Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[Eric Duncan]

April 7

Chevalier: Woulda been a decent-sized counterprogrammer in 2016 for the olds. But the olds don't go to the movies anymore and only nostalgic toy commercials make any money, so this will barely reach the single digits. Sad! 3/11 (3.67x)

 

The Pope's Exorcist: With a solid name in Russell Crowe and being the first horror movie since Scream 6, I can see this performing to modest numbers. Just kinda hard to judge without a trailer to use as a reference. 16/35 (2.19x)

 

The Super Mario Bros. Movie: Detective Pikachu walked so Mario could run. The Mario series is the cream of the crop for gaming and this looks exactly in line with what fans would want from a film adaptation, Chris Pratt’s voice aside. I’d argue it looks better than anybody expected from the idea of “Minions guys make a Mario movie”. There hasn’t been a single major animated release since Puss in Boots, Illumination and Nintendo are masters of marketing, and this already has tons of discussion online and offline that it’s impossible not to be aware of this film’s existence. This will be the biggest animated movie of the year bar none. 110/355 (3.23x)

[Eric Duncan]

April 14

Renfield: It’s kind of hard to gauge this one without a trailer to know what it's all about and what to expect. I’m assuming it’s a comedy with the Lego Batman guy directing this, which automatically hurts it. But will it also lean into fun horror stuff that could sell it to the horror crowd? Tough call, but I am leaning towards the low side either way. There will be one or two memes about Nic Cage in the trailer, but Unbearable Weight shows that this is basically meaningless. 10/30 (3x)

[Eric Duncan]

April 21

Evil Dead Rise: The 2013 film adjusts to 61M, which...yeah, that sounds good here. Evil Dead's not the biggest horror franchise in the world, but still iconic and recognizable. And while Zaslav still sucks, he seems confident in this film's performance to move it away from HBO Max. So let's just go with this. 30/60 (2x)

[Brainbug]

These 65 predictions make me sad.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

April 21

Evil Dead Rise: The 2013 film adjusts to 61M, which...yeah, that sounds good here. Evil Dead's not the biggest horror franchise in the world, but still iconic and recognizable. And while Zaslav still sucks, he seems confident in this film's performance to move it away from HBO Max. So let's just go with this. 30/60 (2x)

 

Im really rooting for both Scream and Evil Dead to do well. Though i have more confidence in Scream 6 beeing atleast a solid movie, while with Evil Dead ... i dont know, i really like the 2013 remake but i think its hard to make an Evil Dead movie that would really stand on its own compared to the other ones. 

[Eric Duncan]

April 28

Are You There, God? It’s Me Margaret: Like I said with Chevalier, the olds this is aiming itself towards (yes I know this is a YA book) don't show up to these things anymore. But this could go just a bit farther, as it'll be an okay counterprogram choice going into May and should be a solid crowdpleaser picture. Edge of Seventeen numbers, which, funny enough, would now be considered a good thing for a movie like this. 5/15 (3x)

 

George Foreman Biopic: Probably the same as Father Stu, if not a wee bit higher if they put in some fun sports stuff in there. I dunno. Some of these entries I just don't feel like I have much of a reason to go into why a film will gross what they do, especially when there's no trailers or marketing to fall back on. 6/20 (3.33x)

[cookie]

1 hour ago, Eric in Boots said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie: Detective Pikachu walked so Mario could run. The Mario series is the cream of the crop for gaming and this looks exactly in line with what fans would want from a film adaptation, Chris Pratt’s voice aside. I’d argue it looks better than anybody expected from the idea of “Minions guys make a Mario movie”. There hasn’t been a single major animated release since Puss in Boots, Illumination and Nintendo are masters of marketing, and this already has tons of discussion online and offline that it’s impossible not to be aware of this film’s existence. This will be the biggest animated movie of the year bar none. 110/355 (3.23x)

Tie-in marketing with Super Nintendo World opening at Universal Hollywood should also help. Shame Nintendo isn't looking to have a new Mario game out by then, though.

Edited December 28, 2022 by cookie

[Morieris]

1 hour ago, Eric in Boots said:

Chevalier: Woulda been a decent-sized counterprogrammer in 2016 for the olds. But the olds don't go to the movies anymore and only nostalgic toy commercials make any money, so this will barely reach the single digits. Sad! 3/11 (3.67x)

 

Aw, see, now I'm sad bc I'll be the only person under 60 watching this in the theater.

