Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

Just for clarification: are the 29.5M SUN and 31.5M MON actuals or still estimates? 

Estimates. Actuals come in at 3pm EST or 12pm Pacific 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Flamengo81 said:

Just for clarification: are the 29.5M SUN and 31.5M MON actuals or still estimates? 

 

estimated actuals.

 

(ie the "really good estimate" before the last trickle of tickets is officially compiled - due to the holidays we might not get actual actuals for a while)

[Alex SciChannel]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

estimated actuals.

 

(ie the "really good estimate" before the last trickle of tickets is officially compiled - due to the holidays we might not get actual actuals for a while)

Sunday, Sat, and Friday are still estimate estimates. They haven't changed since Sunday

[Nero]

13 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

Just for clarification: are the 29.5M SUN and 31.5M MON actuals or still estimates? 

Revised estimates basically almost actuals

Edited December 27, 2022 by Nero

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Sunday, Sat, and Friday are still estimate estimates. They haven't changed since Sunday

They'd already revised those numbers to more accurate estimates... What we see now is Monday's more precise estimate being reported.

[Alex SciChannel]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

They'd already revised those numbers to more accurate estimates... What we see now is Monday's more precise estimate being reported.

For Sunday yes. Which was my mistake, but Friday and Saturday haven't changed since their first studio reports.

[Alexdube]

21 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Hope you are right.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

For Sunday yes. Which was my mistake, but Friday and Saturday haven't changed since their first studio reports.

Because those numbers came out on Sunday so they’re already close enough to accurate. They don’t need additional revision.

[Alex SciChannel]

11 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Because those numbers came out on Sunday so they’re already close enough to accurate. They don’t need additional revision.

I see. I consider those estimates since they came out the day after the day in question but they aren't precise. The "estimates" that come out for Sunday on Sunday I don't consider true estimates because they come out mid day on the day they're referring to. I treat those as more like studio projections, which they mostly downplay for the investors so once real estimates and actuals come out the next day it looks like an improvement. 

 

In my mind, estimates come after the day of referral 8-9am Pacific and actuals come out the day after the one it's referring at ~12pm Pacific.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[oMeriMombatti]

Here I am 1:00 AM Midnight, reading the news that we had earthquake here, some of the links that were given for references have made me squeal of laughter. So thanks for that I guess 😭

[Alex SciChannel]

Actuals

[stephanos13]

7 hours ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

A4 and A5 will definitely happen at this point. A2 will get to a minimum of #7 worldwide. Right now I assume A3 will drop about 20-25% admits in all markets (excluding China) and the A4 about 5-10% from that with A5 flat from A4.

 

Any way you spin it, the five films are probably doing a minimum of $10B and perhaps upwards of $12-12.5B.

 

I disagree with that logic that every next movie will do less than the previous one.

 

I will use the Harry Potter franchise example as I assume Avatar franchise will go to at least Avatar 5.

 

Harry Potter Worldwide Grosses

Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone: $974,755,371

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets: $878,979,634

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban: $795,634,069

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire: $895,921,036

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $941,676,843

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince: $933,959,197

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1: $976,536,918

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2: $1,341,511,219

 

All movies except the last one are between (+/- 10% from the previous one).

 

HP2 and HP3 decreased from the previous one. HP3 being so good though elevated all the upcoming movies.

 

Avatar 3 it won't decrease from Avatar 2 worldwide because of China (assuming everything will be back to normal in 2024).

If Avatar 3 does what Prisoner of Azkaban did for Harry Potter then why Avatar 4 and 5 can't grow from Avatar 3?

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

 

I disagree with that logic that every next movie will do less than the previous one.

 

I will use the Harry Potter franchise example as I assume Avatar franchise will go to at least Avatar 5.

 

Harry Potter Worldwide Grosses

Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone: $974,755,371

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets: $878,979,634

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban: $795,634,069

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire: $895,921,036

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $941,676,843

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince: $933,959,197

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1: $976,536,918

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2: $1,341,511,219

 

All movies except the last one are between (+/- 10% from the previous one).

 

HP2 and HP3 decreased from the previous one. HP3 being so good though elevated all the upcoming movies.

 

Avatar 3 it won't decrease from Avatar 2 worldwide because of China (assuming everything will be back to normal in 2024).

If Avatar 3 does what Prisoner of Azkaban did for Harry Potter then why Avatar 4 and 5 can't grow from Avatar 3?

Just looking at those grosses again, just wild to see the best film of the lot making the least amount of money. 

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Just looking at those grosses again, just wild to see the best film of the lot making the least amount of money. 

What? The best one is in 4th place 👀

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Just looking at those grosses again, just wild to see the best film of the lot making the least amount of money. 

Prisoner?, i actually thought that was the worst, although i have only seen the first 4 films.

[Alex SciChannel]

Puss in Boots

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Dec 21, 2022	2	$3,200,250		4,093	$782	$3,200,250	1
Dec 22, 2022	2	$2,902,605	-9%	4,093	$709	$6,102,855	2
Dec 23, 2022	2	$3,803,345	+31%	4,099	$928	$9,906,200	3
Dec 24, 2022	2	$2,792,860	-27%	4,099	$681	$12,699,060	4
Dec 25, 2022	2	$5,833,310	+109%	4,099	$1,423	$18,532,370	5
Dec 26, 2022	2	$6,821,005	+17%	4,099	$1,664	$26,153,375	6

[Maggie]

So how much are we predicting A2 this weekend? Should be huge, right?

[Kevin Burke]

6 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

 

I disagree with that logic that every next movie will do less than the previous one.

 

I will use the Harry Potter franchise example as I assume Avatar franchise will go to at least Avatar 5.

 

Harry Potter Worldwide Grosses

Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone: $974,755,371

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets: $878,979,634

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban: $795,634,069

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire: $895,921,036

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $941,676,843

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince: $933,959,197

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1: $976,536,918

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2: $1,341,511,219

 

All movies except the last one are between (+/- 10% from the previous one).

 

HP2 and HP3 decreased from the previous one. HP3 being so good though elevated all the upcoming movies.

 

Avatar 3 it won't decrease from Avatar 2 worldwide because of China (assuming everything will be back to normal in 2024).

If Avatar 3 does what Prisoner of Azkaban did for Harry Potter then why Avatar 4 and 5 can't grow from Avatar 3?

This is an interesting comparison for sure. Although I'm not sure the HP series is the best series to compare it to. 

 

For one thing it was based on existing IP.  For another thing, A2 is already showing diminishing returns as a sequel to A1 - granted, while there are circumstances that affect that - like Avatar being a once in a lifetime event - I still think HP is a hard comparison.

In some ways it's playing closer to the Black Panther series - a massive over-performing breakout first entry followed by a sequel that does well, but drops a lot from the original.

[MovieMan89]

It would be interesting to know Cameron’s own expectations for A2’s gross. I saw in a recent interview him claiming the WW box office was “80% recovered now” so if that’s what he believes and IF he also believed A2 would have hit $3b in a normal market, then we can guesstimate he expected about $2.4b WW for A2 in current circumstances. 

[ZackM]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It would be interesting to know Cameron’s own expectations for A2’s gross. I saw in a recent interview him claiming the WW box office was “80% recovered now” so if that’s what he believes and IF he also believed A2 would have hit $3b in a normal market, then we can guesstimate he expected about $2.4b WW for A2 in current circumstances. 

Why would he think A2 would do $3b?