MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[SchumacherFTW]

37 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Let’s go with $30m for Avatar

Who cares about Avatar when you can discuss acronyms. When does font discussion start? Papyrus ain't that bad. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

M3GAN has some horror competition this weekend, who knew?

 

 

 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

8 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

M3GAN has some horror competition this weekend, who knew?

 

 

 

 

 

Really want to check out Skinamaraink, but it's only playing for two days at my local theater and it's all nightime showings that don't work with my schedule. Very frustrating and very weird. You can't even play the movie on Sunday?

[titanic2187]

Otto's run suddenly become interesting after strong $4.2m semi-wide opening and crazy 93% Tuesday jump. This could become a modest hit as if the Dog of 2023.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

14 minutes ago, Eric the Plane said:

Really want to check out Skinamaraink, but it's only playing for two days at my local theater and it's all nightime showings that don't work with my schedule. Very frustrating and very weird. You can't even play the movie on Sunday?

That's odd, locally I am seeing limited showtimes for Skinamarink but a couple starting at 4:00 pm or so and some on Sunday, though one location only has a single afternoon showing on the 15th. I guess it depends on the theater?

[Firepower]

Rooting for 200+% increase for A2.

[Flip]

Puss in Boots over Black Adam is really going to happen, and it will be glorious

[Alexdube]

56 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agree, which is why I won’t argue against “good to very good” legs, but will push back a bit against the 5x OW/exceptional talk. Because we also cannot ignore the weak release schedule, the absence of second tier titles going after its knees, or even the lower level ankle biters shaving off some potential, which all of the comparable top level December openings faced. It got the benefit of the holidays and the open field we usually see for first weekend of May releases (*** all around!)

 

If Shazam 2 has kept its December date, while they absolutely could have coexisted, how much does that shave off the total and lower the multi more towards above average range?

 

I don't know why some people are so afraid of the word "exceptional". Exceptional doesn't mean "best ever". Avatar 2 is going to land somewhere in the top 10 DOM highest grossing movie of all time from a #37 OW, it is an all around high-end exceptional performance, that is just factual.

 

Now you can debate with other high-end runs which is the most impressive and bring up all the factoids you want to compare them, but denying that from Avatar kind of just makes you look like you want to downplay the run from a not-so-objective perspective

[Skim Beeble]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

M3GAN has some horror competition this weekend, who knew?

 

 

 

 

 

Wasn't even aware of Skinamarink's existence until I saw the trailer before M3GAN last week. Now all of the sudden everyone is talking about it. (at least in my social media circle) Saw it yesterday and was really impressed with it. Hopefully it expands more within the coming weeks. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Skim Beeble

[Flip]

based off this Thursday number, if it jumps like No way Home (might jump higher) it will get a friday of around 7.2m

[Sophia Jane]

5 minutes ago, Flip said:

based off this Thursday number, if it jumps like No way Home (might jump higher) it will get a friday of around 7.2m

8m or flop

Weekday is so weak,we need weekend to get some recover

[Dale Cooper]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Agree, which is why I won’t argue against “good to very good” legs, but will push back a bit against the 5x OW/exceptional talk. Because we also cannot ignore the weak release schedule, the absence of second tier titles going after its knees, or even the lower level ankle biters shaving off some potential, which all of the comparable top level December openings faced. It got the benefit of the holidays and the open field we usually see for first weekend of May releases (*** all around!)

 

If Shazam 2 has kept its December date, while they absolutely could have coexisted, how much does that shave off the total and lower the multi more towards above average range?

It might have cut off some of its legs, but it would also have made its Opening Week slightly smaller. My guess is that if it had kept its original opening it wouldn't have made nearly as much damage to A2 as A2 would have done to it. But sure, we might have had a slightly lower multi, still pretty good though is my guess and clearly well above average. But I guess we will never know.

[Verrows]

23 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

 

I don't know why some people are so afraid of the word "exceptional". Exceptional doesn't mean "best ever". Avatar 2 is going to land somewhere in the top 10 DOM highest grossing movie of all time from a #37 OW, it is an all around high-end exceptional performance, that is just factual.

 

Now you can debate with other high-end runs which is the most impressive and bring up all the factoids you want to compare them, but denying that from Avatar kind of just makes you look like you want to downplay the run from a not-so-objective perspective

I appreciate what you're saying, but it is in fact a very objective perspective. 

 

A2's run is undeniably special but I think, just like Spider-Man: No Way Home last year, the dearth of, well, anything else at the box office is a sobering fact that looms large in the background for all us box office nerds. It's not meant to discredit or minimize Way of Water. I think people like M37 just don't want to pretend these circumstances don't exist.

[Flip]

The same Thurs-Fri jump as Sing 2 gets PIB to 3.5 for Friday, and the same Friday-weekend multiplier would get it to 15.4m. Probably too optimistic, but let's wait and see

[danziger]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Agree, which is why I won’t argue against “good to very good” legs, but will push back a bit against the 5x OW/exceptional talk. Because we also cannot ignore the weak release schedule, the absence of second tier titles going after its knees, or even the lower level ankle biters shaving off some potential, which all of the comparable top level December openings faced. It got the benefit of the holidays and the open field we usually see for first weekend of May releases (*** all around!)

