Short Weekdays thread Jan 17 to Jan 19

[hw64]

15 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Even if China grossed zero this weekend, we would still be talking somehwere around 2.025-2.03bil by the end of the weekend.

 

China 'only' grossed 12mil out of the 93mil international weekend this weekend.

I swear some poeple are thinking China is making up 50% of A2's international gross or something.

 

You realize that $93m isn't a 3-day, right?

[DAJK]

M3GAN's looking to fall below Smile this weekend, although I still think 100M is possible. It does have 2 weeks with the horror market nearly to itself until Knock at the Cabin, so I think the drop could be rather minimal this weekend (it isn't touching Smile's 12M but I think 11 is possible).

 

Puss will also be above 10 for the weekend. BOP has Otto at 9... would be awesome if it could hit 10 and we can have 4 movies over double digits this weekend.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

You realize that $93m isn't a 3-day, right?

Is it not?. They included Monday in the number?, a bit weird as international wasnt a 4 day weekend.

Well ok knock 8 or 9 mill off what i said.

And besides China isnt going to gross zero anyway, it will probably be around 5mil if i had to guess.

[KGPatt2]

9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Man Tobey is my fave Spiderman, but damn he's not aging well is he?, he looks 50 in that gif.

I mean...he's 47.

[hw64]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Is it not?. They included Monday in the number?, a bit weird as international wasnt a 4 day weekend.

Well ok knock 8 or 9 mill off what i said.

And besides China isnt going to gross zero anyway, it will probably be around 5mil if i had to guess.

 

International weekends are never 3-days, they're a sum of all the "weekends" in overseas territories, which is Fri-Sun in a lot of markets but Thu-Sun and Wed-Sun in some others. The actual international 3-day last week was probably around $80-$82m.

[stuart360]

Just now, KGPatt2 said:

I mean...he's 47.

Oh shit, doesnt time fly!.

[Agafin]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Is it not?. They included Monday in the number?, a bit weird as international wasnt a 4 day weekend.

Well ok knock 8 or 9 mill off what i said.

And besides China isnt going to gross zero anyway, it will probably be around 5mil if i had to guess.

I don't think hw64 is talking about the 4 day weekend, that's purely domestic.

 

The $93m international weekend is a combination of weekends from different territories with different definitions of what constitutes a weekend. So for some places it's three days but in most it's four days and in some it's five (like France). So China's $12m is a bigger share of the actual 3 day part of the international weekend.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

International weekends are never 3-days, they're a sum of all the "weekends" in overseas territories, which is Fri-Sun in a lot of markets but Thu-Sun and Wed-Sun in some others. The actual international 3-day last week was probably around $80-$82m.

Oh i already know that but we still get international weekday numbers and 3 day weekend numbers, regardles of the 'ins and outs' of how its worked out.

[Agafin]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Oh i already know that but we still get international weekday numbers and 3 day weekend numbers, regardles of the 'ins and outs' of how its worked out.

Did we get 3 day weekend numbers for this past weekend?

[stuart360]

Just now, Agafin said:

Did we get 3 day weekend numbers for this past weekend?

What i mean is we still get the wekend number, regradless whether it will be 3day, 4day, or 5 day in France. we still got the 93mil number, we still got last weeks number, and the week befores etc, which is what i'm using to work out predictions (which i have beenvery close with so far, lowballng every week actually).

[Krissykins]

It’s the 27th that will be the really quiet weekend. Infinity Pool is the only opener, it’s from Neon so I can’t imagine it going very wide. I can’t wait to see it, but I doubt it will have any wide appeal. 
 

“Fear” and “Distant” were on this date, but aren’t opening and don’t have new dates. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Krissykins

[DAJK]

Anyone have an idea how wide The Son is opening this weekend? I doubt it will make much of a dent, but if it hits 1000 theatres, it could manage a million or so.

[CJohn]

Otto needs to pull a small miracle and do 10M+ this weekend.

[GOGODanca]

even if you take away the china gross from the past OS "weekend" its still ~81m, NWH on the same OS overseas "weekend" did 33m and that was with russia, also there's nothing really opening OS until Ant-Man, so it should have several more really good weekends even without china which it will still have friday and saturday this weekend

[hw64]

22 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

What i mean is we still get the wekend number, regradless whether it will be 3day, 4day, or 5 day in France. we still got the 93mil number, we still got last weeks number, and the week befores etc, which is what i'm using to work out predictions (which i have beenvery close with so far, lowballng every week actually).

 

The problem is that you're double-counting by adding in predicted Wednesday and Thursday grosses internationally and then adding in an international 3-day weekend which you've worked out based off of the $93m international weekend last week, which isn't a 3-day and which already includes some Wednesday and Thursday grosses in certain markets.

[The Dark Alfred]

A2 looks to overflow Jedi and Avengers and enter all time domestic top 10. But can it catch the dinos? New showdown.

 

Their 33rd day was nearly identical. JW has a 21m lead, but had a much worse 5th weeeknd. It has the benefit of summer weekdays though. Should be a fun one this.

 

JURAWATER SHOWDOWN  - AVATAR 2 VS JURASSIC WORLD

 

DAY 33: (TUESDAY) AVATAR 2.8m

DAY 33: (TUESDAY) JURASSIC WORLD 2.78m

 

WATER TEMP: HOT (+0.22m)

CUME: AVATAR 574.48m  VS  JW 595.62m

SEA LEVEL: MINUS 21.14m

WATER FLOW: 647m

Edited January 18, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

The problem is that you're double-counting by adding in predicted Wednesday and Thursday grosses internationally and then adding in an international 3-day weekend which you've worked out based off of the $93m international weekend last week, which isn't a 3-day and which already includes some Wednesday and Thursday grosses in certain markets.

I'm making predictions off the international weekday and weekend numbers we are given. If there is something wrong with those numbers than that isnt on me.

And like i said, i have been very close with where i predict A2 will be after the coming weekends, in fact i have often lowballed.

 

Look i'll put it another way, i predict A2 will be at 2.03+bil after this coming weekend. Ok?.

 

Yes the changes in China this weekend could hamper that a bit, but at the same time its still going to gross something (5mil is my guess).

 

Thats me done now.

[shachi86]

Off of that Tuesday, and the good Fri/Sat jumps Ava2ar's been having, I think we're realistically looking at a $17-19m 6th weekend. Could challenge Black Panther's 6th weekend for 6th place. But don't quote me on that.

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, shachi86 said:

Off of that Tuesday, and the good Fri/Sat jumps Ava2ar's been having, I think we're realistically looking at a $17-19m 6th weekend. Could challenge Black Panther's 6th weekend for 6th place. But don't quote me on that.

 

20 - 22 m

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, druv10 said:

You do realize that on Monday it only dropped 16% compared most movies dropping high 20s to lows 30s with some dropping 40 so 73% is perfectly fine for Tuesday.

I know I'm just overreacting.