Weekdays Thread (11/14-17)

[John Marston]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

11

[Legion Again]

Sat, sun, and now Mon like 3-6% above rag adjusted. Reception seems similar too, don't expect much deviation until rag's vet bump

[Legion Again]

Precisely expected mon if not slightly good. If it makes total that someone expected look harder than it did 12 hours ago, you were probably overestimating total or are underestimating postD4/D4

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Hey, just as a reminder: when early Monday numbers come in, you can make a weekday thread. You don't have to wait for a mod to take care of the job. It's very annoying to make a new thread from existing posts like this.

[CJohn]

11.5M seems like a sharp drop.

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

11.5M seems like a sharp drop.

11M according to Charlie.

[stripe]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

11.5M seems like a sharp drop.

 

It isn't. Just expected. Between 72-73% drop. Slightly better than Thor Ragnarok

 

[jedijake]

I would have expected a bit better hold (maybe a 65% drop). Interesting to see how this week and the weekend holds up.

[Factcheck]

So the ATP of WF is $12.5, or is it $13.7? If it is $13.7 as reported by EntTelligence, then ticket prices have increased hugely by 30–34% since Ragnarok/BP1 ($10.2–10.5).

[M37]

One thing I’ve noticed is that BPWF seems to be consistently coming in below early evening daily estimates. It’s not getting quite as strong a late/West Coast kick as other MCU releases (likely because the demo skew is more E coast heavy)

[Legion Again]

42 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

So the ATP of WF is $12.5, or is it $13.7? If it is $13.7 as reported by EntTelligence, then ticket prices have increased hugely by 30–34% since Ragnarok/BP1 ($10.2–10.5).

Entelligence is basically nonsense. They would likely have a figure of about 11.1 for rag 

[jedijake]

It looks like we will be able to use DS1 and ThRag for good day to day comps for BP2. Their first weeks can be used to see what BP2's first week will be. Then their Thanksgiving weeks and weekends can be used to predict BP2's TG week and weekend.

[Tokugennumataka]

300 by Sun would be nice. Hoping for 385-390 by the Sunday after. 

11                21.1                8.2            21.8

11.5             33.7               10.2          21.0

8.7               20.9 (296)     12.2         11.1(391) 

8.1 (220)                            10.4 (337) 

 

[Macleod]

I don't know about you dudes and dudettes but I'm looking ahead to this coming weekend (as I wont' have time to see WF myself until at least this weekend) and I'm already seeing *plenty* half and 3/4 full evening screenings booked up at a few of my local multiplexes.  The weeknights are even filling up.  I see this having some staying power...  

[PlatnumRoyce]

Following up on a conversation with @M37 I went poking around in general to compare OW demographic results and the best "final" results I know of - MPA's year end theme reports inclusion of final posttrak data for films in the top 5 of the year. Mildly tangential but I thought it was worth sharing even if I don't have firm conclusions from it. 

 

Quote

Keep in mind BP caught a very large second wind, morphing from an MCU film with a Black lead to something more socially significant (see also Get Out)

 

I don’t know if those numbers are out there, but I wouldn’t be surprised if those demo numbers shifted a fair amount for weekends 2 & 3, and would be more reflective of the expected baseline for the new release 

 

 

