Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[Krissykins]

20 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I space, no one can hear Disney scream.

haha I was going to use the tree falling in the woods one. If Lightyear plays in an empty IMAX room and no one is there to see it, did it really play? 
 

18 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I mean, sure. It's not like Elvis made 15M+ true Friday though. One made 5.4M Friday and the other made just over/under 9M Friday. Elvis is doing fine but it's definitely not breaking out with the numbers we're seeing. 

Well obviously Elvis would’ve got the ticket price bump from IMAX and box office boost. 
 

It was only a joke anyway, we know Lightyear is the bomb of the summer and Elvis is actually doing well. 
 

 

Side note: UK opening weekend could be £4m+ for Elvis and could beat Great Gatsby.

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Hollywood needs to be scared to be honest. You cannot convince me that anything other than the conservative outrage about the lesbians is responsible for Lightyear being a bust, and that is astonishing. People I know in real life even stated that they are not seeing it because of propaganda. They are going to try this on other movies since their efforts against Lightyear are so successful                                                                                        

How about the fact that people didn't seem to care for the movie even when it was announced. Blaming a lesbian kiss feels like working backwards from the conclusion you want to derive - only Supreme Court justices are allowed to do that in the US. 

 

The lesbian kiss is way way way down the list of reasons it flopped. It felt like a Cars 2 rather than a Toy Story 5

[filmlover]

60% over 35 for Elvis is a pretty huge accomplishment. As is the B+ CinemaScore for The Black Phone (horror movies rarely poll well with them).

[Cmasterclay]

International numbers for Elvis look good, particularly in France. Maybe they thought he was singing "Suspicious Mimes"

[Eric Prime]

12 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Hollywood needs to be scared to be honest. You cannot convince me that anything other than the conservative outrage about the lesbians is responsible for Lightyear being a bust, and that is astonishing. People I know in real life even stated that they are not seeing it because of propaganda. They are going to try this on other movies since their efforts against Lightyear are so successful                                                                                        

Can we not with this garbage? THR showed that the movie just underperformed everywhere and actually did on par with Sonic 2, which didn't have any baggage behind it.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/lightyear-box-office-family-problem-1235169002/

 

Quote

There’s no hard-and-fast evidence proving that the political conversation hurt Lightyear, although the film did under-index by a fairly large margin in the Midwest, according to a source with access to Comscore regional data. (Toy Story 4 was within the range of normal three years ago in the Midwest.)

 

Disney insiders counter that red-leaning states contributed the same percentage of the overall gross for Lightyear as they did for Sonic 2.

 

Lightyear also under-indexed in the Northeast, where many locales are Democratic-leaning, as well as in Canada. It overperformed in the West and in the Southeast, including in many Hispanic-led markets. (Hispanics made up more than 30 percent of the audience.)

 

Plus 71% of people in the US support same-sex marriage. Those people offended and think it's corrupting kids are the literal minority, and it makes zero sense to capitulate to them from a business perspective. Please stop with this.

 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/393197/same-sex-marriage-support-inches-new-high.aspx

[Cruel Summer]

UGH bLACK PHONE FLOPPED

[Eric Prime]

Deadline's projections

 

1.) Elvis (WB) 3,906 theaters, Fri $12.7M, 3-day $31.5M/Wk 1

2.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 3,948 (-87) theaters, Fri $8.25M (-26%),  3-day $30M (-33%), Total $521.2M/Wk 5

3.) Jurassic World Dominion (Uni) 4,233 (-464) theaters, Fri $7.4M (-53%), 3-day $26.1M (-56%)/Total $302.4M/Wk 3

4.) The Black Phone (Uni) 3,150 theaters, Fri $10.2M, 3-day $23.2M/Wk 1

5.) Lightyear (Dis) 4,255 theaters, Fri $5.4M (-74%)/3-day $17-$19M (-64%), Total $90.1M/Wk 2

6.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 1,855 (-610) theaters, Fri $521k (-53%), 3-day $1.76M (-60%), Total $409.1M/Wk 8

