Weekend thread 7/15-7/17 | Actuals: Thor 4 46.63M, Minions 26.83, Crawdads 17.25, TGM 12.26, Elvis 8, Paws of Fury 6.31

[Johnny Tran]

I don't remember seeing "The Batman is a flop" on here.. is that a strawman? 

The Batman was the first movie in a new series and did close to $800M on an abbreviated theater run.. 

 

It also had really good legs and was a critical success. 

 

Hows that not a big hit all around?

[Lestranger]

Nope had lots of buzz right in the beginning. I was super hyped. I loved Get Out and US, and I thought the first teaser was really well done. But for some reason my excitement has faded a lot. I don’t get the general vibe people are super stoked for the movie at all. The marketing spend alone gets it to a certain ow, but I think it will underperform significantly.
 

The main problem is the marketing started out well by teasing some big mystery. But each subsequent trailer just continued that shtick and it got boring.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

“huge hit”? Come on now. It looks like it will barely pass 700m and maybe kot even reach it. On a 250m budget not including marketing. It will be mildly profitable at best and definitely below what Disney was hoping

Thor will be grossing $340M DOM & $375M+ INT.

 

Thats will be giving Disney $370M+ theatrical share, almost $120M surplus for budget theatrically alone.

 

Then there is home media, TV, etc revenue which will more than easily cover marketing, overheads & participation costs. 

 

Disney will end up making $100M+ from film.

 

Besides 25M+ admits in USA is a Super Hit level of biz.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

Dude, you will be disappointed to see your name attached to such ridiculous statements. Fact is that no IM or CA film came to close to 500m but Thor should have? lol

1. MCU audience is a lot bigger than it was during IM 3 & Civil War.

 

2. You have a Captain Marvel moving doing $425M+. A Black Panther movie doing $700M. A Thor movie can EASILY do $500M+.

 

3. It's all ifs and whats now so not really objective. Give me Ragnarok level action and film, I will give you nearly $500M for L&T.

[filmnerdjamie]

32 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I don't remember seeing "The Batman is a flop" on here.. is that a strawman? 

The Batman was the first movie in a new series and did close to $800M on an abbreviated theater run.. 

 

It also had really good legs and was a critical success. 

 

Hows that not a big hit all around?

 

Only butthurt Snyder Cultists are claiming it failed. 

[Cooper Legion]

IM3 did comfortably over 500M equivalent. CW right around there. CM and IM1 quite close, probably 500M in 2023 conditions.

[Doffy]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1. MCU audience is a lot bigger than it was during IM 3 & Civil War.

 

2. You have a Captain Marvel moving doing $425M+. A Black Panther movie doing $700M. A Thor movie can EASILY do $500M+.

 

3. It's all ifs and whats now so not really objective. Give me Ragnarok level action and film, I will give you nearly $500M for L&T.

BP is a culture phenomenon it's played like an event movie.

[Doffy]

4 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

IM3 did comfortably over 500M equivalent. CW right around there. CM and IM1 quite close, probably 500M in 2023 conditions.

IM3 is beast even CW didn't beat it.

[Liiviig 1998]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor will be grossing $340M DOM & $375M+ INT.

 

Thats will be giving Disney $370M+ theatrical share, almost $120M surplus for budget theatrically alone.

 

Then there is home media, TV, etc revenue which will more than easily cover marketing, overheads & participation costs. 

 

Disney will end up making $100M+ from film.

 

Besides 25M+ admits in USA is a Super Hit level of biz.

 

100m at best and still wouldn't  call that a huge hit .

 

Marvel movies is a very profitable franchise .  

 

Do you have any data on ragnarok post threatrical revenue so we can guage but that was five years ago and really doubt home media sales are as strong back then.

 

Ragnarok had 174m profit on way bigger Gross and lesser pdt  budget.

 

It will be a success but far from the so called "huge" hit your claiming.

Context of the  kind of franchise also matters . 

 

What is the TLT marketing budget?

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

IM3 did comfortably over 500M equivalent. CW right around there. CM and IM1 quite close, probably 500M in 2023 conditions.

And IM3 itself was eh final. Should have done $500M with that start if it was good film.

[harrisonisdead]

45 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Well, I preferred US to Get Out too. 

So do I! But it's definitely an unpopular opinion on the internet so it's weird that those I know irl share it. Maybe I just subconsciously gravitate toward the kind of people who'd like Us.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

On a CPI adjusted basis, here are the first 3 phases domestic numbers translated to June 2022 rates (latest available data)....

