Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Popcorn day

Actually yeah, probably the most likely reason for an across the board bump, which would nudge down Friday bumps rather than be a signal of a stronger weekend overall

[GOGODanca]

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1616473351157080067

[Legion Again]

50 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Missing possibly outgrossing Searching was definitely not on my bucket list. Also I wonder how much of the gross is from Regal Mystery Movie admissions.

You know, hadn’t even occurred to me but that’s an interesting angle. Of Mystery movie gross was rolled in (not sure if we even have precedent?) then the fri/th could look gnarly from a POV that didn’t account for that. So we will see how it shakes out.

[filmlover]

The strength of 2023 so far makes me confident this will be the year the movie theater industry returns to around pre-2020 levels or not far off from it. The only thing that can be qualified as a flop so far (House Party) is one that everyone saw coming well in advance.

[M37]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The strength of 2023 so far makes me confident this will be the year the movie theater industry returns to around pre-2020 levels or not far off from it. The only thing that can be qualified as a flop so far (House Party) is one that everyone saw coming well in advance.

In terms of grossing potential? Yeah, maybe not all that far off, but there's still limited product and weakness in several generes, so ceiling is lower.

 

But when factoring in the massive ATP increase underlying those numbers, admissions are still way down

[Krissykins]

Over $7m is a win for Missing, as that is what it cost. 
 

Nice. 
 

So maybe January will only have one dull weekend (next week).

[Alex SciChannel]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

That's the highest daily international gross for TWOW this week, I think, and it's because of China. People are seeing it for the last time before it loses almost all of its screens. The Firday gross in China is 41% higher than last Friday.

Edited January 20, 2023 by kayumanggi

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, M37 said:

In terms of grossing potential? Yeah, maybe not all that far off, but there's still limited product and weakness in several generes, so ceiling is lower.

 

But when factoring in the massive ATP increase underlying those numbers, admissions are still way down

Given that January was always a month pre-COVID where the new releases were either Oscar contenders expanding after their limited bows over the holidays or (more often) dumped garbage the studios have no faith in, the fact 2023 has begun with three thrillers (M3GAN, Plane, Missing) that earned both decent reviews and are looking to make totals that range from "strong" to "acceptable" feels better than what we usually see at this time of year. Maybe studios are starting to figure out first quarter fare doesn't have to be quickly forgotten junk.

[DAJK]

Solid for Missing. The movie’s great BTW, hoping for 8M+.

[vafrow]

47 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The strength of 2023 so far makes me confident this will be the year the movie theater industry returns to around pre-2020 levels or not far off from it. The only thing that can be qualified as a flop so far (House Party) is one that everyone saw coming well in advance.

Even that isn't too bad. It had a low theatre count, and was essentially signaled as something that no one had high hopes for.

 

I feel Easter Sunday and Bros were far worse as you feel there was more of an effort there, and they fell flat.

 

January doing so well this year is great, because it was the slowest part of the calendar. Starting next month, it feels like we're back to a prepandemic schedule with big films every week, and it continues to September. That period will likely fill up as well as studios are able to date things they have in production.

[Torontofan]

Think Avatar is heading to 20 million weekend for sure.

 

2.025 billion by sunday

[M37]

37 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Given that January was always a month pre-COVID where the new releases were either Oscar contenders expanding after their limited bows over the holidays or (more often) dumped garbage the studios have no faith in, the fact 2023 has begun with three thrillers (M3GAN, Plane, Missing) that earned both decent reviews and are looking to make totals that range from "strong" to "acceptable" feels better than what we usually see at this time of year. Maybe studios are starting to figure out first quarter fare doesn't have to be quickly forgotten junk.

Plane is like 30% below previous Butler generic action vehicles. That may be “acceptable” in today’s market, but it’s still a drop-off 

 

M3G had a good debut, but horror has generally been fine, though getting there by lower OW/leggier runs. Otto has done very well, but again from a compared to last year not pre-pandemic lens 

 

So while I agree we’re off to a good start compared to 2022 (certainly better than I expected), important to keep perspective on how far below pre-pandemic baseline it remains, especially when looking at admits

[Legion Again]

Am curious to see to what degree Otto can Upside

[Torontofan]

40 minutes ago, M37 said:

Plane is like 30% below previous Butler generic action vehicles. That may be “acceptable” in today’s market, but it’s still a drop-off 

 

M3G had a good debut, but horror has generally been fine, though getting there by lower OW/leggier runs. Otto has done very well, but again from a compared to last year not pre-pandemic lens 

 

So while I agree we’re off to a good start compared to 2022 (certainly better than I expected), important to keep perspective on how far below pre-pandemic baseline it remains, especially when looking at admits

Plane be a big hit on streaming though 

[Brainbug]

41 minutes ago, M37 said:

Plane is like 30% below previous Butler generic action vehicles. That may be “acceptable” in today’s market, but it’s still a drop-off 

 

M3G had a good debut, but horror has generally been fine, though getting there by lower OW/leggier runs. Otto has done very well, but again from a compared to last year not pre-pandemic lens 

 

So while I agree we’re off to a good start compared to 2022 (certainly better than I expected), important to keep perspective on how far below pre-pandemic baseline it remains, especially when looking at admits

 

I agree and i think we should not expect 2023 to come really close to pre-Covid box office (or even attendance) levels. A big plus compared to 2022 is that the movie line-up week to week from February to August looks stronger (Fall/Holiday season will hopefully fill up a bit), but personally, im looking at 2024 for the possible year that pre-Covid levels may be more reachable, atleast for a good portion of that year.

[GOGODanca]

Attendance is never gonna get back to pre pandemic levels, it's been decreasing for decades now and it's not gonna turn around unless ticket prices are slashed

[XXR vs XXR]

Looks like a $695-725M domestic finish for A2.

[GOGODanca]

A2 actuals for Thursday: $1,959,746 (+5%YD/-34%LW)

 

Same Thu to FSS multiplier gets A2 to 20.5m

 

same friday and saturday jumps as last week and sunday drop from 2 weeks ago (-34%) gets your basically $20.1m, hopefully we see better Fri and Sat

Edited January 20, 2023 by GOGODanca