7.) Jug Jugg Jeeyo (Moviegoer) 318 theaters, Fri $235K, 3-day $604K, Wk 1

8.) Everything, Everywhere All at Once (A24) 524 (-155) theaters, Fri $144K (-44%), 3-day $531K (-44%), Total $66.1M/Wk 14

9.) Bob’s Burgers (20th/Dis) 590 (-760) theaters, Fri $156K (-55%), 3-day $511K (-56%), Total  $31M/Wk 5

10.) The Bad Guys (Uni) 1,033 (-461) theaters, Fri $130K (-56%), 3-day $440K (-56%), Total $95.4M /Wk 10

[M37]

31 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Elvis demo.  Yup, still old white women as the primary demo, even more so than other musical bios...

 

Of course, coming in at around $30-32M means this didn't break as big as a lot expected - it just lived in the demo expected...

 

From Deadline...

 

"Elvis skewed heavily female at 58% with a massive 30% over 55 years old...Elvis pulled in a crowd that was close to 80% over 25, 61% over 35 and close to half over 45. Both those over 50 (43%) and the 35+ crowd (60%) on CinemaScore gave Elvis a solid A. Diversity demos were 62% Caucasian, 20% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black, & 11% Asian/other. Elvis triumphed in the South where the movie notched five out of its ten runs. PLF Screens have driven 21% of the box office to date; those screens split among three other titles. Disney has all the Imax for Lightyear." 

Female skewing equivalent of NTTD 

[M37]

15 minutes ago, grim22 said:

How about the fact that people didn't seem to care for the movie even when it was announced. Blaming a lesbian kiss feels like working backwards from the conclusion you want to derive - only Supreme Court justices are allowed to do that in the US. 

 

The lesbian kiss is way way way down the list of reasons it flopped. It felt like a Cars 2 rather than a Toy Story 5

Given the Toy Story brand and past performance, it’s the equivalent of not Cars 2, but Planes

[BruiseCruise]

22 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Hollywood needs to be scared to be honest. You cannot convince me that anything other than the conservative outrage about the lesbians is responsible for Lightyear being a bust, and that is astonishing. People I know in real life even stated that they are not seeing it because of propaganda. They are going to try this on other movies since their efforts against Lightyear are so successful                                                                                        

Lightyear should skew towards young adults who grew up with Toy Story and families with young children which means general younger parents, both of those crowds are far more pro LGBT than say boomers and yet Lightyear bombed

[Valonqar]

Can EEAAO crawl to 70M from 66M and 531K weekend?

 

When is TGM expected to pass a billie? Also, any chance it returns to #1 this weekend?

[filmlover]

Rough hold for Doctor Strange that many will probably attribute to becoming available to watch on D+ (the impact it had on Shang-Chi and Eternals was practically nonexistent since those movies were near the end of their runs by the time they became available on streaming) but hard to tell between the combination of $50M+ in openers and a boost from Father's Day that inflated it last weekend also being factors.

[Alex SciChannel]

30 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

You cannot convince me that anything other than the conservative outrage about the lesbians is responsible for Lightyear being a bust

So you admit to being ignorant and close minded

 

30 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

People I know in real life even stated that they are not seeing it because of propaganda.

Okay anecdote Andy

 

30 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

They are going to try this on other movies since their efforts against Lightyear are so successful           

Why have other films with lgbtq characters been so successful then?

 

This narrative is unsupported and only has biases and feelings behind it. Meanwhile PostTrak data shows that Lightyear's audience was more oriented toward nostalgic adults vs families at 46%. The positive rating is 82% but only a 61% definite recomend, indicating audiences liked it but weren't eager to recommend it to anyone or rewatch it. Also way more progressive Pixar films like Turning Red were very successful on Disney+, showing this theatrical misstep is more due to the rebranding of Pixar as a streaming producer than a theatrical one under Chapek.

