THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[jedijake]

2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

Too much of a Sunday drop from Disney so it's an obvious overestimation.

 

Most likely $42m-$43m Sunday.

 

$182m-$183m OW.

Saturday can also go up as well.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

If it makes 15m total, I'd be pleasantly surprised. You know my thoughts. Streaming has killed the Oscar film.

We'll see. It appears that Universal is playing the long game with it since it's going to be expanding to only 600 theaters on Thanksgiving weekend. I think studios are being cautious as a result of things like Bros playing to mostly empty auditoriums across the country now because the last thing they want is "Spielberg's Latest Bombs Hard" headlines for movies that aren't quite strong enough to launch fully wide out the gate and can build WOM.

[narniadis]

I truly think, echoing @filmlover that the board as a whole doesn't understand how much the specialty landscape changed with the theater closures in  LA. Fablemans is fine for how it can be released now, but this would have been vastly different pre-covid with the Specialty Theaters there still open. 

Yes, there have been a couple higher PTAs this year, but again, not on the same level of competition for space and its always the case each year that some don't get as high as they could. 

Let alone the post covid specialty audience issues that are all well known. 

 

This has definitely been an interesting weekend for examining expectations and realities. 

[filmlover]

I think The Whale can hit a $60K+ PTA. It's likely going to get the biggest auditoriums at its theaters when it opens December 9 since it'll be a dead weekend as the calm before Avatar's storm.

[M37]

51 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Not really - they weren't the majority for the 1st Black Panther so being low for the 2nd would be a given, they've been the demo that went strongest into streaming, and they are the demo still the least likely to come back to cinema.

 

Keep in mind BP caught a very large second wind, morphing from an MCU film with a Black lead to something more socially significant (see also Get Out)

 

I don’t know if those numbers are out there, but I wouldn’t be surprised if those demo numbers shifted a fair amount for weekends 2 & 3, and would be more reflective of the expected baseline for the new release 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

11 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

We keep saying this and then these films keep failing. There's simply not evidence that adult audiences in LA and NYC couldn't find these films if the market still existed.

It's a bit of a chicken-or-egg scenario: do the prestige releases make less because the specialty chains are gone/reduced, or have those chains remained closed because their core audience (more mature, white) has largely abandoned theatrical moviegoing? Did the $100,000-200,000 per theater average headlines fuel hype and draw more people to theaters in the following weeks? Maybe a $40-50K post-pandemic "record" PTA just doesn't move the needle the same way. And even before, some movies with huge limited openings just fizzled out in wider release.

.

 

Parasite opened on Joker's second weekend: a 131K per theater average from 3 theaters, 2 in Los Angeles. Here is where it played:

 

Quote

The IFC Center in New York has been a sellout across the board on multiple screens. The Arclight Hollywood with greater seating has at times shown the movie on six screens, while The Landmark also in Los Angeles also has sold out multiple shows on its three screens.

 

Up to 6 auditoriums per day from one theater alone, including the biggest one (800-seat Cineramadome), so 4-5 shows per day, all weekend: 80-90 showtimes, possibly, plus a whole other LA theater as well, so possibly 120-130 showtimes total, from 2 theaters (even more if there were Thursday previews). It's not the Arclight never showed blockbusters, but they weren't necessarily the priority for them. For those theaters, the platform releases were the blockbusters.

 

Now, the Arclight and Landmark are closed. In LA, The Fabelmans is showing at a couple of AMCs in the area. For Sunday, Fandango shows 10 showtimes for one theater and 8 for the other. Over a weekend, that's 54 showtimes, maybe 60 or 70 because of Thursday previews, and they squeezed in more shows Friday/Saturday. But AMC is a major chain and there's Wakanda Forever, so Fabelmans didn't get the biggest rooms, and definitely not any 800-seat auditoriums. Some prestige movies work around this in different ways: avoiding CBMs so they get more space in limited release, or eschewing the major multiplexes. But it's a vastly worse landscape for platform releases post-2020, even compared to blockbusters.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[Cmasterclay]

The drop for Panther and the Fablemans struggle is actually linked. Based on the data Charlie posted about demographics, virtually the entirety of Wakanda Forever's drop from BP 2018 was due to the loss of white liberal audiences - who also happen to be the same audience for movies like the Fablemans and most other adult dramas! It is time to start considering that this specific audience has fundamentally changed how they watch movies, in the same way we think about how voting patterns have changed or something like that. 

[CloneWars]

WF opening is good, I think. 10% drop from a cultural event film is no surprise, especially when the lead is gone. I think this will have solid WOM and will hit $450-$500 which is solid. Only the Avengers movies, NWH and the first BP managed to hit those numbers, so it's still solid no matter how you look at it

[Eric is Quiet]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The drop for Panther and the Fablemans struggle is actually linked. Based on the data Charlie posted about demographics, virtually the entirety of Wakanda Forever's drop from BP 2018 was due to the loss of white liberal audiences - who also happen to be the same audience for movies like the Fablemans and most other adult dramas! It is time to start considering that this specific audience has fundamentally changed how they watch movies, in the same way we think about how voting patterns have changed or something like that. 