Film with demo data in MPA Theme Report OW % - Final %	Male	Female	White	Latino	Black	Asian	Other	Asian + Other	Time_in_OW_Recorded
Spider-Man: No Way Home	4 (from 63 to 59)	-4 (from 37 to 41)	-7 (from 32 to 39)	2 (from 30 to 28)	1 (from 17 to 16)	5 (from 14 to 9)	1 (from 7 to 6)	6 (from 21 to 15)	Saturday am
Shang-Chi	5 (from 62 to 57)	-5 (from 38 to 43)	-6 (from 36 to 42)	2 (from 22 to 20)	3 (from 18 to 15)	-1 (from 18 to 19)	1 (from 6 to 5)	0 (from 24 to 24)	Sunday am
Venom: Let There Be Carnage	7 (from 67 to 60)	-7 (from 33 to 40)	-3 (from 40 to 43)	-2 (from 29 to 31)	1 (from 16 to 15)	NA (from NA to 7)	NA (from NA to 4)	4 (from 15 to 11)	Saturday am
Black Widow	3 (from 58 to 55)	-3 (from 42 to 45)	-6 (from 46 to 52)	-5 (from 21 to 26)	3 (from 16 to 13)	NA (from NA to 6)	NA (from NA to 3)	9 (from 18 to 9)	Saturday am
F9	-10 (from 57 to 67)	2 (from 43 to 41)	-2 (from 35 to 37)	0 (from 37 to 37)	-1 (from 16 to 17)	1 (from 8 to 7)	1 (from 4 to 3)	2 (from 12 to 10)	Sunday AM
Black Panther	0 (from 56 to 56)	0 (from 44 to 44)	-1 (from 35 to 36)	0 (from 18 to 18)	2 (from 37 to 35)	-1 (from 5 to 6)	0 (from 5 to 5)	-1 (from 10 to 11)	Sunday AM
Avengers: Infinity War	6 (from 66 to 60)	-6 (from 34 to 40)	NA (from NA to 48)	NA (from NA to 21)	NA (from NA to 17)	NA (from NA to 10)	NA (from NA to 5)	NA (from NA to 15)	Saturday AM
Incredibles 2	-1 (from 49 to 50)	1 (from 51 to 50)	NA (from NA to 46)	NA (from NA to 23)	NA (from NA to 17)	NA (from NA to 8)	NA (from NA to 6)	NA (from NA to 14)	Sunday AM
Bad Boys for Life	1 (from 56 to 55)	-1 (from 44 to 45)	-2 (from 30 to 32)	-6 (from 18 to 24)	9 (from 42 to 33)	NA (from NA to 5)	NA (from NA to 5)	0 (from 10 to 10)	Monday
1917	5 (from 64 to 59)	-5 (from 36 to 41)	NA (from NA to 66)	NA (from NA to 16)	NA (from NA to 9)	NA (from NA to 7)	NA (from NA to 3)	NA (from NA to 10)	Friday AM
Birds of Prey	2 (from 53 to 51)	-2 (from 47 to 49)	0 (from 44 to 44)	0 (from 23 to 23)	-3 (from 16 to 19)	NA (from NA to 11)	NA (from NA to 3)	3 (from 17 to 14)	Sunday am
Avengers: Endgame	5 (from 63 to 58)	-5 (from 37 to 42)	0 (from 44 to 44)	-3 (from 21 to 24)	-2 (from 15 to 17)	NA (from NA to 10)	NA (from NA to 5)	5 (from 20 to 15)	Friday night
The Lion King	-5 (from 42 to 47)	5 (from 58 to 53)	-3 (from 42 to 45)	1 (from 23 to 22)	1 (from 22 to 21)	NA (from NA to 8)	NA (from NA to 6)	-1 (from 13 to 14)	Saturday am
Captain Marvel	-2 (from 55 [sat  was 61% male] to 57)	1 (from 45 to 44)	-3 (from 47 to 50)	1 (from 21 to 20)	1 (from 16 to 15)	1 (from 12 to 11)	0 (from 4 to 4)	1 (from 16 to 15)	"Saturday AM (racial, age), Sunday AM (Gender)
Average Error/change	1.428571429	-2.071428571	-3	-0.909090909	1.363636364	1	0.6	2.545454545

[GOGODanca]

Not sure Ragnarok is a good comp from the 3rd thursday onwards since it had competition while WF is not getting touched until December 15

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

One thing I’ve noticed is that BPWF seems to be consistently coming in below early evening daily estimates. It’s not getting quite as strong a late/West Coast kick as other MCU releases (likely because the demo skew is more E coast heavy)

we had early evening daily estimates?

[M37]

Maybe more later evening East Cosst time, but in the weekend thread by Rth, yours for Sunday and even EC’s number up top. Not a significant discrepancy, but a consistent shading under. Just thought it was notable 

[charlie Jatinder]

37 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Following up on a conversation with @M37 I went poking around in general to compare OW demographic results and the best "final" results I know of - MPA's year end theme reports inclusion of final posttrak data for films in the top 5 of the year. Mildly tangential but I thought it was worth sharing even if I don't have firm conclusions from it. 

