THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[Ozymandias]

Theaters will become a thing for the poors while our wealthy betters stay home streaming sipping wine in their surround sound home theaters.

[Cmasterclay]

It isn't really an income thing tbh, there's been plenty written about how the average white Trump voter is actually higher income than white liberal Biden supporters. It's much more about education levels than income. The white dude in the Charlotte exurbs who runs a sprinkler installation business pretty much invented the home theater system!

[Hades]

1 hour ago, AnDr3s said:

it seems the one billion worldwide for every mcu movie club of 2022 really went 0/3

Expect another 0/3 for 2023 

[Eric Prime]

@Cmasterclay Okay, I think I found some good data.

 

MPAA's data showed that white audiences only made up 54% of moviegoers last year, below the 62% general population from the 2020 Census. Likewise, at-home viewing (includes pay tv, streaming, digital, DVD, etc.) is around the 60% range, depending on the format. Below the general population, but the disparity is there. Age demos also have ages 40+ underindexing like crazy in terms of theatrical business. Granted also with home viewing apart from cable.

 

https://www.motionpictures.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/MPA-2021-THEME-Report-FINAL.pdf

 

By comparison, in 2019, white moviegoers, while still below the general population, is still at 57%. The ages were also much more in line with the general population too. At-home viewing also saw big increases as well with white people and ages compared to 2019. Couldn't find anything when it comes to income or education, but the viewer shifting is absolutely real, and that's definitely hurting some movies. Whether theaters getting "less white" is a good or bad thing is up to you of course, and that's arguably a conversation for a whole other day.

[LonePirate]

39 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's not all white people though, as everything from Top Gun to Trouble in Paradise proves. It is specifically college-educated, comfortably middle-class professionals who drive a certain type of Oscar-caliber movie.

In the context of today's marketplace, Ticket to Paradise may be considered a hit or a success; but we need to be real here. Five years ago, this film would have had little trouble clearing $150M DOM, maybe even $200M due to its star power and accessible subject matter. However, it's going to need Thanksgiving weekend help to outgross Morbius for crying out loud. That is pathetic and I say that as someone who enjoyed Ticket to Paradise. Adult appeal films, not just rom coms, are really struggling right now.

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, LonePirate said:

In the context of today's marketplace, Ticket to Paradise may be considered a hit or a success; but we need to be real here. Five years ago, this film would have had little trouble clearing $150M DOM, maybe even $200M due to its star power and accessible subject matter. However, it's going to need Thanksgiving weekend help to outgross Morbius for crying out loud. That is pathetic and I say that as someone who enjoyed Ticket to Paradise. Adult appeal films, not just rom coms, are really struggling right now.

I agree with this and said the same thing last week! But I was said to be too negative.

[John Marston]

People exaggerating about audiences changing habits because not every movie is a hit. The fact is movies that have no appeal will not do well and has always been t case. Make stuff people want to see and they will come. It’s even happened this year with many no. Blockbusters (Elvis, Crawdads, Smile, Ticket to Paradise)

Edited November 13, 2022 by John Marston

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

16 minutes ago, Hades said:

Expect another 0/3 for 2023 

 

With no China/Russia it's likely. There's a good shot that the next $1B MCU film won't happen until Deadpool 3. 

[Reed121]

Hollywood Reporter says the demographic breakdown according to PostTrak was

 

Black: 34%

Caucasian: 31%

Latinos: 21%

Asian/Other: 14%

 

[PlatnumRoyce]

15 minutes ago, John Marston said:

People exaggerating about audiences changing habits because not every movie is a hit. The fact is movies that have no appeal will not do well and has always been t case. Make stuff people want to see and they will come. It’s even happened this year with many no. Blockbusters (Elvis, Crawdads, Smile, Ticket to Paradise)

Yeah, but Elvis' extended box office run still only placed it, in terms of tickets sold, at about 70% of Walk the Line & Compton and around the film Ray. Still a very solid hit but it's numbers have been oversold somewhat. 

[Poseidon]

21 minutes ago, John Marston said:

People exaggerating about audiences changing habits because not every movie is a hit. The fact is movies that have no appeal will not do well and has always been t case. Make stuff people want to see and they will come. It’s even happened this year with many no. Blockbusters (Elvis, Crawdads, Smile, Ticket to Paradise)

 

The problem is, there used to be 2 Elvis', 2 Crawdas, 2 Smile, 2 Tickets or even more a year.

 

The problem is, that people got very picky in what they chose to watch at the movies and that's the problem here. 

[Hades]

8 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

With no China/Russia it's likely. There's a good shot that the next $1B MCU film won't happen until Deadpool 3. 

Ryan Renolds marketing masterclass will be needed.Im sure he will deliver again...Disney should thank FOX

[dudalb]

On 11/12/2022 at 9:36 AM, Factcheck said:

BA's problem is $200M budget, with $200M budget it will need $500M to break even.

This. This whole idea of dicussing a film's level of sucess without taking it's budget into consideration is just silly.

It they had kept BA's budget down to SHazam levels ..100 Million...Warners would be looking at, if not a huge hit, a film returning a good profit. Now they well be in the red on BA.

[The GOAT]

19 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

With no China/Russia it's likely. There's a good shot that the next $1B MCU film won't happen until Deadpool 3. 

So what you're saying is it's not happening until the next Avengers movie

Edited November 13, 2022 by The GOAT

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

So what you're saying is it's not happening until the next Avengers movie

 

 

Deadpool + Wolverine + other cameos (obviously happening) it's gonna be Deadpool 3. 

