Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[vale9001]

For Elvis 

 

7.9/8 on imdb  5K votes

93% audience score on RT

94% likes it on google. 

 

seems like people are liking it. 

[Brainbug]

Solid for both Elvis and Black Phone. Btw, B+ is an excellent CS for a horror film.

 

Awesome for Top Gun as usual. Ok for Dominion ()

Hilariously awful for Lightyear.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Elvis had better deliver. We need this cinematic masterpiece to become a reality:

[LegendaryBen]

8 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

Lol what? TG2 is still looking at around a 32m weekend which would be like a 30% drop from a super inflated previous weekend and with two wide releases this weekend, one of which is a demo comp and only a few premium screens were recovered. Only way this is a disappointment is if you expect some sub 15% drop every weekend which just isn't reasonable when you have competition

I'm out of likes. 100% agree with you on this. Elvis aimed for the same audience as TGM while the millennials may have seen that may have gone to see TBP. 

[Krissykins]

43 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Solid for both Elvis and Black Phone. Btw, B+ is an excellent CS for a horror film.

 

Awesome for Top Gun as usual. Ok for Dominion ()

Hilariously awful for Lightyear.

Scream and The Black Phone both getting a B+. I wonder how Nope will do. 

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Scream and The Black Phone both getting a B+. I wonder how Nope will do. 

 

I think when it comes to Nopes CS, the marketing will be a major factor, i. e. is it misleading or not and what kind of movie are the trailers promising vs what kind of movie we actually get. Even great movies can have shitty CS's if the marketing lied to people. Remains to be seen what happens with Nope.

[Krissykins]

$18m budget for The Black Phone. 

[Jonwo]

Elvis' budget was $85m, weird that Baz's budgets have got lower as Gatsby was $105m and Australia was $130m.

[PhilipJ2001]

1 hour ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Minions will dominate from next week. Superpets drops in late July. This week was the only breathing space it had to recover.

 

that's immaterial. 45 day window on lightyear

[JohnnyGossamer]

JWD continues to pace behind JWFK which had a 9.2M third Friday and 28.6M third weekend. Elvis a bit under what I'd hoped but something around 35M is nice. TGM will get to 32M/33M... Another nice hold. LY... Ugh. Ouch. BF not bad at all... Hopefully it clears 20M+ which is definite huge win. 

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, John Marston said:

Is Lightyear even reaching 300m ww? This isn’t just a flop but a mega bomb

 

Yes, if it's under $300M BO WW, we'll have our 1st true post Covid era bomb for a blockbuster budget movie...

[vafrow]

34 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Elvis' budget was $85m, weird that Baz's budgets have got lower as Gatsby was $105m and Australia was $130m.

In that timeframe, the box office prospects for non IP films have only gotten worse. Very few directors can command sizable budgets when working outside franchise films. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Minions will dominate from next week. Superpets drops in late July. This week was the only breathing space it had to recover.

 

And Paws of Fury, another "who greenlit this?" movie, is mid-July...so Lightyear will get dropped at small and medium size theaters by Pets, if not by Paws...

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

B+ cinemascore for Black Phone is great for horror.

 

Doesn't surprise me: saw it last night. Weirdly, it's quite definitively not *amazing*, but it also has a veneer of competence, enjoyment and good acting/plot that it's got a real floor in its reception. Like, anyone can go and enjoy it. Picked some holes in it afterwards, mostly in that the two tangential plots barely interact with the main story - which is maybe only 45 minute worth of content, but even those tangential plots are enjoyable in their way and the film feels like a nice little drive in the hills of the supernatural.

 

What's interesting about that dynamic is it comes from the film's deliberate attempt to barely ever really go for *scares*. There are a few jumps in there, but it eschews fear and instead goes for something more akin to a supernatural thriller, and I think that's going to do it well.

 

Hope it does well. Horror needs it.

Edited June 25, 2022 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

In that timeframe, the box office prospects for non IP films have only gotten worse. Very few directors can command sizable budgets when working outside franchise films. 

TBH $85m is still a hefty amount for a biopic. I would say that studios are rightly not being overindulgent for certain films. I remember the James L Brooks film How Do You Know costing $120m and bombing, that's not a film that needed even half that budget.

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

Elvis' budget was $85m, weird that Baz's budgets have got lower as Gatsby was $105m and Australia was $130m.

 

Gatsby probably needs 40M just for the cast (20-25m Di Caprio and 15M for Maguire and Mulligan. 

Butler didn't make for this movie more than 1-2M. I bet he will take some kind of big bonus if the movie reaches a certain goal at the box office. 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by vale9001

[M37]

Looks like an unsurprising weekend 

 

Elvis - below what some had hoped, but still a solid number given the weakness in adult drama market 

TGM - still a fantastic hold, despite facing most competition of its run 

JWD - the reviews look to be catching up to it, but not cratering either 

Black Phone - above expectations in a horror starved market 

Lightyear - a yikes number, big drop, but not wholly unexpected with families watching budget and knowing the D+ release is close 

[LegendaryBen]

Although TBP may have the 17 day PVOD window, The Forever Purge last year dealt with that; yet, ended up with a 3.54 multiplier. Assuming it gets a $7.5M+ Saturday (assuming a good Sunday drop), it may finish with $80-90M, but the more, the merrier for this critically acclaimed horror film.

Edited June 25, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[charlie Jatinder]

Elvis 12.75

TBP 10.25

TGM 8.3

JWD 7.5

Lightyear 5.4

[LegendaryBen]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Elvis 12.75

TBP 10.25

TGM 8.3

JWD 7.5

Lightyear 5.4

I hope Elvis doesn't fall below $30M OW. It can still make it to $100m with excellent WOM despite the unnecessary 45-day window (HBO Max, long shot, but should extend the window to 60 days). Meanwhile, great for TBP and TGM. Even if TBP barely increases today vs. True Friday, its still on track for $23-24M weekend. $25M is still within reach with a solid $80-90M total. More impressed with it than Elvis. TGM continues to hold well. $30M 4th weekend is still on the table and might still have a chance to take the top spot this weekend. $600M is obviously locked unless Minions 2 opens better than its predecessor and Thor 4 opens better than NWH. JWD's chances of $400M are over but $350M will still happen.

 

LY will drop over 60%. Even with Minions 2 possibly opening worse than LY, it will see another 60%+ drop next weekend.

Edited June 25, 2022 by LegendaryBen