Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Why are we expecting this to jump lower than No Way Home from weekdays to the weekend

 

what am I missing, is there some calender stuff going on?

It honestly seems like some poeple are expecting A2 to drop like a rock now that the holidays are over.

Its probably all that comparing with R1 causing it.

[M37]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Ok thank you, so a bunch more people are on holiday right now than they were in 2015,2009,2021?

2021 has a big asterisk with COVID and Canada closures, but yes. A Friday Christmas means school/work closures almost all start the week before (12/18), and they are mostly back by Th 1/06. A Sunday holiday set-up pushes more of the resumption of routine to Mon 1/09, rather than 1/05, so Wed & Thu are still inflated 

[Gkalaitza]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

 

Titanic is always so funny in these graphs . Knowing what comes after that is

[Dragoncaine]

26 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

4th WE = 6-7x Thursday 

Imagine a $7m Thursday with this projected multiplier 😲

[M37]

7 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It honestly seems like some poeple are expecting A2 to drop like a rock now that the holidays are over.

Its probably all that comparing with R1 causing it.

 

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Not using Rogue One per se, but more the flow of the entire top 10 in 2017, which moved mostly uniformly during this week (and is the same process by which I said $10-$11 was the expected Tuesday when quite a few people were looking for $8 or $9M) 

 

If there is going to be a break, Friday is when it most likely happens, and Saturday to lesser degree, but for now we’re staying on schedule 

 

And fwiw, my general pessimism for the upcoming weekend isn’t specific to Avatwo, more of bracing for a post-holiday crash across the board. Maybe we get one more decent weekend first … but maybe not 

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

2021 has a big asterisk with COVID and Canada closures, but yes. A Friday Christmas means school/work closures almost all start the week before (12/18), and they are mostly back by Th 1/06. A Sunday holiday set-up pushes more of the resumption of routine to Mon 1/09, rather than 1/05, so Wed & Thu are still inflated 

Seems like such a guessing game as you need to know the % of people on holiday the effect that percentage has on the total gross.

[Sophia Jane]

I changed my mind

55m,let’s go

Edited January 5, 2023 by Bruce

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It honestly seems like some poeple are expecting A2 to drop like a rock now that the holidays are over.

It’s probably all that comparing with R1 causing it.

Literally no one is saying this. Almost every prediction on this forum has it no worse than the 5th highest (real) 4th weekend ever and most have it between 4th and 2nd highest ever. 

[M37]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Seems like such a guessing game as you need to know the % of people on holiday the effect that percentage has on the total gross.

Is there a lot of nuance and fuzzy math there? Sure, but that Tue and Wed have been largely predictable by using 2017 lends weight to the idea that will continue into the weekend 

 

Maybe Avatwo breaks free or the trendline and overperforms (or even everything does), but in the absence of other evidence, that should be the baseline for expectations 

[LinksterAC]

10 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Imagine a $7m Thursday with this projected multiplier 😲

I wouldn't be surprised if it got there & flirted with 50M this weekend.

 

Using the Thursday multiplier is difficult to parse for me because Canada being on holiday should drag that multiplier down but the long runtime should lift it back up.

 

ROTK (long runtime) had a multiplier in the 8.5x vicinity (IIRC), whereas RO (same schedule) was around 5.5x. 7x splits that difference, so it seems like a reasonable guess.

 

Edit:

 

All that said, I also wouldn't be surprised if the number it was flirting with was 40M.

Edited January 5, 2023 by LinksterAC

[Dale Cooper]

Better number. Still sticking with ~38m for the weekend. 

[ThomasNicole]

I'm fine with 38M tbh, still locks +600M 

 

But i think it will do 41-42M, smaller bump on FRI will just make SAT bump higher 

 

And weekdays are amazing, for all the concerns WED ended up great 

[filmscholar]

Grosses

DOMESTIC (30.9%)
$457,483,420

INTERNATIONAL (69.1%)
$1,025,200,000

WORLDWIDE
$1,482,683,420

 

I've been tracking the run quietly the last two weeks.   I was surprised by the OW but you really can't bet against James.  Wow at this run thus far.   Also "Rogue One" was a good comparison in the beginning but it looks to past that very soon Domestically.    The fact is making 1.5 in 3 weeks in this market and climate is a very big success story.  I still can't believe no Marvel Film crossed 1 Billion though Strange got close.   But both BPWF and TLAT missed.   Avatar 2, Top Gun 2 and Jurassic 6 will end as Top 3 Globally of 2022.  Three very strong Franchises that audiences trust.   James Sequel streak continues.  (Piranha 2 doesn't count, lol.) 

[IronJimbo]

Were TGM's 3rd mon-fri over the summer holidays?

[Grebacio]

43 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

With BP2 going to D+ after 83 days, I won't not be surprised Avatar 2 will only come to home media by mid-March. 

It should be 2 weeks after the Oscars as soonest.

[Flopped]

News of A2 been the #1 movie of the year will only attract more people who were on the fence. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[hw64]

39 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

ROTK (long runtime) had a multiplier in the 8.5x vicinity (IIRC), whereas RO (same schedule) was around 5.5x. 7x splits that difference, so it seems like a reasonable guess.

 

It also had a Thursday of $1.65m which Avatar 2 will quadruple, and bigger numbers = lower multipliers. Not to mention the fact that Return of the King's third Thursday was 4 days further removed from the end of the holiday period than Avatar 2's, which, as other people have pointed out, makes a huge difference in the behaviour of the first post-holiday week. Avatar 2's third Thursday will be artificially bloated a bit by its proximity to the end of the holidays (only 3 days prior) compared to Return of the King's third Thursday which was 7 days (and an entire weekend) removed from the end of the holidays.

 

So I don't think looking at Return of the King's Thursday-to-weekend multiplier is a good idea at all here, even if you're just splitting the difference between it and a more appropriate comp.

Edited January 5, 2023 by hw64

[M37]

Alright fine, wasn't going to post this until tomorrow* so haven't had time to pretty it up, but do you want to know why I keep referencing 2016-17? Here is how the entire top 10 has tracked since Friday 12/16 for the two years, using Friday 12/23 as the baseline value (because of the winter storm impact on that specific day this year, I made a small adjustment, but doesn't affect the overall picture)

 

 

Since the Wed 12/22 openings, its been a nearly identical trajectory, with a couple of holidays where 2022 pushed up higher, largely thanks to Avatwo. I do expect these to diverge a bit over this upcoming weekend because of new release ($36.5M in 2017 vs Megan), and that the NFL playoffs kicked off on Sat 1/07 in 2017, but until they break, that's the path forward

 

So yeah, the calendar matters quite a bit until we get to Monday (1/09), when every year is basically on equal footing.

 

*As to why I was holding off, you'll just have to wait 🙃

Edited January 5, 2023 by M37

[TwoMisfits]

58 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Ok thank you, so a bunch more people are on holiday right now than they were in 2015,2009,2021?

 

Well, Canada is...and for this movie vs Spidey, that seems to make an enormous difference...