Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Reddroast]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

2015 was a great year at the box office. It had amazing movies like The Big Short and Inside Out, medium sized movies that did respectable business as well as huge special blockbusters like The Force Awakens, Age of Ultron, Fast and The Furious 7 and Minions. Hmm not many other good and big blockbusters though apart from the 4 I mentioned

Mad max

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

2015 was a great year at the box office. It had amazing movies like The Big Short and Inside Out, medium sized movies that did respectable business as well as huge special blockbusters like The Force Awakens, Age of Ultron, Fast and The Furious 7 and Minions. Hmm not many other good and big blockbusters though apart from the 4 I mentioned

Ahh a year where we had a sequel out gross it's previous installment in 3 days with Pitch Perfect 2, then everyone forgot it existed with the 3rd 🤣

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What SW movie? There isn't even one in the works.

I'm willing to bet all of those untitled Star Wars movies get wiped from the slate eventually. The Rise of Skywalker damaged the brand so badly that pretty much every movie Lucasfilm's tried to make since ended up dying in development hell. The brand has been reduced to Disney+ fodder, and without any real fan favourite characters to rely on anymore (unless they try to make a Mandalorian movie) it might actually stay that way for good.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm willing to bet all of those untitled Star Wars movies get wiped from the slate eventually. The Rise of Skywalker damaged the brand so badly that pretty much every movie Lucasfilm's tried to make since ended up dying in development hell. The brand has been reduced to Disney+ fodder, and without any real fan favourite characters to rely on anymore (unless they try to make a Mandalorian movie) it might actually stay that way for good.

Nah i still want more SW movies, and i'll happily pay to see them.

Just keep Abrams away from them.

[Cooper Legion]

KOTOR time. Pick that low hanging fruit Iger, you know you wanna 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Just now, Legion in Boots said:

KOTOR time. Pick that low hanging fruit Iger, you know you wanna 

They don't need a movie for that though. Good old Disney+ will be more than enough.

[DAR]

8 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm willing to bet all of those untitled Star Wars movies get wiped from the slate eventually. The Rise of Skywalker damaged the brand so badly that pretty much every movie Lucasfilm's tried to make since ended up dying in development hell. The brand has been reduced to Disney+ fodder, and without any real fan favourite characters to rely on anymore (unless they try to make a Mandalorian movie) it might actually stay that way for good.

Andor

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

They don't need a movie for that though. Good old Disney+ will be more than enough.

Nothing needs a movie. But that is no reason why it shouldn't be made.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 minute ago, DAR said:

Andor

Quality wise it was the best thing to come out of Disney's Star Wars. Barely anyone watched it though. It basically got sent to die against Rings of Power and House of the Dragon.

[Torontofan]

13 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm willing to bet all of those untitled Star Wars movies get wiped from the slate eventually. The Rise of Skywalker damaged the brand so badly that pretty much every movie Lucasfilm's tried to make since ended up dying in development hell. The brand has been reduced to Disney+ fodder, and without any real fan favourite characters to rely on anymore (unless they try to make a Mandalorian movie) it might actually stay that way for good.

I would say another film damage the brand to the fanbase but had its fans.

 

Rise of Skywalker was just a film that pleased no one.

[StreamBO]

2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Quality wise it was the best thing to come out of Disney's Star Wars. Barely anyone watched it though. It basically got sent to die against Rings of Power and House of the Dragon.

Yeah as of now is the best thing quality wise along with The Last Jedi, im just on episode 7 of Andor though will keep watching, but is great so far. 

[filmnerdjamie]

2 hours ago, Factcheck said:

As per the rumour from a reputable site, Spider-Man 4 might get a December 2024 release date; if this happens, then Avatar 3 would be shifted to 2026, as I don't think Disney would again delay Star Wars movie.

 

Disney only gets, what, 25% of that cut?

 

No need to push Avatar 3 back in that case since Christmas 2025 will supposedly be the next Star Wars (the one Damon Lindelof is writing/producing). I'll believe it when I see it.

 

What I think we'll definitely get that Christmas? The DCU Superman reboot that James Gunn will write/direct.

 

[M37]

32 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The lack of depth in the market has definitely become the most glaring part of the recent box office woes. The 100th biggest movie of 2019 (the year before COVID changed everything) still made over $20M, while the current 100th biggest movie of 2022 has a total of only $3M. Part of that can be attributed to less movies being made overall (and 2023's output looking to be not much higher), but still.

Your comment inspired me to dig into this a bit

 

From 2000-2014, the 50th highest grossing movie of the year (a proxy for the median release given ~50 release weeks), brought in 0.63% market share on average, only dipping below 0.6% twice in that period, the last being 2007

 

But from 2015-2019, that same position never got higher than 0.56% market share, averaging just 0.516% share (19% lower than 2000-14 average).

And in the last two years, albeit not a full schedule, its been 0.383% in 2021 and just 0.281% for this year (and will go down as grosses for rest of the year rack up)

 

So yeah, 2015 really was an inflection point, and while we'll need to see what a real, full slate release year looks like, the bottom has really fallen off for now

[Cooper Legion]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Nothing needs a movie. But that is no reason why it shouldn't be made.

Movie

season

movie

Season

Movie

 

alternating years for KOTOR I

 

same for KOTOR II

[JustLurking]

7 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Disney only gets, what, 25% of that cut?

 

No need to push Avatar 3 back in that case since Christmas 2025 will supposedly be the next Star Wars (the one Damon Lindelof is writing/producing). I'll believe it when I see it.

 

What I think we'll definitely get that Christmas? The DCU Superman reboot that James Gunn will write/direct.

 

I'm pretty skeptical on Spidey4 even doing better than A3 to begin with. Domestically, perhaps since it looks like A2 might underperform here, but unless they can figure out another hook as powerful as the multiverse one, I just don't see how worldwide happens.

Edited December 24, 2022 by JustLurking

[StreamBO]

1 minute ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Disney only gets, what, 25% of that cut?

 

 

Their No way home 25% was bigger than any movie (reported gross) they released that year, (if you exclude Black Widow plus the more or so 125 millions from premiere access).

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I'm pretty skeptical on Spidey4 even doing better than A3 to begin with. Domestically, perhaps since it looks like A2 might underperform here, but unless they can figure out another hook as powerful as the multiverse one, I just don't see how that happens.

Spidey 4 and A3 are both dropping significantly so just depends on which drops more I guess.

[StreamBO]

2015

[Cooper Legion]

SM4 will probably do some 600 DOM and 800 OS-C-R (2:1 weighted blend FFH:NWH adjusted 2024)

 

A3 maybe 440 DOM, 1B OS-C-R, ??? C (-20%, being generous) 
 

Neither would be very happy sharing dates, if Sony puts a marker down on dec 24 my guess is that Disney would move to A3 to 25 but more as a face saving way to take more time on Star Wars production than because they were “scared” of SM4 or whatever.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[Eric Prime]

26 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Ahh a year where we had a sequel out gross it's previous installment in 3 days with Pitch Perfect 2, then everyone forgot it existed with the 3rd 🤣

The “Rebel Wilson movie star” era was a bleak time for the world