Pretty sure there's stats out there that the majority of streaming service demos for Netflix and Disney+ is largely white and middle/upper-class. Don't know what audience demos for theaters look like over the years (might check that out later), but you might be onto something.

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, Eric Killmonger said:

Pretty sure there's stats out there that the majority of streaming service demos for Netflix and Disney+ is largely white and middle/upper-class. Don't know what audience demos for theaters look like over the years (might check that out later), but you might be onto something.

 

Fuckin' yt pipo! 

[Cmasterclay]

17 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

Pretty sure there's stats out there that the majority of streaming service demos for Netflix and Disney+ is largely white and middle/upper-class. Don't know what audience demos for theaters look like over the years (might check that out later), but you might be onto something.

I remember during No Time To Die meltdown it was proven pretty definitively by the data that black/Latin audiences had come back much more than white. Of course data could have changed in a year but anecdotally just from my circles and area this still tracks.

 

It's not all white people though, as everything from Top Gun to Trouble in Paradise proves. It is specifically college-educated, comfortably middle-class professionals who drive a certain type of Oscar-caliber movie.

Edited November 13, 2022 by Cmasterclay

[GOGODanca]

 

$14.17 ATP

[Factcheck]

31 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The drop for Panther and the Fablemans struggle is actually linked. Based on the data Charlie posted about demographics, virtually the entirety of Wakanda Forever's drop from BP 2018 was due to the loss of white liberal audiences - who also happen to be the same audience for movies like the Fablemans and most other adult dramas! It is time to start considering that this specific audience has fundamentally changed how they watch movies, in the same way we think about how voting patterns have changed or something like that. 

NWH- Caucasian 32%

Doctor Strange- 35%

Thor L&T 39%

WF 20%

[Macleod]

2 hours ago, Factcheck said:

3. When T'Challa died the character BP became less important character for many because they knew Shuri won't be in big 3 or even big 5 of this saga.
Despite all these WF made 180M OW

so I would say its really impressive.

 

Says who?  Let's wait and see...and I'd say based on these weekend numbers, as you say, they're quite impressive enough to keep whoever is the next Black Panther on Marvel's radar for high-profile placement in the next couple of Avengers/group films.  

[Factcheck]

Just now, Macleod said:

 

Says who?  Let's wait and see...and I'd say based on these weekend numbers, as you say, they're quite impressive enough to keep whoever is the next Black Panther on Marvel's radar for high-profile placement in the next couple of Avengers/group films.  

I hope so

[Cruel Summer]

whats with Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile's legs???

[Joyous Legion]

Got anything on terrifier this wknd @charlie Jatinder?

[Valonqar]

22 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I remember during No Time To Die meltdown it was proven pretty definitively by the data that black/Latin audiences had come back much more than white. Of course data could have changed in a year but anecdotally just from my circles and area this still tracks.

 

It's not all white people though, as everything from Top Gun to Trouble in Paradise proves. It is specifically college-educated, comfortably middle-class professionals who drive a certain type of Oscar-caliber movie.

 

My guess would be that they now drive Emmy-calibre streaming shows so streaming is replacing movie-going experience for them

 

50 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The drop for Panther and the Fablemans struggle is actually linked. Based on the data Charlie posted about demographics, virtually the entirety of Wakanda Forever's drop from BP 2018 was due to the loss of white liberal audiences - who also happen to be the same audience for movies like the Fablemans and most other adult dramas! It is time to start considering that this specific audience has fundamentally changed how they watch movies, in the same way we think about how voting patterns have changed or something like that. 

 and most likely that's how they catch big releases now. Comfortably middle class professionals have home theaters (large screen TV) so they don't have to experience the hassle of going to the actual cinema. 

[narniadis]

12 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

whats with Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile's legs???

No family films in wide play other than it. By default its a main family option if the kids are too small for the Supers. I took mine last month since it was the only option for a Birthday movie outing 🤷‍♂️ not my choice but its all we had lol. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

54 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The drop for Panther and the Fablemans struggle is actually linked. Based on the data Charlie posted about demographics, virtually the entirety of Wakanda Forever's drop from BP 2018 was due to the loss of white liberal audiences - who also happen to be the same audience for movies like the Fablemans and most other adult dramas! It is time to start considering that this specific audience has fundamentally changed how they watch movies, in the same way we think about how voting patterns have changed or something like that. 

And this has probably gone underreported due to who's doing the reporting about box office, for the most part... Like, when the stats showed women were more cautious to return to theaters compared to men, plenty of articles about that. The demographic info gets stated but not a lot of analysis from Deadline, Variety, etc about it.

 

Not quite willing to doom The Fabelmans to failure just yet (it won TIFF in a fairly normal year), but do wonder how interested audiences are in these "director explores their youth" stories. Maybe it's the nosy soap opera fan in me, but I'm way more drawn to "director explores his messy love life" narratives.