Weekend - 07/29-07/31 | Super Pets 23M

[Eric Prime]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Let's not overreact to one (DI inflated) Friday/Friday hold.  Best weekly decline so far has been -17%, and looks to be a clear second/third option, performing well in absence of new releases, which means it could thrive in the dog days of August in September

 

... but that also presumes it doesn't get the usual 45-day release onto HBO Max and undercut that potential

Baz has already stated it’s not coming to HBO Max in August. Probably not until Labor Day tbh.

 

 

Plus David Zaslav has already stated he’s pushing for more theatrical releases and is killing HBO Max from the inside by removing a bunch of Warner-owned TV shows with no warning and even ridding of Max Original Movies, and is already cutting costs down and shutting departments like the Live-Action Kids department. He’s really the only studio head who cares about theatrical these days

[LegendaryBen]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Let's not overreact to one (DI inflated) Friday/Friday hold.  Best weekly decline so far has been -17%, and looks to be a clear second/third option, performing well in absence of new releases, which means it could thrive in the dog days of August in September

 

... but that also presumes it doesn't get the usual 45-day release onto HBO Max and undercut that potential

 

If USA follows suit, Elvis will be available on HBOMAX on 08/29 and I checked the HBO Schedule for August and it doesn't have Elvis. On September 3, it has a blank spot opened between 8 and 10:40, and that's Elvis' runtime, so it's an assumption it will premiere on HBOMAX 3 weeks later than the 45-day traditional period for WB 2022 movies.

[LegendaryBen]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Huh? What numbers are you looking at? It’ll be at $80m tomorrow night. 
 

To barely make another $20m after a $19m weekend? In summer? With no big competition? 
 

Nope will be going over $120m. 

Plus, it lost some of its PLF screens to Pets already. While Bullet Train will still hurt it, it may still be at $10m for its 3rd weekend. DL confirmed that despite it opened below $50m last weekend, it will have a 31-day window before it goes to PVOD.

[M37]

2 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

 

If USA follows suit, Elvis will be available on HBOMAX on 08/29 and I checked the HBO Schedule for August and it doesn't have Elvis. On September 3, it has a blank spot opened between 8 and 10:40, and that's Elvis' runtime, so it's an assumption it will premiere on HBOMAX 3 weeks later than the 45-day traditional period for WB 2022 movies.

That’s some good detective work!

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, M37 said:

That’s some good detective work!

Speaking of HBOMax movies, Kevin Hart and Dwayne Johnson may have some leeway to extend the 45-day window due to lack of family movies for the rest of the summer and the whole month of September, which may still allow SP to gross $100m domestically.

[vale9001]

8 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

 

If USA follows suit, Elvis will be available on HBOMAX on 08/29 and I checked the HBO Schedule for August and it doesn't have Elvis. On September 3, it has a blank spot opened between 8 and 10:40, and that's Elvis' runtime, so it's an assumption it will premiere on HBOMAX 3 weeks later than the 45-day traditional period for WB 2022 movies.

 

 

Luhrmann said it will be on streaming in the fall. I think late september but i wouldn't be surprised late october too. Perfect date to be in the award season talking. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, wildphantom said:

we’ve discussed this before @TwoMisfits, but wouldn’t you class the likes of MoM and L&T as family movies that have been huge hits? In fact, that demo is probably their biggest in terms of box office. 
 

I simply think Superpets didn’t appeal to as big an audience as other animated movies have. Nothing to do with habits changing.

 

As you know, I place the underperformance of Lightyear firmly on Disney’s Disney+ debacle they need to resolve asap. 

 

When all is said and done, most of this year’s biggest hits would have had massive family audiences attendance. This audience isn’t just exclusive to animated movies.  This demo is still spending plenty of $$ on going to the movies. As long as the movie appeals and the studios aren’t giving them away within weeks, we’re all good. 

 

No, they are different - unlike Super Pets and Bad Guys, MoM and Thor are not kid-drawing family movies...they are adult-drawing family movies.  WAY different clientele.

 

Adult-drawing family movies have ALL the benefits of adult-only drawing movies while also getting adults who can bring older kids or who bring younger ones to avoid babysitter costs.  Adults ALWAYS are willing to pay for their own fun, especially if they are part of the discounted base.  So, these almost always tend to beat adult-only skewing fare.  This is why supers that don't exclude/repel families have done so well...

 

Kid-drawing family movies have NONE of the benefits of adult-only drawing movies and really rely on pulling out GA at full cost, since most movie subscribers are not subscribers for these movies.  They tend to always LOSE to adult-drawing family movies and lately, b/c of the price escalation and changed move habits, lose to a lot of adult skewing only movies, which used to be REALLY hard b/c they only need to make 1/4 of the sales of those movies b/c again, families buy for 4, not 1, so convince mom to buy a ticket, you get 3 easy buys.  But again, this base is not around.