[Pinacolada]

DnD is gonna get gangbanged in that release date by JW4 and Super Mario

[Cmasterclay]

Damn, my big predictions of the year were gonna be Creed III and John Wick having yet another increase and Mario  being the biggest of the year domestically, and you guys went 2.5/3 on those already. I'll have to think of something else crazy. Marvels and Ant-Man both under 250? Is that bold?

 

Dungeons and Dragons seems very much like a massive flop ala King Arthur BUT everyone I know plays Dungeons and Dragons now, even the cool kids, except for me, so I could have a blind spot there and wonder if that's other people's friends.

 

Scream V had very little lasting imprint but I think Ortega has legit draw power so about flat seems right.

 

Box office until Magic Mike is disgusting. Hopefully the headlines alone don't kill theaters.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Cmasterclay

[Eric Duncan]

16 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Marvels and Ant-Man both under 250? Is that bold?

I mean...I don't think it's all that bold (superhero fatigue is real), but I'm sure some Marvel fan will throw a fit over that prediction, so go with that.

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

April 7

Chevalier: Woulda been a decent-sized counterprogrammer in 2016 for the olds. But the olds don't go to the movies anymore and only nostalgic toy commercials make any money, so this will barely reach the single digits. Sad! 3/11 (3.67x)

 

The Pope's Exorcist: With a solid name in Russell Crowe and being the first horror movie since Scream 6, I can see this performing to modest numbers. Just kinda hard to judge without a trailer to use as a reference. 16/35 (2.19x)

 

The Super Mario Bros. Movie: Detective Pikachu walked so Mario could run. The Mario series is the cream of the crop for gaming and this looks exactly in line with what fans would want from a film adaptation, Chris Pratt’s voice aside. I’d argue it looks better than anybody expected from the idea of “Minions guys make a Mario movie”. There hasn’t been a single major animated release since Puss in Boots, Illumination and Nintendo are masters of marketing, and this already has tons of discussion online and offline that it’s impossible not to be aware of this film’s existence. This will be the biggest animated movie of the year bar none. 110/355 (3.23x)

Not that this isn't already a big prediction for Mario, but I hope it can go even bigger! I really think this one could be special for us box office nerds.

[WrathOfHan]

April 7

 

The Super Mario Bros. Movie: The trailer's always a hit with four quad audiences when I get it. The memes are a plenty. Illumination normally does well with franchise launches. There's very little reason to not go big on this one, especially when Sonic 2 made over 70M on a non-holiday weekend and nearly hit 200M. It could even be in the running for highest grossing of the year... 130/455 (3.5x)

 

The Pope's Exorcist: Julius Avery had a fun underrated horror flick with Overlord, but Samaritan came and went with no fanfare and middling reviews. Sony's clearly going for a fun promotional tie-in with the Easter release date, so it's truly up to the film's quality and marketing. However, if 65 sticks where it is, Sony will prioritize that, which could leave this in the dust. TBD, but I'm not expecting big things here. 6/15 (2.5x)

 

Chevalier: Fuck this trailer. It somehow feels like 5 minutes everytime I see it in theaters. Bombs away. 2/4.5 (2.25x)

[Verrows]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

April 7

 

The Super Mario Bros. Movie: The trailer's always a hit with four quad audiences when I get it. The memes are a plenty. Illumination normally does well with franchise launches. There's very little reason to not go big on this one, especially when Sonic 2 made over 70M on a non-holiday weekend and nearly hit 200M. It could even be in the running for highest grossing of the year... 130/455 (3.5x)

 

The Pope's Exorcist: Julius Avery had a fun underrated horror flick with Overlord, but Samaritan came and went with no fanfare and middling reviews. Sony's clearly going for a fun promotional tie-in with the Easter release date, so it's truly up to the film's quality and marketing. However, if 65 sticks where it is, Sony will prioritize that, which could leave this in the dust. TBD, but I'm not expecting big things here. 6/15 (2.5x)

 

Chevalier: Fuck this trailer. It somehow feels like 5 minutes everytime I see it in theaters. Bombs away. 2/4.5 (2.25x)

I'm stanning Pope's Exorcist hard. Gimme a $20M+ OW. I believe!

