Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, CJohn said:

NWH didn't have China either.

Okay. That would've easily been over 2B with China. Likely something like 2.25B with a China release. I think Strange 2 would've been over 1B with a China release as well... Probably something like 1.2B. Panther 2 potentially too but unlikely but pretty close to 1B with a China release. Thor 4 wouldn't have touched it even with a China release though. 

 

I'm actually hoping in the future if things don't change that there's a clean break and essentially no tentpoles get a China release going forward. 

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Did No Way Home have it?

 

Given how much China boosts WW totals for tentpoles, isn't it more interesting to compare WW sans China when another tentpole didn't get a release in China? As in, what are the WW totals this for every film excluding numbers in China.

When assessing true performance I will typically remove China (and now Russia). But if we’re just talking about rankings or charts, then the totals are the totals.

[Mr Roark]

Without taking into account China we would’ve had only Avatar over $2.5B and two less $2B film in the club…

[Legion Again]

 

[StreamBO]

If Avatar 2 has a 460 million production budget ((((that 1 billion all combined seems outdated, and was from maybe even before full production, plus cameron could be said is known for balloning the budget, plus the movie looks like a 460 million movie, the sequells probably will stay flat on budget, not less, because cameron will probably go more ambitious)))), plus 200 Global P&A or marketing that's 660 total budget.

 

Let's say Knowing studios domestic take a 50%,  international (not China) take a 40% and China a 25%.

 

Let's say overall percentage % worldwide is: 50+40+25=115÷3=~38.3%

 

Overall percentage Worldwide the Studio takes = 38.3%. 

 

Total Budget= 660 millions

 

So it needs 1724 millions or 1.724 billion to break even because

 

1724 x 38.3% = 660.292 millions

 

So let's say breakeven point is = 1.724 Billion not 2 billion. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

24 minutes ago, CJohn said:

We had 3 billion dollar movies this year and none of them was from the MCU. Times have truly changed.

The power of superhero fatigue, the thing exhibition is no doubt shitting their pants over. The one-two punch of Multiverse of Madness and Love and Thunder hurt the Marvel brand pretty badly, as evident by Wakanda Forever missing the billion dollar threshold it should have otherwise reached with ease. The real test will be next year. I can definitely see Quantumania and The Marvels being hit pretty hard by Marvel fatigue. Guardians 3 can go either way if I'm being honest.

[JimiQ]

All this talk about Avatar and its sequel made me watch… Titanic again after something like 20 years

[StreamBO]

3 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

All this talk about Avatar and its sequel made me watch… Titanic again after something like 20 years

And you saw why is considered a Masterpiece. 

[Firepower]

8 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The real test will be next year. I can definitely see Quantumania and The Marvels being hit pretty hard by Marvel fatigue. Guardians 3 can go either way if I'm being honest.

Well, yes. I don't see Ant-Man and The Marvels doing well at all. Guardians 3 - depends on reception, but 800 is probably its high point if it's really well received.

[stripe]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

A $21M Wednesday?

 

Cuts the deficit to just over $20M, depending on actuals - first day of real separation from RO (other than Xmas) at +16-17%. Do wonder how much might be spillover (especially PLF) from pretty packed Sun/Mon/Tue, so won't be totally surprised if we see a marginally bigger drop than the -7% RO had for Thursday, or it could continue the flatter line as spillover continues, so -5-10% or $19-$20M expected

 

I said before this holiday week that expectations should be in range of -5% to +10% of RO, and last few days are definitely trending to the higher end of that range

Also can clearly see the impact of the storm last week on 12/22 & 12/23

 

 

 

At this point, it's really probable that Avatar 2 will have a cumulative gross in the 435-440M range after Monday 2nd January. That would be almost the same Holiday gross as RO. That deficit is about to disappear soon.

[cubsfan]

15 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

All this talk about Avatar and its sequel made me watch… Titanic again after something like 20 years

Should’ve waited for the rerelease in Feb.

[Factcheck]

16 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

If Avatar 2 has a 460 million production budget ((((that 1 billion all combined seems outdated, and was from maybe even before full production, plus cameron could be said is known for balloning the budget, plus the movie looks like a 460 million movie, the sequells probably will stay flat on budget, not less, because cameron will probably go more ambitious)))), plus 200 Global P&A or marketing that's 660 total budget.

 

Let's say Knowing studios domestic take a 50%,  international (not China) take a 40% and China a 25%.

 

Let's say overall percentage % worldwide is: 50+40+25=115÷3=~38.3%

 

Overall percentage Worldwide the Studio takes = 38.3%. 

 

Total Budget= 660 millions

 

So it needs 1724 millions or 1.724 billion to break even because

 

1724 x 38.3% = 660.292 millions

 

So let's say breakeven point is = 1.724 Billion not 2 billion. 

It will actually break even with just $1.5B box office, $200M WW TV money & $100M ancillary money. What ever it makes after $1.5 billion will be profit.

[Flopped]

Rewatched Avatar for the first time since 2009 and while I still really like it, I also half expected her to start singing this 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[AJG]

9 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

Why did I think Women Talking already came out?

[Grebacio]

 

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Grebacio

[Eric Furiosa]

4 minutes ago, AJG said:

Why did I think Women Talking already came out?

I mean it has in limited release. But nobody showed up.

[Flamengo81]

3 hours ago, grey ghost said:

2 billion is the new billion.

 

Remember when crossing a billion was a big deal?

Good old times when I was just a kid beggining to follow box office and mesmerized by The Dark Knight being the 4th movie to pass the billion dollar.

[CJohn]

18 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

Don't underestimate the NUMBER ONE MOVIE IN FRANCE

[Legion Again]

Women Talking, No One Listening