Edited June 25, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[BruiseCruise]

my mom has asked me multiple times when top gun maverick will be on tv 

[filmlover]

If every other animated movie for the remainder of the year also underperforms that would alleviate some of the flack Lightyear's performance is receiving (especially when animated movies in general were passed off to streaming by virtually all of the studios throughout the pandemic). But yeah, its numbers are a definite disappointment. Doubt we'll be seeing anymore character spin-offs from Pixar (or Disney Animation, for that matter) going forward.

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Can EEAAO crawl to 70M from 66M and 531K weekend?

 

When is TGM expected to pass a billie? Also, any chance it returns to #1 this weekend?

That's a no on EEAAO, at least for the initial run. Started week at $65.5M, looking at a $900K week then dropping ~50% each ensuing week as it continues to lose showings, so ~$2M more. Maybe it gets a re-release in later Summer (Aug/Labor Day) when the release calendar gets emptier that is just enough to push it over, but that may not even be enough

[M37]

21 minutes ago, Eric Presley said:

Quote

There’s no hard-and-fast evidence proving that the political conversation hurt Lightyear, although the film did under-index by a fairly large margin in the Midwest, according to a source with access to Comscore regional data. (Toy Story 4 was within the range of normal three years ago in the Midwest.)

 

Disney insiders counter that red-leaning states contributed the same percentage of the overall gross for Lightyear as they did for Sonic 2.

 

Lightyear also under-indexed in the Northeast, where many locales are Democratic-leaning, as well as in Canada. It overperformed in the West and in the Southeast, including in many Hispanic-led markets. (Hispanics made up more than 30 percent of the audience.)

 

That Demo/market breakdown convinces me even more that LY's flailing is directly attributable to the Disney+ release effect, because subscriber numbers are the inverse of those over/under performances (D+ is much more a coastal/urban/white user base).

[The Panda]

28 minutes ago, Eric Presley said:

Can we not with this garbage? THR showed that the movie just underperformed everywhere and actually did on par with Sonic 2, which didn't have any baggage behind it.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/lightyear-box-office-family-problem-1235169002/

 

 

Plus 71% of people in the US support same-sex marriage. Those people offended and think it's corrupting kids are the literal minority, and it makes zero sense to capitulate to them from a business perspective. Please stop with this.

 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/393197/same-sex-marriage-support-inches-new-high.aspx

Pretty clear the BO problem with Lightyear is solely because it looked like a dumb cashgrab

Edited June 25, 2022 by The Panda

[excel1]

40 minutes ago, grim22 said:

How about the fact that people didn't seem to care for the movie even when it was announced.

 

...What? That is completely false. go to the first few pages of the damn Lightyear thread. It lit up (pun intended) social media. 100k+ liked tweets, numerous people thinking it would be huge, etc.

 

 

32 minutes ago, Eric Presley said:

Can we not with this garbage? THR showed that the movie just underperformed everywhere and actually did on par with Sonic 2, which didn't have any baggage behind it.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/lightyear-box-office-family-problem-1235169002/

 

 

Plus 71% of people in the US support same-sex marriage. Those people offended and think it's corrupting kids are the literal minority, and it makes zero sense to capitulate to them from a business perspective. Please stop with this.

 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/393197/same-sex-marriage-support-inches-new-high.aspx

 

These types of posts are just off base as a post that blames the same sex kiss exclusively for the flopping. Yes, 71% of support same sex marriage so that people can live their lives happily. That doesn't mean they 71% support showing it in a children's film. 😂  Pretend that number was closer to 50%; and then of the 50% that opposed it, they made up 60% of the usual PIXAR audience. We have now removed a substantial chunk of potential viewers.

 

The larger and more obvious culprit has been the Disney+ scheme no doubt, but its exceptionally naive to act like the same sex kiss didn't deter some very important audience segments. 

Edited June 25, 2022 by excel1

[Valonqar]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

That's a no on EEAAO, at least for the initial run. Started week at $65.5M, looking at a $900K week then dropping ~50% each ensuing week as it continues to lose showings, so ~$2M more. Maybe it gets a re-release in later Summer (Aug/Labor Day) when the release calendar gets emptier that is just enough to push it over, but that may not even be enough

 

Thank you!