Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

That would still make it the lowest January since 1997 (apart from 2020 and 2021). Though not far off of 2000 or so.

Based on that there is still a long way to go.

Yes, but I’m of the opinion it doesn’t get all the way back, at least for a long while. A month like January is going to be especially difficult to match pre-pandemic, given the weakness is specialty market, adult drama, and second and third tier titles that all used to help boost this month. Now it’s just holiday leftovers and horror movies 

 

A post-pandemic market where the lows (Jan - early Feb and Labor Day - Halloween) are lower, but the middles (Mar, Apr & Aug) and the highs (May-July and Nov/Dec) can get somewhat close to matching is about the best we can hope for IMO

[Krissykins]

8 of the top 10 this weekend are also “Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes as well. 

[Eric Prime]

Your faves could never. 😎 

 

 

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, Hilpkioy said:

Definitely, there are still a few big markets left to open especially the UK.

 

yeah. I think it could do $25 million plus over here in the U.K.  

[poweranimals]

Ugh. I see theNumbers is broken again.

[Cheddar Please]

19.65 is slightly below my target of 20.5m for the weekend, but I think there's a slim chance that it can round up 20m with revised Sunday numbers. In any case, my projections remain the same. The trend indicates A2 to have mid 20s-30% drops for the next few weeks leading up to Ant-Man OW, which will take a large chunk out of it's legs (For those of you doubting, even TGM took a 40% drop in the face of Thor 4). Looking at 665-680m final

[Brainbug]

To cross 2 Billion in our post-Covid box office landscape and do that with relative ease (meaning that it still has a lot left in the tank, especially OS) is nothing short of amazing. Huge, huge respect for the film, Cameron and all people involved in this project, its yet another proof that cinemas are far from dead and that people will turn up if its the right film at the right time.

 

Puss in Boots continues its epic run. I really hope it can stay above 10M next weekend, though the number will probably begin with a 9. Nevertheless, 150M is locked and 175 - 190M should be the likely range where it will end. After its low OW, this is just pure bliss to follow and shows that 1) theatrical animation can still very much work and 2) the Shrek brand is more than just memes. Bring on Shrek 5, Dreamworks, make that a good movie and youll have your 1,5B+ hit.

 

M3GAN, i hoped for 10M+, but its not a bad hold by any means. Remember, horror movies normally crash and burn in January (and in general more often than not as well), so any multiplier that reaches a x3 region is worthy of celebration. It imo still has an outside shot at 100M, but 90Mish seems far more likely at this point. Worldwide, 150M is locked and 170M could be its finish, which would be obviously great with the 12M budget in mind.

 

Good holds for Otto and The Whale as well. Missing with a solid debut, yet another profitable film for the market and with good WOM, a 25M+ total looks possible.

 

Overall, a solid weekend. Like others have mentioned, year-on-year, this January is a lot better than last year, but its also considerably lower than the pre-Covid years. Most of that can be explained simply by a lack of market depth though as outside of M3GAN there hasnt been a "big" January movie and the month mostly relies on the Holiday holdovers.

[Cheddar Please]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

To cross 2 Billion in our post-Covid box office landscape and do that with relative ease (meaning that it still has a lot left in the tank, especially OS) is nothing short of amazing. Huge, huge respect for the film, Cameron and all people involved in this project, its yet another proof that cinemas are far from dead and that people will turn up if its the right film at the right time.

 

Puss in Boots continues its epic run. I really hope it can stay above 10M next weekend, though the number will probably begin with a 9. Nevertheless, 150M is locked and 175 - 190M should be the likely range where it will end. After its low OW, this is just pure bliss to follow and shows that 1) theatrical animation can still very much work and 2) the Shrek brand is more than just memes. Bring on Shrek 5, Dreamworks, make that a good movie and youll have your 1,5B+ hit.

 

M3GAN, i hoped for 10M+, but its not a bad hold by any means. Remember, horror movies normally crash and burn in January (and in general more often than not as well), so any multiplier that reaches a x3 region is worthy of celebration. It imo still has an outside shot at 100M, but 90Mish seems far more likely at this point. Worldwide, 150M is locked and 170M could be its finish, which would be obviously great with the 12M budget in mind.

 

Good holds for Otto and The Whale as well. Missing with a solid debut, yet another profitable film for the market and with good WOM, a 25M+ total looks possible.

 

Overall, a solid weekend. Like others have mentioned, year-on-year, this January is a lot better than last year, but its also considerably lower than the pre-Covid years. Most of that can be explained simply by a lack of market depth though as outside of M3GAN there hasnt been a "big" January movie and the month mostly relies on the Holiday holdovers.

9 or 10B this year?

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Cheddar Please said:

9 or 10B this year?

 

Imo, this comes down to the performance of Spring and Summer mainly. If the heavy hitters like Mario, GOTG 3, Little Mermaid, Indy and Co. truly live up to their potential, we could see a level of box office in those seasons that could come close to pre-Covid levels.

 

If we use the current improvement from last year (+39% per Deadline), that would give us 10,24B for the whole year. Of course, thats far from an optimal method, but since im an optimist at heart, id say that 10B is not at all impossible to reach for 2023.

[MovieMan89]

22 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Imo, this comes down to the performance of Spring and Summer mainly. If the heavy hitters like Mario, GOTG 3, Little Mermaid, Indy and Co. truly live up to their potential, we could see a level of box office in those seasons that could come close to pre-Covid levels.

 

If we use the current improvement from last year (+39% per Deadline), that would give us 10,24B for the whole year. Of course, thats far from an optimal method, but since im an optimist at heart, id say that 10B is not at all impossible to reach for 2023.

