Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[hw64]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

It's about the same as TG2. And this week A2 will kill during weekdays. I think it has a chance to beat TG2

 

Will need about $300m post-holidays compared to the $420m-ish it makes during the holidays (or 71% of its holiday gross).

 

The Force Awakens: $750m pre-holidays, $182m post (24%)

No Way Home: $621.5m pre-holidays, $183m post (29% - aided significantly by Canada re-opening in January)

Rogue One: $441m pre-holidays, $91m post (21%)

 

Essentially, good luck.

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I mean, will anything ever beat TFA domestic? For awhile I was on the Avengers: Secret Wars train but now I'm really not so sure. Guess it depends on the state of the box office in 2026 and if theatres really do make a comeback, as opposed to stabilizing a bit and gradually falling off from here.

Eh, TFA is a strong record no doubt but it's not an unbeatable record in the US. Unless streaming kills box office entirely it will fall eventually. There are stronger, actually unbeatable single-market performances, but this isn't really one of them.

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Verrows said:

There will never again be anything like it. I'm pretty confident of that.

 

I only use that statement for Titanic. 

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Eh, TFA is a strong record no doubt but it's not an unbeatable record in the US. Unless streaming kills box office entirely it will fall eventually. There are stronger, actually unbeatable single-market performances, but this isn't really one of them.

 

 

Well, this is one of those things I'd love to be wrong about! We'll see if you're right.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Eh, TFA is a strong record no doubt but it's not an unbeatable record in the US. Unless streaming kills box office entirely it will fall eventually. There are stronger, actually unbeatable single-market performances, but this isn't really one of them.

 

 

 

Id agree since both Endgame and No Way Home were not too far off from TFA that one could think the record is unbeatable. It would really need to be a movie that truly catches lightning in a bottle, but since TFA managed exactly that, i dont see a reason why it coudnt happen again.

[MikeQ]

10 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

 

I think if it hits and goes over 2bil, he will be happy

The studio and him better be happy if the film manages to hit $2B, because that is an exceptionally difficult milestone to hit.
 

Only five films have achieved this, and of those, only four did so on their original run.  And of those four, two were culminations of an incredible cinematic universe (saga) spanning 20+ films over a decade, and another was a Star Wars film building on two trilogies before it and pent-up nostalgia.

 

That’s why it’s still wild to me that some folks (and I know it was only really like 2-3 people) were throwing around $4-5 billion worldwide as if it was nothing.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Verrows]

What does everyone think will be the biggest worldwide hit next year?

[cory]

4 & 5 seem like a done deal at this point, the math just doesn’t make sense to not make them when $1.5b per installment is the likely floor. Disney hasn’t even had a $1b movie in the Covid era until Way of Water. 

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, Verrows said:

What does everyone think will be the biggest worldwide hit next year?

 

Likely candidates:

 

GOTG Vol 3

The Little Mermaid
Indy 5
Mission Impossible 7
Aquaman 2

I personally think there wont be a movie next year that wins it by a really huge margin. Of those here (i know, i apologize for the Dune and Meg disrespect), i would say it seems safer to bet on Marvel i. e. GOTG 3, but after this year, im not so sure anymore and if Indiana Jones 5 is of exceptional quality, that movie could be HUGE. Also Mission Impossible 7 has a whole mountain of goodwill behind it, i woundt underestimate it and Little Mermaid - on paper - should also have a shot looking at past movies like Lion King or Aladdin.