 

Edited July 30, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Issac Newton]

From Deadline Hollywood

 

1.) DC League of Super-Pets 4,314 theaters, Fri $9.3M, 3-day $23M/Wk 1

 

2. ) Nope (Uni) 3,807 (+22) theaters, Fri $5.8M (-70%)/3-day $19M (-57%)/Total $81M/Wk 2

 

3.) Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) 3,650 (-720) theaters, Fri. $3.75M (-41%), 3-day $13.1M (-41%)/Total $301.5M /Wk 4

 

4.) Minions: Rise of Gru (Uni) 3,579 theaters (-237), Fri $3.3M (-37%), 3-day $11.36M (-37%), Total: $320.8M/Wk 5

 

5.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 3,008 (-152) theaters, Fri $2.4M (-11%), 3-day $8.5M (-17%), Total $650.4M/Wk 10

 

6.) Where the Crawdads Sings (Sony) 3,526 theaters (-124), Fri $2.3M (-26%) , 3-day $7.5M (-27%)/Total $53.5M/Wk 3

 

7.) Elvis (WB) 2,901 (-204) theaters, Fri $1.7M (-7%), , 3-day $6M (-9%) Total $129.1M/Wk 6

 

8.) The Black Phone (Uni) 1,638 (-417) theaters, Fri $750K (-31%), 3-day $2.47M (-30%)/Total $83M/Wk 6

 

9.) Jurassic World Dominion (Uni) 1,747 (-420) theaters, Fri $580K (-33%), 3-day $2.05M (-34%), Total $369.4M/Wk 7

 

10.) Vengeance (Foc) 998 theatres, Fri $650K, 3-day $1.6M/Wk 1

[vale9001]

We have learned 4 things from this summer

 

1) adults are here again.

 

2) not franchises or sequels can do great numbers again. Crawdads and The Black Phone 90M+, Nope and Elvis 100-150M.

 

3) family audiences are not here again. Minions was saved by teens and young people under 30. 

This has a negative impact of course for every animation movie and also for the blockbusters (both Thor and JW did great but under the expectations. They missed something in the total).

 

4) See point 3. Families seem (maybe for a familiar budget thing) the target most damaged by the streaming effect. They prefer to wait to watch a movie. So the impact of these short windows is strong and the damage is stronger for the same movies of the point 3 (animated movies and blockbusters with also some family appeal).

All the movies with no streaming releases in few weeks from top gun to crawdads are holding very well. 

In some way it's like the tagline "Only in theaters" in the promotional materials makes them somethig special for the audience after 2 and half year of movies everyone could see "for free". 

Edited July 30, 2022 by vale9001

[Issac Newton]

Vengeance received a B+ CinemaScore and lower PostTrak exits at 76% in the top boxes and a 57% recommend. Guys decided to buy tickets at 57% with 54% between 18-34 and the largest demo being 34% for those 25-34. Diversity demos were 66% Caucasian, 16% Latino and Hispanic, 10% Asian/other and 8% Black. Best markets for Vengeance were West and South Central, with seven of the top ten theatres coming from California and Texas, the latter where the Novack pic takes place. 

[Issac Newton]

Super-Pets drew 51% men with 73% under 35, and 44% under 25; the largest demo being 25-34 at 29%. Diversity demos were 41% Caucasian, a hearty 26% Latino and Hispanic, 14% Asian and 11% Black. The pic played best in between the coasts with the South Central the strongest. AMC Burbank was the No. 1 theater in the country so far with close to $20K. No Imax auditoriums here, but PLFs are accounting for 13% of weekend ticket sales to date.

 

More deep dive demos from PostTrak: Women over 25 repped 29% of the audience, guys over 25 drew 27%, men under 25 were 24% while women under 25 were 20%. On CinemaScore, 36% of the under 18 demo gave Super Pets an A, while 47% of the under 25 gave it an A, and 58% of the under 35 also graded the Warner Bros title an A.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

TOP GUN: MAVERICK HIGHWAY TO $700M DAY 64

 

BLACK PANTHER: $33.3m ahead

TOP GUN 2 GAIN: +$1.2m

 

CURRENT SEA LEVEL: $666.5m

LOCK ON BOGEY: $689.1m

AVERAGE (LAST 37 DAYS): $683.87m (+0.02% YD)

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Eric the Superdog said:

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office-dc-league-of-super-pets-dwayne-johnson-kevin-hart-1235081099/

 

 

Really thought the IM would have been better, and I know it'll still leg out fine, but doing on par with Smallfoot is pretty yeesh-worthy.

 

Super-pets did not grab any of Minions 13-25 non-family audience...Demo breakdown (when Minions was 89% under 25 and 43% 13-17)...looks a lot like Lightyear, I think...maybe it was the same - at this small box office size, some free subscriber goers plus a majority of family fans of the main brand product...