 

If Shazam 2 has kept its December date, while they absolutely could have coexisted, how much does that shave off the total and lower the multi more towards above average range?

 

First I appreciate the data you bring to these discussions, you clearly have great knowledge of the business, and this post isn't about shaming anyone's wrong predictions. I'm wrong all the time and have lower standing than anyone since I never even predicted anything for Avatar 2. Only posting this as a reminder of how massively the goalposts have shifted since OW.

 

Ok, so you compared Avatar 2's multiplier from OWeek to Sherlock 2's without noting that even adjusting for CPI inflation, S2's OWeek was way smaller ($77.3m vs. A2's $197.7m), and then in the very next sentence you said "Make of those legs what you will." As @Dale Cooperpointed out, LOTR 1 would've been a much fairer (albeit still very flawed) comparison.

 

By your own standard from four weeks ago, when you said "“but legs” will be the copium, then next weekend will be “wait til after Christmas”, before reality finally sinks in by January" and "let's set some perspective and expectations moving forward," Avatar 2's legs have achieved "truly rarified air":

 

"IMO, a "good" result would be matching the 2.4x of TFA/RO from this release window, while a really good result would be somewhere around WW at 2.8x, and anything above 3.0x is truly rarefied air (which of course we've seen from Cameron before, but expecting such an outlier seems ... imprudent)"

 

You said that when the "benefit of holidays and the open field" was known. You thought A2 would be "topping out at like Hobbit levels of legs. Because there’s really no data to suggest some magical run is brewing, other than the name in the title, and from a much different box office - and social - landscape 13 years ago." That equals $530m (2.68x), which it passed yesterday on the precipice of having probably a top 5 all-time 5th weekend. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Who cares about Avatar when you can discuss acronyms. When does font discussion start? Papyrus ain't that bad. 

Helvetica FTW 

 

[Grebacio]

3 hours ago, Grebacio said:

Just remembered how wild B:CLoAFMBGNOK run was.
Too bad we missed BSM:DoPBtARfMBOGNoK run 
 

In case anyone was wondering, these are also real ancronyms


 

Spoiler

 

[Alexdube]

52 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I appreciate what you're saying, but it is in fact a very objective perspective. 

 

A2's run is undeniably special but I think, just like Spider-Man: No Way Home last year, the dearth of, well, anything else at the box office is a sobering fact that looms large in the background for all us box office nerds. It's not meant to discredit or minimize Way of Water. I think people like M37 just don't want to pretend these circumstances don't exist.

Well there you said it, "undeniably special" or "exceptional", same thing.

 

Now that we all agree on that, sure we can bring up circumstances that make the run look less good but the opposite is also true. A2 is also facing hurdles that other movies it's being compared to did not have to face, like that aftermaths of a pandemic for instance. Rest assured that a lot of people are still not too hot about going in a packed theater in the middle of winter. You still need to give people a very good reason to get out of the house, which is what Avatar did, it's not just because "nothing else" is playing.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Alexdube

[Alexdube]

10 minutes ago, danziger said:

 

First I appreciate the data you bring to these discussions, you clearly have great knowledge of the business, and this post isn't about shaming anyone's wrong predictions. I'm wrong all the time and have lower standing than anyone since I never even predicted anything for Avatar 2. Only posting this as a reminder of how massively the goalposts have shifted since OW.

 

Ok, so you compared Avatar 2's multiplier from OWeek to Sherlock 2's without noting that even adjusting for CPI inflation, S2's OWeek was way smaller ($77.3m vs. A2's $197.7m), and then in the very next sentence you said "Make of those legs what you will." As @Dale Cooperpointed out, LOTR 1 would've been a much fairer (albeit still very flawed) comparison.

 

By your own standard from four weeks ago, when you said "“but legs” will be the copium, then next weekend will be “wait til after Christmas”, before reality finally sinks in by January" and "let's set some perspective and expectations moving forward," Avatar 2's legs have achieved "truly rarified air":

 

"IMO, a "good" result would be matching the 2.4x of TFA/RO from this release window, while a really good result would be somewhere around WW at 2.8x, and anything above 3.0x is truly rarefied air (which of course we've seen from Cameron before, but expecting such an outlier seems ... imprudent)"

 

You said that when the "benefit of holidays and the open field" was known. You thought A2 would be "topping out at like Hobbit levels of legs. Because there’s really no data to suggest some magical run is brewing, other than the name in the title, and from a much different box office - and social - landscape 13 years ago." That equals $530m (2.68x), which it passed yesterday on the precipice of having probably a top 5 all-time 5th weekend. 

that quote is brutal 😆

[spazz91]

9 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Helvetica FTW 

 

Helvetica why

 

Tahoma, Calibri, Trebuchet, Roboto are top tier

 

Shout-out to the meme fonts like wingdings 3 and comic sans though. They have their place too.