A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[LinksterAC]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

I know we're in the middle of Oscar Talk, but since I just caught up with the thread, I want to swing back to something that was discussed about an hour ago.

 

 

 

As a not quite charter member of Wait For Boxing Day To Really Say, but a strong subscriber to the newsletter, I understand this comment.

 

I really do.

 

At the same the world is a *LOT* different now than it was in 2009.

 

We've all listed the reasons, but one major thing that isn't quite getting the attention it deserves, IMO, is social media.  WOM, buzz, call it what you will, discussions about things happen so much more quickly than they did in the past.  To put it simply, WOM can (though not always) spread faster than it ever used to.

 

One of the reasons I was somewhat withholding judgement on A2's legs is that I wanted to see if there was any sign whatsoever in legs starting to develop in a higher than expected from pre-sales Saturday number.  Initial signs from the Tracking thread are... Well, let's just say that if WOM is going around this movie it isn't translating in to more purchases now.  

 

Isn't going to write the whole story of this film.  Dec 26th is still on the horizon, after all.  But I was on record (many many times on record as a matter of fact) of wanting to wait 'till I saw some Saturday numbers before I started to commit to things.  And, well...

 

===

 

Now all of this is complicated by what the WOM might be.  If it is getting really positive WOM (as it seems to be) BUT that's being loosely translated to: "See it in PLF or don't bother", then that's gonna put something of a cap on what I'm looking for when it comes to immediate growth.

 

Having a stronger run on PLFs but a weaker run on standard tickets (2D or 3D) is gonna play hell with a lot of patterns.  Stronger than expected weekdays, even when accounting for the calendar, for instance might be in the cards.  But it's also going to play merry hell with patterns from 2009, as while IMAX was growing, all of the other PLF formats were either just launching or not-yet launched.  

 

So "But this started just like this in 2009" doesn't quite say as much to me, simply because the entertainment landscape is more different now than a lot of us like to admit (and I'm not just talking about our fav boogeyman — streaming — here, but lots and lots and lots of other factors).  

 

tl;dr: If too many people aren't paying attention to the lessons of 2009 when it comes to how a film like Avatar plays (plausible), I also think not enough people are paying attention to just how much the world has changed in how it consumes and discusses movies since then.

Good points all around & I think what I point to with 2009’s example is not that it will repeat 2009’s performance, but just that those writing the final story for this movie in this thread are being premature in a way that’s not possible as with the typical blockbuster. 

Things that make it hard to gauge are actually things you pointed to, just viewed from another perspective (which you touch on a bit, admittedly): This movie is unstreamable in a way others aren’t, because of its broad appeal its WOM seems likely to the the old-fashioned kind (not primarily social media), & PLF is just as supply-constrained on this as it was for the first flick (which I think was a factor in its legs).

 

Again, this is not used as an argument to say it will duplicate original, but just one to warn people against extrapolating so much from this weekend.

 

I think I’d wait for after Boxing Day, even, as the week between Christmas & New Years can really affect the trajectory.

Edited December 17, 2022 by LinksterAC

[Reddroast]

The action in this is surprisingly brutal

[ZeeSoh]

14 minutes ago, Cap said:

 

I am all for getting to 150 pages by posting naked men in water 

C'mon Cap you can do better than this, be adventurous. Give us the Evans Banana split gif from Not Another Teen Movie. 

[cookie]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yeah that's a great fun movie, I always watch it when it's on telly. Plus Emily Blunt is bae 😍

Pity it did not perform as well as it should have BO wise. 

 

What a boring movie that was. Thankfully I have almost completely forgotten the plot.

 

10 minutes ago, Cap said:

 

[M37]

14 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Ex machina was good. Interstellar... Not so much. Almost as bad as the prestige.

Interstellar was for me one of Nolan’s weaker films, but I will not tolerate this Prestige slander 

[Cap]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

C'mon Cap you can do better than this, be adventurous. Give us the Evans Banana split gif from Not Another Teen Movie. 

 

 

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Interstellar was for me one of Nolan’s weaker films, but I will not tolerate this Prestige slander 

 

1. Dark Knight

2. Memento

3. Dunkirk

4. The Prestige

5. Inception

6. Insomnia

7. Batman Begins

8. Interstellar

9. Dark Knight Rises

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10. Tenet

[charlie Jatinder]

104. Nice 

[Ronin46]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

104. Nice 

 

Thats a big bump for Saturday. WOM really spreading.

[Cap]

Since we are talking about space movies, what is I blew your mind and said:

 

SPACE SERIES:

 

 

 

 

[ZeeSoh]

10 minutes ago, Cap said:

 

 

[CanadianNaturist]

50 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Gravity in IMAX 3d was an incredible experience. But when I watched it at home I was bored. 

 

 

Yess! And we did not even need Kal (Sheldon) or IronJimbo or any mega Avatar fans to do it. Though we did get an assist from MCU version of KaL

 

 

No Way Home had more than 100 pages, although Thor L&T came awfully close at 98

Gravity was one of the most simplistic stories that I only needed to watch once. It was worth it in theatres but I couldn’t imagine even bothering to watch it at home

[wildphantom]

Charlie’s way of telling us 104 is on the cards by end of play Saturday. 

 

[aabattery]

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, Cap said:

Since we are talking about space movies, what is I blew your mind and said:

 

SPACE SERIES:

 

 

Firefly so deserved a 2nd season!

[CanadianNaturist]

46 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Yeah, thanks Titan AE.

God I love this movie. 

[LinksterAC]

Also, I’ll add that I only come to these forums rarely these days & only for big events like this one, but it’s hilarious to me that one of the “replays” I’m experiencing from 2009 is Iron Jimbo’s reaction. Wasn’t he puffing his chest about the first Avatar, & then absent during it’s opening weekend too?

 

So funny. 

[Inceptionzq]

5 minutes ago, Cap said:

SPACE SERIES:

[Cap]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

Charlie’s way of telling us 104 is on the cards by end of play Saturday. 

 

104 - 53 = 51

 

He is saying 51 for Saturday 

[M37]

23 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Good points all around & I think what I point to with 2009’s example is not that it will repeat 2009’s performance, but just that those writing the final story for this movie in this thread are being premature in a way that’s not possible with the typical blockbuster. 

Things that make it hard to gauge are actually things you pointed to, just viewed from another perspective (which you touch on a bit, admittedly): This movie is unstreamable in a way others aren’t, because of its broad appeal its WOM seems likely to the the old-fashioned kind (not primarily social media), & PLF is just as supply-constrained on this as it was for the first flick (which I think was a factor in its legs).

 

Again, this is not used as an argument to say it will duplicate original, but just one to warn people against extrapolating so much from this weekend.

 

I think I’d wait for after Boxing Day, even, as the week between Christmas & New Years can really affect the trajectory.

Here’s the thing: all of bigger openings that legged out exceptionally well - TGM, BP, WW, even (and esp) Avatar - had one thing in common, in that the film was better or something more than audiences had initially expected 

 

So in later weeks, the audience pool expanded, more people got off the fence or even flipped from out to in, and grosses racked up. OG Avatar set a pretty high standard of quality, in that nothing in the reviews/WOM for Avatwo seems exceptional or way above expectations (could even argue it fell a bit short of where the high bar was set). People basically knew what they were getting, and ~$130M worth chose to go on OW 

 

Do I think it will leg out better than similar openings at this level? Sure, but topping out at like Hobbit levels of legs. Because there’s really no data to suggest some magical run is brewing, other than the name in the title, and from a much different box office - and social - landscape 13 years ago 

Edited December 17, 2022 by M37