Weekend Thread - Jan 27th-29th | Estimates - Avatar 15.7, Puss 10.6, Otto 6.75, M3GAN 6.37, Pathaan 5.95 | The Way of Water is the fourth-biggest movie of all time! Eleventh DOM! Zoe Saldana the GOAT

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

So EEAAO in a re-release - 45th week overall - is estimated to have grossed on par with both Whale and Women Talking with the Oscar Bumps & expansions? Way above Banshees and Tár too

 

People are just less willing to pay for the heavier subject matter it appears. RIP to the theatrical Oscar season, completely a niche market now 

It is actually 29th week. I can't accept people include those in between period where movie was not released in theater as part of the run. If that $1m hold, this would mean probably the biggest 29th weekend since My big fat greek wedding. 

 

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Russo Bros having success in producing while their actual post-Endgame projects have been greeted with apathy (Cherry, anyone?) is an example of "you win some, you lose some."

But thankfully Academy voters won't see their name on the ballot. 

 

[vafrow]

A few weeks ago, I would have probably looked at the schedule and label this particular weekend as a candidate to be the worst weekend of the year. Second weekend in a row without anything big from studios, and, I wouldn't have predicted the holdovers from the holidays or earlier in the month to have that much juice.

 

Its currently at $68M, which would put it above 15-20 weekends from last year. The thing is, it still might be one of the worst weekends. Things jump up starting next week, and don't really let up until the end of summer.

 

It's a good sign that things are going to be a lot healthier next year.

[Godzilla]

Puss in Boots 2 did $14.3M OS. $193.3M OS total and $334.1M worldwide. 

 

M3GAN did $7.8M OS, $146M worldwide. 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is actually 29th week. I can't accept people include those in between period where movie was not released in theater as part of the run. If that $1m hold, this would mean probably the biggest 29th weekend since My big fat greek wedding. 

Understand your point, but the 45 is relevant because it’s been that long since the initial marketing push, 9 months since peak grossing week (April), and even in those non-release weeks it was likely burning off demand from sub/VOD home viewing 

 

And yet still topped all the other Oscar movies 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

I know this comment was at least partially in jest, but I here is a just think clear audience preference for "fun" over quality on the theatrical side: becoming more of a pure entertainment experience. (If a film has both, it hits the relative jackpot, like TGM, EEAAO, Puss, and yes, even Avatwo). Its been a rough 3 years (or 6+, depending on perspective...), with enough downer real life circumstances that there's just no urge to actively seek out such content, or least not to overcome the hurdles of money and time commitment for theatrical viewing.

 

Stories of suffering are a harder sell when people have been through a collective trauma

This new landscape makes me wonder how well Batman v Superman would've fared had it been released today instead of back in 2016. Wakanda Forever was definitely financially hampered by its bleak tone, so not even Marvel is impervious to this shift.

[titanic2187]

22 hours ago, MikeQ said:

 

Whatever you think of James Cameron, this is an extraordinary accomplishment. Three of the top 4 highest grossing films, and three $2+ billion films from original ideas. I wonder if this will ever be replicated.

 

Peace,

Mike

All in it is a very great week for Avatar 2 where it passes $2bn, IW and SW7 in the same week while getting into Oscar best picture race.

 

It is now mega box office juggernaut with great leg plus one of the Oscar season winner. It check off basically every success box and the humiliation to the hater is now complete. 

[filmlover]

The fact that this was still a pretty good weekend overall despite little activity (the one opener - Infinity Pool - was always going to be a niche product) is more positive news for the industry since the rest of the first quarter is looking to be quite active for the time of year.

[todos]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

All in it is a very great week for Avatar 2 where it passes $2bn, IW and SW7 in the same week while getting into Oscar best picture race.

 

It is now mega box office juggernaut with great leg plus one of the Oscar season winner. It check off basically every success box and the humiliation to the hater is now complete. 

 

[Godzilla]

Honestly it's not impossible for Puss 2 to cross $460M WW and join top 10 worldwide of 2022.

[MikeQ]

1 hour ago, Godzilla said:

Maybe Avatar will be #1 again next weekend if Knock at the Cabin underperforms. 

 

I don't see how Knock at the Cabin misses at #1. It's looking at $20+ million, if BOP's forecast is any indication. I'd love to see it closer to a $30M opening - I'm hoping good reviews will help.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

13 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

This new landscape makes me wonder how well Batman v Superman would've fared had it been released today instead of back in 2016. Wakanda Forever was definitely financially hampered by its bleak tone, so not even Marvel is impervious to this shift.