I honestly think Indy is doomed unless we get some Logan level brilliance out of Mangold or something here. That’s what it will take to get the TGM audience out to see it, and that is the audience it is 100% hinging on to be successful.

 

 I also think GotG is pretty definitively locked into around 400 DOM, with the exceptions of it getting either toxic or sensational WOM. 
 

Mermaid will be huge if and only if they give us something more akin to Aladdin in quality. Another TLK/Mulan pointless and dull remake isn’t gonna cut it this time. But I do feel pretty confident it’s going to be way more of an Aladdin in quality though and will be huge.

 

Mario will overperform all expectations in the industry and blow everyone away with the pop culture phenomenon it becomes, keep your eye on the 2023 DOM and WW crown with that one. 
 

Fast will continue its decline but should still be fairly huge OS. Spiderverse is the other big wild card given the IP has truly hit the stratosphere of popularity in recent years and there is a ton of goodwill from the first. Could be a massive DOM success, though it’s in the middle of the busiest blockbuster summer ever, so I don’t like that for it. 
 

Transformers could surprise now that it’s out of the dastardly clutches of Bay, but it will have to rely on being a slow burn WOM hit if it’s any good, no massive opening for that one. 
 

Oppenheimer will prove Nolan’s blockbuster days are officially behind him and should put him firmly in the category of most other auteur directors that have their fervent fans but hardly get mass success with their films.

 

Barbie is in a fantastic spot coming at the end of the summer onslaught and given both Gerwig and Gosling are very rarely involved in projects that aren’t very acclaimed, I’d still look to it to be a huge breakout hit. That said, I’d expect Captain Marvel to get hit hard by it if it does breakout since both will be going for a sikailr audience and I firmly believe there’s not a ton of goodwill from the first CM film to carry over to this one (though Iman’s Kamala was the shining gem of all of phase 4 and if they have any brains they’ll make the film focus on her). 
 

Overall, as I’ve mentioned, if this summer isn’t a massive shot in the arm for the BO, we really are in trouble bc it doesn’t get more packed than this. 

[Mr Roark]

Mojo estimates $20M:

 

FRI: 4.575

SAT: 9.275

SUN: 6.150

 

 

[DAJK]

The fact that the current box office's discrepancy from pre-Covid years can be largely attributed to a lack of market depth has me pretty convinced that we are nearing full recovery. The studios practically had to start from square one. This is to be expected. I'm excited for what 2023 has to offer.

[MikeQ]

It's incredible to see another film pass the $2 billion mark, and have the legs to do so handily. Not too long ago it was unclear if Way of Water would even pass Jurassic World's $1.67 billion.

 

It's only the 5th film to hit $2 billion in its original run, and ultimately will be only the third film to do so without China (and for that matter, without Russia too).

 

$2 billion Films WW-China (Original Runs)

1. Avatar (2009) — 2.54 billion
2. Avengers: Endgame (2019) — 2.17 billion
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 2+ billion

 

The sole milestone left that I'm interested in is whether it can hit $670 million domestically and achieve that 5+ multiplier. Next weekend's drop I think will give us a clearer picture of whether that looks very probable or not.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited January 22, 2023 by MikeQ

[Borobudur]

Disappointing domestic number but awesome overseas run so far. Avatar may not even hit $700m after all but $680m is a nice target. 

[MovieMan89]

Lol, I completely forgot about Mission Impossible. No clue what to expect there bc everytime I have thought for sure MI would break its ceiling, it fails to do so. Hard to imagine better WOM than the last 3. There’s also the part 1 curse, they really need to rename it. This summer is ridiculous honestly, I think it very well may be too much. 

[MovieMan89]

And running through it all, I’m more convinced than ever Indy 5 is the most likely candidate to be a “shocking” box office bomb. Competition way too stiff, the young audience doesn’t care, and unless the script is exceptional it’s too little too late for the audience that should care imo.

[thajdikt]

Can Puss get to 500M worldwide?

[Brainbug]

23 minutes ago, DAJK said:

The fact that the current box office's discrepancy from pre-Covid years can be largely attributed to a lack of market depth has me pretty convinced that we are nearing full recovery. The studios practically had to start from square one. This is to be expected. I'm excited for what 2023 has to offer.

 

Looking at BOM, the Januarys pre-Covid all had roughly between 140 and 180 movies playing in that month; 2021 had 55, 2022 had 66 and 2023 currently has 65 (will probably not be more than 70 in the end). It will take another year at least before there are as many movies playing in theaters as there were before the pandemic.

[MovieMan89]

ROs multi from here was 3.75x. Considering A2 has consistently blown that movie’s holds out of the water (lol), I think we have to set 4.5x as the floor for A2s multi from here. That would put it around 670, depending on what happens with the estimate. So there’s really no reason at all for some of these lowball predictions in the 650 range. Still absolutely on board the 700 train, but sadly I have hopped off the TGM train after this weekend. Needed to see at least 22 to stay hopeful there. I think it only potentially happens if they have a huge 3D/Imax re-release planned later this year and it adds a solid 10-15m from that. 

[Cheddar Please]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Looking at BOM, the Januarys pre-Covid all had roughly between 140 and 180 movies playing in that month; 2021 had 55, 2022 had 66 and 2023 currently has 65 (will probably not be more than 70 in the end). It will take another year at least before there are as many movies playing in theaters as there were before the pandemic.

I predict that the Box office will recover to pre-COVID grosses, but that admissions will be permanently affected. In other words, we'll be back to 11B by next year and going forwards, but that 11B isn't gonna be nearly as much admissions wise as it used to be pre-COVID