 

"Super-Pets drew 51% men with 73% under 35, and 44% under 25; the largest demo being 25-34 at 29%. Diversity demos were 41% Caucasian, a hearty 26% Latino and Hispanic, 14% Asian and 11% Black. The pic played best in between the coasts with the South Central the strongest..."

"More deep dive demos from PostTrak: Women over 25 repped 29% of the audience, guys over 25 drew 27%, men under 25 were 24% while women under 25 were 20%. On CinemaScore, 36% of the under 18 demo gave Super Pets an A, while 47% of of the under 25 gave it an A, and 58% of the under 35 also graded the Warner Bros title an A. Again, hopefully all of this works to bigger numbers today."

Edited July 30, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

I said it opening weekend and I'll say it again now, now that all of the major animated movies have opened this summer.

 

Whoever at Universal started the meme for Minions should get a 6 figure bonus, a 50% salary raise, and a promotion.  Whoever that was made Universal an enormous box office bundle they wouldn't have made without it...

 

PS - And I want to point out, this summer, TMobile and Atom have not joined together for any animated movie ticket deals.  Not sure how much effect this has had, but I guess we'll see if they join any in the fall and if it makes a difference.

Edited July 30, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Eric Prime]

I know that it's a fun scapegoat to blame streaming for everything, and I'm not saying it's entirely invalid, but almost all the animated crop this year either had little going for them or were handicapped in some way that I don't think we can just blame it on Netflix or kids not interested in theaters.

 

The Bad Guys: This was unfortunately hindered by the whole “nostalgic toy commercials reign supreme” issue. It's currently plaguing the box office altogether, barring a few solid hits here and there, and even animated movies, which always pump out big original IPs, aren't really safe anymore. Even so, this was also put up against insane April competition that made it hard for it to stand out. If they put it in March (which they did for its overseas rollout, so there’s no excuse of not being ready), where it only had to deal with The Batman and get some solid spring break money from kids out of school, it wouldn't have been massive per se, but it would have easily passed the century mark and would have probably got around the midrange of Dreamworks box office.

 

Lightyear: The convenience of Disney+ hurts it yes, but this movie’s concept is absurdly cynical, even in this garbage capitalist hellscape we now live in, and it earned mediocre reception across the board. There’s very little you can do when your movie is considered a 5/10. Plus action-oriented animation has rarely performed well, unless you have a lot of comedy and silly humor infused in the project like Incredibles or Big Hero 6 or Kung Fu Panda. The only exceptions are Into the Spider-Verse, which is based off the biggest superhero ever, and the How to Train Your Dragon franchise. And those movies sell themselves on the E.T.-style friendship than the Viking action.

 

Paws of Fury: It looked no different from all the crappy CGI kids movies from the 2000s like Valiant or Space Chimps. Why on Earth would it have done well?

 

Super Pets: I actually thought the concept had potential as a “combines everything kids like” kind of deal, so I get why it was greenlit, but in execution, the film's a cheap-looking, average attempt to capitalize on Secret Life of Pets, a franchise that collapsed in 2019. It’s no different from all those Shrek ripoffs in the 2000s, except it’s for a movie franchise nobody cares about anymore. And while I doubt Marvel's Super Pets would do much better, I’d also argue to an extent that DC is a brand that hasn’t really been targeting kids for a while. There’s still Teen Titans Go and stuff, and the PG-13 movies will always have a kid audience in them, but there’s been three R-rated DC movies in the past three years. Plus Superman hasn’t been in a movie in 5 years and hasn’t been a star in any DC cartoon since like...Justice League Unlimited, and that ended 16 years ago (god that’s weird to say). Why would a 6-year-old in 2022 care about Superman and The Flash being in this?

 

The two big animated hits this year were Sonic 2 (yes I know it’s not “animated” but come on) and Minions 2. Both are nostalgic toy commercials that got a massive periphery demographic interested in tuning in because of a strong ad campaign, are based off massive, nostalgic properties that’s still super popular with all audiences, and their parent companies actually give a crap about theaters, since nobody cares about their streaming service. So this is basically a long-winded way of me saying that Puss in Boots 2 will be a strong hit this Christmas.

[vale9001]

This weekend Elvis will surpass Ghostbuters. 

[Chaz]

Damn! Elvis could have a legit shot at $150 million.

[babz06]

Super-pets opening under Space Jam 2 is a surprise to me. 

[Maggie]

18 minutes ago, Chaz said:

Damn! Elvis could have a legit shot at $150 million.

Bigger than The Great Gatsby!!!  It's official Austin>>Leo

Edited July 30, 2022 by Maggie

[vale9001]

14 minutes ago, Chaz said:

Damn! Elvis could have a legit shot at $150 million.

After a 6% drop this weekend even with loosing 300 screens and the very few new releases for all august honestly 150 are like in lock. 

With other 5m, 4m, 4m 3.5M weeknd for all august it stays at 145M. And weekdays have been strong. 

I would say 160M are on shot now.