That’s a glorified toy commercial. It would have done just fine today.

[filmlover]

The sales for Knock at the Cabin are looking really solid near me so far. I think it lands in the same low-$20M range as The Black Phone and Smile did.

[LinksterAC]

37 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Titanic’s $26M 25 years ago still blows my mind.

That run was the Michael Jordan of box office runs. 

 

So far beyond its contemporaries in so many ways as to beggar belief.

 

If you inflation-adjust that thing it's just ludicrous.

 

As a grade school aged Star Wars fan in 97/98, I absolutely despised Titanic because of how categorically superior its BO was.

Edited January 29, 2023 by LinksterAC

[TwoMisfits]

Next weekend will be harsh for holdovers - right now, my locals are both booking on full screens:

 

Knock at the Cabin

80 for Brady

The Amazing Maurice

The Chosen Season 3 Finale

BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas

Sword Art Online the Movie –Progressive– Scherzo of Deep Night 

 

So, 6-7 screens are already taken for a 14 and 12 screen theater...and you know Puss and Avatar will still get 1...so now everything else, it gets REALLY tight...

[MikeQ]

Very strong 22% drop this weekend for Way of Water - and what it needed to still have a possibility for hitting a 5+ multiplier (~670M). The next two weekends will be crucial, I think, to determine if I can hit the milestone, given that it will be hit hard when Ant-man arrives. Whether it makes it or not, what a run this has been to follow.

 

Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers):

1. Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67)
3. Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (4.63)^
5. Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55)
6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
7. Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94)
8. American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92)
9. Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89)
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78)
11. Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76)
12. The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71)
13. Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65)
14. Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60)
15. Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59)
16. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58)
17. The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53)
18. The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53)
19. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
20. Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52)

^ Run not yet complete

 

Peace,

Mike

[M37]

24 minutes ago, vafrow said:

A few weeks ago, I would have probably looked at the schedule and label this particular weekend as a candidate to be the worst weekend of the year. Second weekend in a row without anything big from studios, and, I wouldn't have predicted the holdovers from the holidays or earlier in the month to have that much juice.

 

Its currently at $68M, which would put it above 15-20 weekends from last year. The thing is, it still might be one of the worst weekends. Things jump up starting next week, and don't really let up until the end of summer.

 

It's a good sign that things are going to be a lot healthier next year.

This same weekend last year made only ~$31M, and that was with the effect of Omicron/Canada closures shifting a fair amount of demand later into Jan & Feb. Also ahead of 2018-2020 week 5s (which to be fair was SB weekend those years)

 

If as you said this is the floor - or at least close to it - then the overall market is much healthier than it was just a year ago, even if still in recovery 

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, MikeQ said:

Very strong 22% drop this weekend for Way of Water - and what it needed to still have a possibility for hitting a 5+ multiplier (~670M). The next two weekends will be crucial, I think, to determine if I can hit the milestone, given that it will be hit hard when Ant-man arrives. Whether it makes it or not, what a run this has been to follow.

 

 

 

Peace,

Mike

I get the worry for the competition from Antman but wasn't  NWH drop only 22% against $134m opener Batman? And that is when NWH gross was a lot smaller than Avatar 2 would on Antman's weekend. Even BA managed to drop "only" 56% against BPWF ($181m) with far weaker WOM.

 

Also, Antman is also quite a different type of blockbuster from Avatar 2, just like NWH from Batman. Even  I think there are chance two maybe able to coexist until busy schedule in March kick in. 

[grim22]

Wife was watching Click yesterday. The "far future" scenes in that movie, which are basically most of the third act, take place in the far flung year of...... 2023.

 

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Wife was watching Click yesterday. The "far future" scenes in that movie, which are basically most of the third act, take place in the far flung year of...... 2023.

 

 

Blade Runner is set in 2019.

 

[Issac Newton]

Oscars "Best Picture" Nominees Weekend

 

1. AVATAR 2 ($15.7M, $4,361 per)

2. EEAAO ($1.014M, $725 per)

3. WOMEN TALKING ($1.013M, $1,433 per)

4. THE FABELMANS ($760k, $387 per)

5. THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN ($353k, $293 per)

6. TAR ($173k, $322 per)