Halloween Weekend Thread (10/28-30) | Weekend Estimates: Adam 27.7, Paradise 10, Devil 7, Smile 5, Ends 3.8

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

7.5
3.2
2.8

BA, ticket, Prey previews included?

[YSLDC]

So, around 28 million second weekend? 

[JeepCSC]

35 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

But but when a movie comes out in a year shoudnt mean anything about its award chances i thought? So when you, as a movie, come out in December, it shoudnt mean that you could count on ... i dont know ... recency bias or something like that to have better chances right?

 

Right?

I think the point is October is awfully early to be declaring locks. Race is fairly fluid at this point. From what I hear, Farrell’s role might be a bit light, so while nomination seems good a win might be a stretch. Fraser and Butler are still likely the frontrunners until the critics start weighing in.

[Legion Again]

 

55 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

BA, ticket, Prey previews included?

 

If so, 27 (-60%)

11.5 (-30%)

7-8M OW

Edited October 29, 2022 by Legion By Night

[Legion Again]

Probably 160-170ish from there, bit under 2.5x. Pretty much expected trajectory.

[Flopped]

32 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

 

 

If so, 27 (-60%)

11.5 (-30%)

7-8M OW

TTP does 11.5 off of only 3.2 Friday? 

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Flopped said:

TTP does 11.5 off of only 3.2 Friday? 

 

Definitely feasible. That's only a +50% Sat and -30% Sunday. 

[filmlover]

That would be an amazing drop for Ticket to Paradise. With the barren non-Marvel marketplace coming up over the next month it might leg it out to $75M+.

Edited October 29, 2022 by filmlover

[Eric is Anxious]

No joke, I was at the grocery store yesterday, and while I was in the bread section, there were two old ladies talking about Ticket to Paradise with each other. The word-of-mouth hype is real!

[Boxofficerules]

Any word on Terrifier 2

[M37]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That would be an amazing drop for Ticket to Paradise. With the barren non-Marvel marketplace coming up over the next month it might leg it out to $75M+.

$75M would be the same OWeek/DOM ratio as Crawdads (~3.2x), so seems plausible, though maybe on high end. At least $70M (~3x, like Dog) is on the table, if TTP doesn’t get battered by BPWF and can hold a decent number of locations through Thanksgiving up until Avatar 

[Nikostar]

TILL got an A+ Cinamascore. Next up BPWK

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

$75M would be the same OWeek/DOM ratio as Crawdads (~3.2x), so seems plausible, though maybe on high end. At least $70M (~3x, like Dog) is on the table, if TTP doesn’t get battered by BPWF and can hold a decent number of locations through Thanksgiving up until Avatar 

Seems plausible, the four weekends after Black Panther to the weekend before Avatar currently has only six (or seven, depending on how wide they plan to take Bones and All Thanksgiving weekend) confirmed wide releases.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Legion By Night said:

 

 

If so, 27 (-60%)

11.5 (-30%)

7-8M OW

Nice for TTP. Sat drop just 22%. 75-80M full may be.

 

 

[grim22]

Watched Ticket to Paradise yesterday. Good movie if you focus on just the Clooney and Roberts part. Unfortunately the younger couple plot keeps intruding on it and dragging it down.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Watched Ticket to Paradise yesterday. Good movie if you focus on just the Clooney and Roberts part. Unfortunately the younger couple plot keeps intruding on it and dragging it down.

It wasn't really an issue in first two acts. Third part just overall drags.

[Eric is Anxious]

Just as a quick bit of self-promotion, the Coen Brothers Countdown thread, following up both 2020's Spielberg countdown and 2021's Scorsese countdown is now up and running. With Halloween all done, feel free to marathon some Coens from now until Thanksgiving and get your votes out there. You have a minimum of 5 (though please vote for more than that), so you have no excuse not to check this out!

 

 

[M37]

Halloween Ends $1.14M (-54%). Not even the titular holiday can halt the decline, 10% worse than Kills on same pre-Halloween Friday 

[GOGODanca]

So the lesson from Bros and TTP is that don't make your romcom a theatrical release unless you have megastar leads

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

Halloween Ends $1.14M (-54%). Not even the titular holiday can halt the decline, 10% worse than Kills on same pre-Halloween Friday 

This won't even hit $65M at this point. So embarrassing.

 

From The Numbers:

 

-

(-)

TÁR

$340,000

+478%

+112%

1,087

$313

$1,807,823

22