Nikostar Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 46 minutes ago, narniadis said: The old guy watching all the younger followers panicking.... you will learn in time, just relax. BP is doing fine for the time of year. Nothing out of the ordinary so far, and certainly not bad. Also, for the one asking about Deadlines number being real or fake, its not an either or. Charlie noted earlier that Comscore apparently had an issue with their data which skewed the overnight. Charlie's was correct for the data given, Deadlines was correct for the data correctly given. Deadline doesnt make up numbers in the morning of. Early Thursday and Friday stuff, sure to a point. They will learn but it’s still fun to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOGODanca Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Ticket to Paradise: $704,975 (+62% YD/-45% LW) a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastwood47 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Box Office Pro already predicting a 65% drop for WF this coming weekend. That seems a bit... early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Eastwood47 said: Box Office Pro already predicting a 65% drop for WF this coming weekend. That seems a bit... early. Its Wednesday, so their initial weekend projection comes out. -65% is a solid mark to put out now without seeing the Wednesday/Thursday numbers. A tad high imo, but its definitely within normal range coming off an inflated holiday weekend and previews. 70m is my goal / hope personally but as long as it doesnt get near the 70% mark it is fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOGODanca Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Variety saying 72-80M second weekend for WF Box office pro saying 63-73 and landing on 67 as mentioned above 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 BOP range is pretty wisely chosen imo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Legion By Night said: BOP range is pretty wisely chosen imo Yup, the 75+ crowd is setting up for disappointment. Nothing new in that regard of course. As noted above I am hoping for 70m but BOPs range is quite solid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, narniadis said: Yup, the 75+ crowd is setting up for disappointment. Nothing new in that regard of course. As noted above I am hoping for 70m but BOPs range is quite solid. Well, the sentiment was that November weekdays are weak and the weekends are strong. Couple that with strong WoM for the film and yeah, people are anticipating a good 2nd weekend hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeQ Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I think a $75 million second weekend is quite reasonable (58.6% drop). I don't foresee a 60+% drop for a film that is well-received by critics and audiences alike - which is what would be required for a 63-73M range. But admittedly, my best prognostication days are behind me. Peace, Mike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, Verrows said: Well, the sentiment was that November weekdays are weak and the weekends are strong. Couple that with strong WoM for the film and yeah, people are anticipating a good 2nd weekend hold. 70 *is* strong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I won't say $75M is a pipe dream because it's certainly possible but I would train my expectations closer to $65M. It's likely to be higher than that, so you won't be disappointed when it doesn't hit a lofty target. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 This Friday isn't a holiday so the week to week drop will be harsh. Personally expecting a 63-67M 2nd weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric the IF Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Expect the worst always and you'll never be disappointed. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Always look for 2nd SAT drop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 hours ago, Legion By Night said: BOP range is pretty wisely chosen imo 2m higher would have been nicer target, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) my not very serious inflation calculation points to BP1's adjusted ow being at or very close to 250 million, does that sound about right? seems pretty wild that WF might have lost 60-70 million worth of tickets sales from the first one Edited November 17, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 hours ago, Legion By Night said: 70 *is* strong. I get that. I guess I just took it to literally and thought we would see an EXTRA strong weekend to balance out the softer weekdays. Still getting the hang of this all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopped Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 TTP above BA lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Verrows said: I get that. I guess I just took it to literally and thought we would see an EXTRA strong weekend to balance out the softer weekdays. Still getting the hang of this all. Its all good. The weekends ARE stronger when comparing % of gross versus the weekdays versus the Summer. But the film, as large as it is, has an incredible weight on its back with just the preview gross. Even taking that away and you still have the holiday on Friday to content with week over week (all films will). Saturday across the board will appear stronger this weekend since their isnt an inflated Friday. Extra strong is all in the eye of the beholder as well. A good way to look at it is to exclude the previews since there is no Thursday gross included now. Without them, a 50% drop gets you down to 76m already. A fairly decent -55% then gets you to 69m. Decent word of mouth, lack of true fresh competition, etc. Is why I am aiming for 70m. Which is strong and suggests then that the legs will at least be solid for the current market. CBMs with rare exception (BP1 being a prime candidate) struggle to do less than -55% including previews and that gets harder the larger the number - even before we take into account other factors. Enjoy learning this stuff and have fun with it. I would love a fantastic surprise ala BP1, but just never expect it. Us old timers also can be jaded due to how long we've followed things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