[WrathOfHan]

April 14

 

Suzume: Makoto Shinkai's box office footprint rose with Weathering with You, which made nearly 10M when it was only wide for two days. This is the first Crunchyroll title to be released since Funimation was absorbed, and they/Sony haven't been slacking with recent anime releases. The only downside to releasing right after Mario will be the lack of PLF space, but that won't be a big issue. 10/22 (2.2x)

 

Renfield: April feels like an odd time to release this. The concept sounds fun, but will anyone actually care once Nic Cage as Dracula gets memed in the first day? Unberable Weight of Massive Talent struggled to latch on with audiences as a Nic Cage meta movie, and Universal (among every other studio) has been struggling with more niche comedy concepts lately, and until proven otherwise, I'll assume the same here. 5/15 (3x)

Edited December 29, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

April 21

 

Evil Dead Rise: Considering WB moved this from HBO Max because of quality, that says a lot on how the new regime feels. I don't know if audiences will gravitate towards a new Evil Dead concept in 2023 without any returning cast members/Bruce Campbell, but if it's a gory fun time, WOM should help carry it into May. 15/40 (2.67x)

 

The Covenant: Will this see the light of day before Operation Fortune in the US? Maybe... On paper, it sounds like Guy Ritchie is going for the *slightly* more serious tone found in Wrath of Man, and maybe a bit more serious than that. Hard to say where it lands without a trailer, but Ritchie hasn't had any issues finding audiences with his last three films given their various scales. 12/42 (3.5x)

 

 

[Reddroast]

On 12/27/2022 at 12:43 PM, Eric in Boots said:

March 3

Creed III: When the first trailer dropped, Quorum “Awareness” and “Interest” data went through the roof, and I can understand why. The trailer’s effective in selling the Jordan vs. Majors hook and Adonis Creed’s managed to become fairly iconic to a lot of people, especially folks my age, a la Rocky. Plus this was filmed in IMAX, which gives it a proper PLF boost that can juice up the numbers. Although the lack of Rocky will hurt the film when it comes to older fans, I’m actually thinking it could end up being the strongest performer despite the handicap, though it does depend on how strong reviews and reception is. But you know what? Let's go controversial. 43/122 (2.84x)

I've heard very good buzz on this. Majors performance specifically

[WrathOfHan]

April 28

 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret: It's fairly surprising we haven't had a major Judy Blume adaptation on screen given she's been a mainstay in YA for over 50 years now. This novel undoubtedly holds nostalgia value for generations of readers, and given the talent involved (Kelly Fremon Craig has been 1/1, folks!), there shouldn't be any quality concerns. Pinpointing a projection for this is hard when the demographics could skew in many directions, but after the success of Where the Crawdads Sing, middle aged women alone could drive this to solid numbers. 15/60 (4x)

 

George Foreman: I mean... it's an April Sony drama. Do these ever do well? We know almost nothing about this movie. 5/15 (3x)

[Reddroast]

On 12/27/2022 at 1:02 PM, Eric in Boots said:

March 31

Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves: D&D is arguably the most popular it has ever been thanks to Critical Role, COVID, and Stranger Things. But Quorum data for this movie is very poor and this is coming in the midst of major competition from John Wick, with Mario also just one week later taking up all the PLFs. Plus like Shazam, the ad campaign is still stuck on the one trailer, which is just odd to me. March is just around the corner, doncha know? Unless this is a huge critical hit, which I kind of doubt, this will get lost in the shuffle big time. 25/67 (2.68x)

You may need to bump up that number for dnd. @Cap might give your character the helm of opposite alignment and force them to put it on. /s

 

[Eric Duncan]

May 5

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: Weird to think it’s been six whole years since the last Guardians sequel. Thankfully, Marvel’s been keeping the characters alive and in the conversation through the Avengers movies, the Disney rides, Thor 4, the Groot shorts, and the Holiday Special. Still, not too oversaturated, where people still kinda miss them. A legit nice happy medium. Quorum metrics are already very strong and the trailer promises a lot of emotional thrills and tearful goodbyes, although legs could be hurt by both Disney+ and the sad vibes expected. But of all the superhero movies this year, this is the one that will actually land with people. Probably on par with what it would have done in a non-COVID, non-Disney+ world if I’m being honest. So good on you James Gunn. Good luck to fixing that messed-up DC ship. 167/423 (2.53x)