[efialtes76]

2 hours ago, Noctis said:

 

Too much of a Sunday drop from Disney so it's an obvious overestimation.

 

Most likely $42m-$43m Sunday.

 

$182m-$183m OW.

We'll see.

In 2016 drops were much bigger than those estimates(BA -25% is ridiculous)

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, LonePirate said:

In the context of today's marketplace, Ticket to Paradise may be considered a hit or a success; but we need to be real here. Five years ago, this film would have had little trouble clearing $150M DOM, maybe even $200M due to its star power and accessible subject matter. However, it's going to need Thanksgiving weekend help to outgross Morbius for crying out loud. That is pathetic and I say that as someone who enjoyed Ticket to Paradise. Adult appeal films, not just rom coms, are really struggling right now.

I don't know, it's still a romcom with a fiftysomething and sixtysomething that's IMO on the low end of fine? That script needed another draft or two.  Anyway, The Lost City did better not just due to the action-adventure element, but Channing Tatum bringing in a different audience than George Clooney.

 

Part of the search for "the next Julia Roberts" was that her generation was perceived as "aging out" of the genre, back in the aughts. Romcoms were always a youngish person's game in their heyday, with a few exceptions.

 

Ticket to Paradise is relying on an older audience (by moviegoing standards) for the most part, maybe younger than Book Club, but not that much. If Universal had wanted broader appeal than that, they needed to get someone more famous than Kaitlyn Dever as the daughter. In the nineties, you could have an unknown with a huge role in Father of the Bride, but the box office was healthier then (and it's much better movie).

 

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[jedijake]

Gonna come right out and say this. BP2 would not have gotten even the RT score it had and not even close to the audience score it has. It would have been more paint-by-the-numbers. The themes of grief would not be explored. Where the first one was a monumental event due to its culture, the second one was a monumental event due to the real life grief and Shuri's character arc.

 

But that's all subjective. I'd rather Chadwick be around of course even if it meant the film made less. We all would.

 

That said, BP2 looks more and more like it will fall in the range of AOU and TLJ's drop from their predecessors (which would be between $463 m and $515 m). That's somewhere between a 2.53 and 2.82 multiplier. Not bad. Those other 2 movies had their own obstacles with WOM after release. BP2 had its obstacles before release. As I said earlier, the latter means better legacy.

Edited November 13, 2022 by jedijake

[Torontofan]

I think considering the sequel does not have even have the main hero as the star BP finishing around 500 million dollars is a good feat. 

[Verrows]

4 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:

 

Title	Estimated weekend	% change	Locations	Location change	Average	Total	Weekend	Distributor
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$180,000,000		4,396		$40,946	$180,000,000	1	Walt Disney
Black Adam	$8,600,000	-53%	3,603	-382	$2,387	$151,123,090	4	Warner Bros.
Ticket to Paradise	$6,100,000	-29%	3,633	-433	$1,679	$56,512,445	4	Universal
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	$3,200,000	-5%	2,486	-519	$1,287	$40,839,609	6	Sony Pictures
Smile	$2,330,000	-42%	2,271	-775	$1,026	$102,776,517	7	Paramount
Prey for the Devil	$2,010,000	-48%	2,164	-816	$929	$16,961,244	3	Lionsgate
The Banshees of Inisherin	$1,700,000	-17%	960	65	$1,771	$5,784,663	4	Searchlight Pictures
One Piece Film: Red	$1,447,807	-84%	2,213	-154	$654	$12,768,073	2	Crunchyroll
Till	$618,254	-67%	1,358	-778	$455	$8,038,426	5	United Artists
Armageddon Time	$352,000	-56%	981	-25	$359	$1,582,570	3	Focus Features
TÁR	$343,000	-53%	359	-731	$955	$4,523,473	6	Focus Features
The Woman King	$260,000	-71%	513	-562	$507	$66,487,527	9	Sony Pictures
Triangle of Sadness	$250,800	-41%	184	-303	$1,363	$3,519,637	6	Neon
The Fabelmans	$161,000		4		$40,250	$161,000	1	Universal
Halloween Ends	$147,000	-90%	503	-2,426	$292	$64,041,010	5	Universal
Aftersun	$139,960	20%	92	47	$1,521	$535,023	4	A24
Minions: The Rise of Gru	$86,000	-34%	211	-231	$408	$369,347,010	20	Universal
Amsterdam	$53,000	-52%	170	-200	$312	$14,907,177	6	20th Century Studios
Barbarian	$53,000	-24%	45	-115	$1,178	$40,811,903	10	20th Century Studios
The Bad Guys	$45,000	-61%	128	-436	$352	$97,223,140	30	Universal
Meet Me in the Bathroom	$28,123	-67%	20	16	$1,406	$222,718	2	Utopia
Holy Spider	$20,023	4%	8	4	$2,503	$66,659	3	Utopia
RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt	$10,478	-4%	1		$10,478	$262,288	34	Sarigama Cinemas
All That Breathes	$4,810		3		$1,603	$31,858	4	Submarine Deluxe
Running The Bases	$3,500	-78%	8	-9	$438	$1,508,464	9	UP2U Films

We still have so far to go to get the box office as a whole back on track. The WF gross aside, that's a pathetic overall weekend for the 2nd weekend of November (a time when the box office is historically heating up for the holidays). 8 films over $1M. Only 16 over $100K. Why? An empty schedule. 

 

On the positive side, next year looks like a much healthier schedule. Hopefully studios look at something like Ticket to Paradise and realize that people will still show up to non franchise fare. Just make good, interesting, entertaining movies and give people a chance to reward you for it 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Verrows