 

 

Phase 1

Iron Man = $436M

The Incredible Hulk = $181.5M

Iron Man 2 = $424M
Thor = $237M
Captain America = $232M
The Avengers = $804M 

Phase 2
Iron Man 3 = $520M

Thor: TDW = $262M 
CA: WS = $325M 

GOTG = $416M

Age of Ultron = $572M
Ant-Man = $224M

 

Phase 3

CA: CW = $503M

Doctor Strange = $286M

GOTG V2 = $472M

Spider-Man: HC = $404M
Thor: Ragnarok = $381M

Black Panther = $833M
Avengers: IW = $800M

Captain Marvel = $498M
Avengers: EG = $993M

Spider-Man: FFH = $451M

 

 

[Cappoedameron]

I have never seen a fanbase defend a film the way Marvel fans do. To me aside from No Way Home, Phase 4 has been a whole lot of meh to bad.

 

Marvel released a tweet that said Phase 4 is over 50 hours of content. 50 hours of content and yet only 10 hours is watchable IMO.

 

Love and Thunder's cheeziness reminded me of the first Suicide Squad movie and that got ripped apart by fans alike as a movie that had no plot or substance and felt like just a 2 hour dump of montages. 

 

Those same people that trashed Suicide Squad defend Love and Thunder. Yet the two share a lot of things in common. From it's all over cheeziness to it's non-existent plotline.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Cappoedameron

[The Dark Alfred]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1. MCU audience is a lot bigger than it was during IM 3 & Civil War.

 

2. You have a Captain Marvel moving doing $425M+. A Black Panther movie doing $700M. A Thor movie can EASILY do $500M+.

 

3. It's all ifs and whats now so not really objective. Give me Ragnarok level action and film, I will give you nearly $500M for L&T.

 

You are obviously incorrect and way off with that 500m talk. Captain America with the whole Avengers crew in it couldn't get near 500m. Ragnarok showed you that Thor has its limit, the film had a great reaction and WoM, but didn't get anywhere near 400m. Had LT been as good as Ragnarok it could have done GotG 2, DS2 numbers. That is the cealing domestically for this weak franchise.

 

Once you made a couple of average films in a franchise (now 3 out of 4), it's difficult to convince people to turn out for your film en masse. Not to mention the fact that since RDJ left NWH nothwithstanding the recent MCU films were trash. The 500m talk is an unrealistic pipe dream.

Edited July 18, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[RichWS]

I'll never forget watching the big underground climax of Us and realizing, "Oh wow, he's gone full Shyamalan."

[ThomasNicole]

21 minutes ago, RichWS said:

I'll never forget watching the big underground climax of Us and realizing, "Oh wow, he's gone full Shyamalan."

And we love him for that

[ThomasNicole]

I think Get Out is the better movie, but i liked watching US way more 

 

Similarly to Hereditary / Midsommar to me 

[longleo90]

lol boxofficemojo is troll

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3523577345/

[jedijake]

Funny with all the massively front loaded MCU films, nobody every goes back and talks about the weirdly massive front loaded Deathly Hallows 2. Movie had acclaimed reviews and was loved by all fans yet dropped 73% in its second weekend and ended with a 2.24 multiplier.

[ThomasNicole]

44 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

I have never seen a fanbase defend a film the way Marvel fans do. To me aside from No Way Home, Phase 4 has been a whole lot of meh to bad.

 

Marvel released a tweet that said Phase 4 is over 50 hours of content. 50 hours of content and yet only 10 hours is watchable IMO.

 

Love and Thunder's cheeziness reminded me of the first Suicide Squad movie and that got ripped apart by fans alike as a movie that had no plot or substance and felt like just a 2 hour dump of montages. 

 

Those same people that trashed Suicide Squad defend Love and Thunder. Yet the two share a lot of things in common. From it's all over cheeziness to it's non-existent plotline.

This seems way too anedoctal to be any truthful. 

 

Even MCU fans are trashing this movie for 2 weeks, just go on social media. If they're so blinded as a whole i'm sure it wouldn't get a B+ cinemascore on opening night lol 

 

And how exactly can you say the same people that trash SS praise Thor? They have extremelly similar grades from audiences.

 

There's a good chance Thor will have worse legs than SS actually, i mean... where this comparisson came from?