Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Menor the Destroyer]

25 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

Whare you tracking?

Let's just say a midsized chain.

[StreamBO]

 

36 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Maybe movie theaters have a chance of survival in the coming decade(s) if Hollywood remains in competition with itself to see who can put out the shittiest uninspired fantasy/scifi shows.

 

 Just ignore Andor, House of The Dragon, Severance and the Peripheral. 

Edited December 25, 2022 by StreamBO

[Ozymandias]

2 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

 

 Just ignore Andor, House of The Dragon, Severance and the Peripheral. 

 

Andor and Hot D are the exceptions.  Better Call Saul is great but its not a nerd fanboy property.  Peripheral is ass, quit 3 episodes in.  Never heard of Severance.

[M37]

13 minutes ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

Suffice it to say that I'm now very interested to see the numbers for today. 

 

Yeah, we now have 1.5 data points (I’m the half, fwiw) that suggest a big Xmas Day is incoming. Wondering if the Avatwo audience being a little different than a typical tentpole might lead to a more holiday friendly (also Sat/Sun) pattern than RO but a more muted Boxing Day increase. Something like $29/$31 or $30/$32, rather than $26/$32 

 

Or it’s the start of a strong second week overall (so we can debate over legs and final DOM range for little while longer)

[stuart360]

16 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Top 10 is 84M, down massively from even 2021. The entire Hollywood system needs to get their heads out of the sand and realize the entire industry is absolutely fucked because people simply aren't going to the movies anymore.

They are as NWH showed, TGM showed, and A2 is currently showing.

I just feel the masses are more picky now. and will only pay for something they think deserves to be seen on the big screen.

 

puss in boots 2 is a good example, literally no reason why this couldnt of launched on Disney Plus. No reason to see it at the cinema unless i suppose you're going with the family over Christmas.

 

Who knows if this will even last though, it could get better over the coming years. We also have to remmeber that money is tight for a lot of people at the moment. It could all be different 3 or 4 years from now.

Edited December 26, 2022 by stuart360

[cooldude97]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Top 10 is 84M, down massively from even 2021. The entire Hollywood system needs to get their heads out of the sand and realize the entire industry is absolutely fucked because people simply aren't going to the movies anymore.

maybe the Hollywood system needs to stop leaning on Disney and the occasional surprise hit and actually put more interesting scripts on screen without overblown budgets 

[StreamBO]

Just now, Ozymandias said:

 

Andor and Hot D are the exceptions.  Better Call Saul is great but its not a nerd fanboy property.  Peripheral is ass, quit 3 episodes in.  Never heard of Severance.

[Reddroast]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

They are as NWH showed, TGM showed, and A2 is currently showing.

I just feel the masses are more picky now. and will only pay for something they think deserves to be seen on the big screen.

 

puss in boots 2 is a good example, literally no reason why this couldnt of launched on Disney Plus. No reason to see it at the cinema unless i suppose you're going with the family over Christmas.

 

Who knows if this will even last though, it could get better over the coming years. We also have to remmeber that money is tight for a lot of people at the moment. It could all be different 3 or 4 years from now.

I think a huge part of it is mid budget and " oscar-bait"  films are marketed horrendously.

[StreamBO]

1 minute ago, Reddroast said:

I think a huge part of it is mid budget and " oscar-bait"  films are marketed horrendously.

Black Adam was well marketed and...

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, we now have 1.5 data points (I’m the half, fwiw) that suggest a big Xmas Day is incoming. Wondering if the Avatwo audience being a little different than a typical tentpole might lead to a more holiday friendly (also Sat/Sun) pattern than RO but a more muted Boxing Day increase. Something like $29/$31 or $30/$32, rather than $26/$32 

 

Or it’s the start of a strong second week overall (so we can debate over legs and final DOM range for little while longer)

 

I also suspect today will be about 10-15% bigger than R1 Sunday but tomorrow will be basically flat with R1 Monday.

 

But if I'm wrong and tomorrow also jumps 20-25% over Sunday like R1 did then....

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't want to overhype things but it's looking very good so far where I'm tracking. Would guess this is the first day where it really blows past RO.

 

I'd say "I'm surprised", except I've been banging the "Wait for Xmas to truly judge" drum for so long that I got a new pair of batons as a prezzie today to replace my worn out set. 

 

(the real tell is the Boxing Day jump [and by extension the Dec 27th drop] as alluded to by @M37, but one thing at a time )

[Reddroast]

7 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

Black Adam was well marketed and...

No it wasn't 

[stuart360]

7 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

Black Adam was well marketed and...

I think thats a little harsh. Black Adam is going to finish in the 400-450mil range WW, and we have had loads of these lesser known superhero films gross those kind of grosses, before the pandemic, even much lower too.

I very much doubt anyone, including WB, was expecting Black Adam to be some 800+mil grossing film.

[interiorgatordecorator]

STOP GIVING ME HOPE

[efialtes76]

Those Sunday estimates for Avatar and PiB are a joke.

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Those Sunday estimates for Avatar and PiB are a joke.

 

 

is 70% ahead of saturday really a joke?

could be a bit bigger, but I doubt they'll miss by that much

 

edit: never mind, I just saw that others movies were running 100-150%  ahead, so I guess it could be a very bad guess

Edited December 26, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[AJG]

6 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I think thats a little harsh. Black Adam is going to finish in the 400-450mil range WW, and we have had loads of these lesser known superhero films gross those kind of grosses, before the pandemic, even much lower too.

I very much doubt anyone, including WB, was expecting Black Adam to be some 800+mil grossing film.

I think Black Adam tapped out at $390m.

 

It’s a Ghostbusters 2016 situation all over again. It performed perfectly fine. It was the insane budget that tanked it.

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Those Sunday estimates for Avatar and PiB are a joke.

 

 

 

Just now, interiorgatordecorator said:

is 70% ahead of saturday really a joke?

could be a bit bigger, but I doubt they'll miss by that much

 

The Avatar estimate is a joke, yea. It's off by at least $6M and potentially quite a bit more.

PiB may be off by a bit but they estimated +70% Sunday vs ATWOW +43% and +70% is a fairly normal Christmas increase over Christmas Eve. Might go up by another $500-750K. 

[Brainbug]

I know everyone here is excited about the upcoming holiday numbers for Avatar, but im even more curious about its numbers post New Years weekend. Rogue One pretty much stumbled away at the end but with literally 0 competition besides a cute little doll, Avatar 2 has a clean slate for itself for quite a long time.

[poweranimals]

IronJimbo and his 12 accounts sure have been quiet lately. 🤔