 

I think it will be Indy 5, only because i have a feeling that it will be a great movie and if it connects with global audiences, theres massive potential there since it is still one of the most iconic franchises.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Brainbug

[Alex SciChannel]

17 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

That's completely unrealistic in my opinion. Yes the storm really affected things but you're also talking about the film going into its third weekend now. If I had to guess, and keep in mind I haven't been studying the box office anyway near the way I used to over the last 3 years but I would say a good drop to hope for would be in the 15-20% range. It's definitely not going to increase over the New year's weekend

I said it was a hope. Not that it was realistic or likely

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Likeyl candidates:

 

GOTG Vol 3

The Little Mermaid
Indy 5
Mission Impossible 7
Aquaman 2

I personally think there wont be a movie next year that wins it by a really huge margin. Of those here (i know, i apologize for the Dune and Meg disrespect), i would say it seems safer to bet on Marvel i. e. GOTG 3, but after this year, im not so sure anymore and if Indiana Jones 5 is of exceptional quality, that movie could be HUGE. Also Mission Impossible 7 has a whole mountain of goodwill behind it, it woundt underestimate it and Little Mermaid - on paper - should also have a shot looking at past movies like Lion King or Aladdin.

 

I think it will be Indy 5, only because i have a feeling that it will be a great movie and if it connects with global audiences, theres massive potential there since it is still one of the most iconic franchises.

 

I think Mario will be pretty big, 800-900 WW. 

[Flopped]

None of the Marvel or Star Wars movies (the ones after 1983) come close to Titanic. If you want to, you can avoid a Marvel movie, no matter how huge. You could run, you could hide, but you could not avoid Titanic for a good 4-6 months. 

[stuart360]

14 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I mean, will anything ever beat TFA domestic? For awhile I was on the Avengers: Secret Wars train but now I'm really not so sure. Guess it depends on the state of the box office in 2026 and if theatres really do make a comeback, as opposed to stabilizing a bit and gradually falling off from here.

I think if in like 10 years we got another Endgame situation, a finale to a 20 something series of films. I could see that film beating TFA.

Like wise if Episodes 10-12 were greenlit for SW, i could possible see the first one beating TFA.

Thats about it though for the forseeable future.

[SchumacherFTW]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I agree but when it comes to box office, quality is imo secondary compared to accessibility, i. e. how good a movie is at crowdpleasing. Prisoner of Azkaban is way darker and more serious than the first two movies, so the decrease makes sense; Goblet of Fire - while in many ways even darker than Prisoner - is also a fantasy epic full of crowedpleasing moments that was more "exciting" than Prisoner in a sense.

 

At least thats how i see it.

@Shawn did a really great breakdown heading in to DH2's OW back in the day about how to the GA, Philosopher's Stone, Goblet of Fire and Deathly Hallows 2 kind of worked as a weird trilogy for the GA. 

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

I think if in like 10 years we got another Endgame situation, a finale to a 20 something series of films. I could see that film beating TFA.

Like wise if Episodes 10-12 were greenlit for SW, i could possible see the first one beating TFA.

Thats about it though for the forseeable future.

Star Wars will never go that high again, The Last Jedi left major scars in the franchise regardless of the films perceived quality. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, Verrows said:

What does everyone think will be the biggest worldwide hit next year?

The Wandering Earth 2 if it moves to summer.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

TFA DOM will go down in the next 66 months. Bookmark it.

[SchumacherFTW]

Just now, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

TFA DOM will go down in the next 66 months. Bookmark it.

66 months? That's a choice 😅

[JustLurking]

11 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Well, this is one of those things I'd love to be wrong about! We'll see if you're right.

I mean, it has only been 7 years and TFA has already seen 2 films get within 85 (and even 90% for endgame) of its gross, with inflation running rampant as of late. TFA overindexed hard in the US but it isn't a borderline market cap film. DOM will have a 1B film eventually imho.

[Brainbug]

Just now, SchumacherFTW said:

Star Wars will never go that high again, The Last Jedi left major scars in the franchise regardless of the films perceived quality. 

 

I agree TFA was a once-in-a-lifetime chance to make the sequel to Return of the Jedi every Star Wars fan wanted since 1983 and also ofc it was thus the sequel to maybe the most beloved trilogy (in USA) of all time. You just dont get that chance ever again in that sense, regardless of its sequels as well.

 

Man i just hope they make a Knights of the Old Republic trilogy with entirely new characters and make it good. Because personlly, im just over the Skywalker stories/saga, they milked it already to death.