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What Will The Next Film To Do 200M-300M?

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2 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

The last DCEU movie to open over 100 was over 5 years ago, so props to Adam if it happens 😆

 

Well even I'm not drinking that much Kool-Aid. :hahaha:

 

(plus it's only at a 33% chance to hit 90m OW even according to the probably iffy DC/Marvel modeling)

Edited by Porthos
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8 hours ago, Porthos said:

More to the point, maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Aid when it comes to @The Eric King's Quorum tracking, but that's currently pointing to a decent shot at a 70m opener for BA, depending on just how solid the DC/Marvel comp system is.

But with Wakanda Forever coming 3 weeks later to eat BA’s lunch, a $70M opening wouldn’t be enough; likely needs $80-$90M OW/$100M+ OWeek to have a shot at a $200M finish 

 

At best, it probably lands in Sonic 2/Fast 9 range, rather than reaching Venom 2/Shang-Chi heights (and personally I think more Shazam)

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4 hours ago, M37 said:

But with Wakanda Forever coming 3 weeks later to eat BA’s lunch, a $70M opening wouldn’t be enough; likely needs $80-$90M OW/$100M+ OWeek to have a shot at a $200M finish 

 

At best, it probably lands in Sonic 2/Fast 9 range, rather than reaching Venom 2/Shang-Chi heights (and personally I think more Shazam)

 

I was commenting more on the possibility of it missing $100m DOM total, than anything else.

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On 9/19/2022 at 7:51 AM, JWR said:

None of these are guarantees but they do seem like the most likely candidates.

 

This year:

Black Adam 

Puss in Boots 

 

2023:

Ant-Man 3

Guardians 3

Fast X

The Little Mermaid

Across the Spider-Verse 

Elemental

Dune Part 2

 


why would guardians 3 have such a huge drop from the previous 2 films?

Edited by eddyxx
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19 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

Yeah Puss in Boots won't do it. 2022 will be the first time since 1995 that a film didn't gross in the 200M range. That's bleak af

Welcome to the new now.

Streaming has bit into theater grosses. That is beyond debate.

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9 hours ago, dudalb said:

Welcome to the new now.

Streaming has bit into theater grosses. That is beyond debate.

Yeah but I'm not quite convinced it's any one thing, like streaming. The vibe I'm getting is that movies are just not as big a deal for people, period. It feels like people don't really talk about movies - theatrical or streaming - anymore. I've brought the topic up on other online communities I'm a part of and, *crickets*.

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Just now, Verrows said:

Yeah but I'm not quite convinced it's any one thing, like streaming. The vibe I'm getting is that movies are just not as big a deal for people, period. It feels like people don't really talk about movies - theatrical or streaming - anymore. I've brought the topic up on other online communities I'm a part of and, *crickets*.

Outside of the grind of life, social media has everyone's attention, at least from my view.

 

*This was supposed to be an edit, not a quote of myself. Ugh, I'm tired.

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On 12/4/2022 at 8:46 PM, Eric Dielman said:

Yeah Puss in Boots won't do it. 2022 will be the first time since 1995 that a film didn't gross in the 200M range. That's bleak af

... is it? Would have happened in 2019 if It2 made like, 6% less (or 42% more, for that matter). 2019 was pretty great.   

 

We could have avoided it this year if Thor did 13% less, but that hardly would have made the year better -- would have been worse.     

 

I don't really see the significance of the 200-300M nominal gross range, it's just sort of a random function of ticket prices and appeal distribution of movies scheduled for the year that it happens to be empty. With 2019 prices we'd have thor in 200s. With 2023 prices we'd have sonic in 200s. Quirk of fate.

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