 

 

 

Film with demo data in MPA Theme Report OW % - Final %	Male	Female	White	Latino	Black	Asian	Other	Asian + Other	Time_in_OW_Recorded
Spider-Man: No Way Home	4 (from 63 to 59)	-4 (from 37 to 41)	-7 (from 32 to 39)	2 (from 30 to 28)	1 (from 17 to 16)	5 (from 14 to 9)	1 (from 7 to 6)	6 (from 21 to 15)	Saturday am
Shang-Chi	5 (from 62 to 57)	-5 (from 38 to 43)	-6 (from 36 to 42)	2 (from 22 to 20)	3 (from 18 to 15)	-1 (from 18 to 19)	1 (from 6 to 5)	0 (from 24 to 24)	Sunday am
Venom: Let There Be Carnage	7 (from 67 to 60)	-7 (from 33 to 40)	-3 (from 40 to 43)	-2 (from 29 to 31)	1 (from 16 to 15)	NA (from NA to 7)	NA (from NA to 4)	4 (from 15 to 11)	Saturday am
Black Widow	3 (from 58 to 55)	-3 (from 42 to 45)	-6 (from 46 to 52)	-5 (from 21 to 26)	3 (from 16 to 13)	NA (from NA to 6)	NA (from NA to 3)	9 (from 18 to 9)	Saturday am
F9	-10 (from 57 to 67)	2 (from 43 to 41)	-2 (from 35 to 37)	0 (from 37 to 37)	-1 (from 16 to 17)	1 (from 8 to 7)	1 (from 4 to 3)	2 (from 12 to 10)	Sunday AM
Black Panther	0 (from 56 to 56)	0 (from 44 to 44)	-1 (from 35 to 36)	0 (from 18 to 18)	2 (from 37 to 35)	-1 (from 5 to 6)	0 (from 5 to 5)	-1 (from 10 to 11)	Sunday AM
Avengers: Infinity War	6 (from 66 to 60)	-6 (from 34 to 40)	NA (from NA to 48)	NA (from NA to 21)	NA (from NA to 17)	NA (from NA to 10)	NA (from NA to 5)	NA (from NA to 15)	Saturday AM
Incredibles 2	-1 (from 49 to 50)	1 (from 51 to 50)	NA (from NA to 46)	NA (from NA to 23)	NA (from NA to 17)	NA (from NA to 😎	NA (from NA to 6)	NA (from NA to 14)	Sunday AM
Bad Boys for Life	1 (from 56 to 55)	-1 (from 44 to 45)	-2 (from 30 to 32)	-6 (from 18 to 24)	9 (from 42 to 33)	NA (from NA to 5)	NA (from NA to 5)	0 (from 10 to 10)	Monday
1917	5 (from 64 to 59)	-5 (from 36 to 41)	NA (from NA to 66)	NA (from NA to 16)	NA (from NA to 9)	NA (from NA to 7)	NA (from NA to 3)	NA (from NA to 10)	Friday AM
Birds of Prey	2 (from 53 to 51)	-2 (from 47 to 49)	0 (from 44 to 44)	0 (from 23 to 23)	-3 (from 16 to 19)	NA (from NA to 11)	NA (from NA to 3)	3 (from 17 to 14)	Sunday am
Avengers: Endgame	5 (from 63 to 58)	-5 (from 37 to 42)	0 (from 44 to 44)	-3 (from 21 to 24)	-2 (from 15 to 17)	NA (from NA to 10)	NA (from NA to 5)	5 (from 20 to 15)	Friday night
The Lion King	-5 (from 42 to 47)	5 (from 58 to 53)	-3 (from 42 to 45)	1 (from 23 to 22)	1 (from 22 to 21)	NA (from NA to 😎	NA (from NA to 6)	-1 (from 13 to 14)	Saturday am
Captain Marvel	-2 (from 55 [sat  was 61% male] to 57)	1 (from 45 to 44)	-3 (from 47 to 50)	1 (from 21 to 20)	1 (from 16 to 15)	1 (from 12 to 11)	0 (from 4 to 4)	1 (from 16 to 15)	"Saturday AM (racial, age), Sunday AM (Gender)
Average Error/change	1.428571429	-2.071428571	-3	-0.909090909	1.363636364	1	0.6	2.545454545

So checking 2021 THEME report, it has two ethnicity datas.

 

One has caucasian survey average 45%

 

while other is 57% from other agency

 

The diff is huge. Not sure which is right, I guess 2nd one looks better.