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Weekday Thread (2/21-2/23)

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9 minutes ago, Willowra said:

Not happening. KD has a director and writer attached; why would they delay KD for the rumoured projects that don't have writers and directors attached?

Because they should ditch the writer who just delievered a trash film that caused the franchises' biggest second weekend drop in history. I doubt the film is that far into pre-production that they can't do some major creative changes like this.

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I am not pleased with the slow rollout of the Cocaine Bear reviews. It's after 1 PM on the east coast and RT only has 8 reviews from critics and none from its Top Critics. At least all 8 of the reviews so far are fresh so this might be a fun little crowd pleaser that can squeeze in a lot of showings with its brief runtime.

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1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

should sonic 1 even be used a comp? I can imagine covid fears already slightly hurting the numbers at that point

Not much, probably. It really wasn’t until March when it started to break through into public consciousness enough to impact numbers. And then it happened so fast …

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1 hour ago, CJohn said:

30M 2nd weekend here we go.

 

As I said on the weekend, it's only hope to avoid a tragic 2nd weekend is boredom.  It's keeping huge showing sets at my local theaters (vs OW), so if you wanna watch a movie, you're almost still stuck with this one til Creed's OW...

 

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Just now, M37 said:

Not much, probably. It really wasn’t until March when it started to break through into public consciousness enough to impact numbers. And then it happened so fast …

 

I disagree - I think certain places had Covid break into the consciousness by then b/c they already had something crazy going around - places like the Pacific Northwest and the DC Metro...

 

I remember being at a late Feb Church dinner, and everyone was talking about it and getting nervous and curtailing travel...

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3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

As I said on the weekend, it's only hope to avoid a tragic 2nd weekend is boredom.  It's keeping huge showing sets at my local theaters (vs OW), so if you wanna watch a movie, you're almost still stuck with this one til Creed's OW...

 

 

I do wonder how much SoCal box office will be impacted by the cold wave we are set to have this weekend. Again 'cold wave' is very relative when talking about Southern California versus the rest of the US, but cold+rain is not weather anyone in SoCal wants to venture out during.

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24 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Trouble for Marvel ahead. GOTG 3 will be a hit but stuff like The Marvels? Cap 4 without Steve? Thunderbolts? None are guaranteed smashes 

 

You wonder if GOTG 3 could suffer for the sins of Ant Man 3.  I figured it was gonna post a MoM-like figure (give or take), but if people are this down on Ant Man 3...well, Justice League after BvS was a catastrophic open...

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That Wed number is so low that I have to wonder if there isn’t some weather (or Ash Wed?) effect baked in there. Or maybe it is just Quorum/review/lack of holiday effect finally catching up, finding it’s natural - and much lower - baseline level moving forward 


Capt Marvel had a 7.9x second weekend of its Wed, and that was with a +8% Thur, while MoM was 6.78x (off a -10% Thur).  Thinking ~7.5x Thur here, so if it drops further …

 

 

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30 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Trouble for Marvel ahead. GOTG 3 will be a hit but stuff like The Marvels? Cap 4 without Steve? Thunderbolts? None are guaranteed smashes 

 

X-MEN to the rescue :D

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1 minute ago, M37 said:

That Wed number is so low that I have to wonder if there isn’t some weather (or Ash Wed?) effect baked in there. Or maybe it is just Quorum/review/lack of holiday effect finally catching up, finding it’s natural - and much lower - baseline level moving forward 


Capt Marvel had a 7.9x second weekend of its Wed, and that was with a +8% Thur, while MoM was 6.78x (off a -10% Thur).  Thinking ~7.5x Thur here, so if it drops further …

 

 

I think its dropping around 7-10% today. 

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9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I disagree - I think certain places had Covid break into the consciousness by then b/c they already had something crazy going around - places like the Pacific Northwest and the DC Metro...

 

I remember being at a late Feb Church dinner, and everyone was talking about it and getting nervous and curtailing travel...

I don’t disagree that it was out there, just not to a degree to really shift behavior in the day-to-day sense … in that even those worried about it were still gathering at a Church dinner (travel, different story). Really Italy’s degrading situation was the first real red flag, and that was very end of Feb into March 

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8 minutes ago, M37 said:

That Wed number is so low that I have to wonder if there isn’t some weather (or Ash Wed?) effect baked in there. Or maybe it is just Quorum/review/lack of holiday effect finally catching up, finding it’s natural - and much lower - baseline level moving forward 


Capt Marvel had a 7.9x second weekend of its Wed, and that was with a +8% Thur, while MoM was 6.78x (off a -10% Thur).  Thinking ~7.5x Thur here, so if it drops further …

 

 

I thought about weather as well. Alot of really nasty weather in the US right now - though, most of it is outside of the major population centers. Might be worth 100-200K though. Even accounting for that it would still be a poor number.

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8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You wonder if GOTG 3 could suffer for the sins of Ant Man 3.  I figured it was gonna post a MoM-like figure (give or take), but if people are this down on Ant Man 3...well, Justice League after BvS was a catastrophic open...

 

That's a possibility. Audiences expected better from AM and Thor since those had well liked predecessors, it's possible they could see something similar will happen with Guardians and decide to skip out.

 

I don't think it will hit Guardians too hard though since those movies are some of the most beloved films in the MCU, and they're generally standalone compared to the other films. 3 seems to continue this trend so it might be more approachable for audiences.

 

But again, you make too many bad films in a row even the good films can get affected by them. Transformers, DC, Star Wars multiple times. If Guardians gets a bad response then stuff is gonna get really bad.

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10 minutes ago, M37 said:

That Wed number is so low that I have to wonder if there isn’t some weather (or Ash Wed?) effect baked in there. Or maybe it is just Quorum/review/lack of holiday effect finally catching up, finding it’s natural - and much lower - baseline level moving forward 


Capt Marvel had a 7.9x second weekend of its Wed, and that was with a +8% Thur, while MoM was 6.78x (off a -10% Thur).  Thinking ~7.5x Thur here, so if it drops further …

 

 

I think it could be the discrepancy between fans and GA here - the hardcore fans drove up OW because of Kang, but there's only so many of them, and with the GA rejecting the film, the legs are melting down.

 

Either way, if the outlook doesn't improve soon, this 2nd weekend drop will be one for the ages lol.

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51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Easy way to build excitement for Avengers is to get folks like Hugh and Tobey back. May be even big paycheck to RDJ and/or Evans could help big time. With Multi-verse no one is really dead 🙂


I mean first of all RDJ/Evans left. They;ll get numbers returning for a big film but Marvel can’t sustain off that. They need their other characters and films succeeding.

 

43 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Trouble for Marvel ahead. GOTG 3 will be a hit but stuff like The Marvels? Cap 4 without Steve? Thunderbolts? None are guaranteed smashes 

Marvels will struggle. It’s another franchise they;ve twisted into larger story telling but this time with an anchor around Captain Marvels neck in the shape of two unpopular tv characters,

 

Cap/Thunderbolts will be interesting. If they are quality then I could see a weaker opening but with better legs. They should be more grounded/winter soldier like (I hope!) - but Cap has a lot to prove, I don’t find Evans replacement charasmatic.

 

I still think 2024 looks better than 2023 minus Guardians. It’s at least more stand alone. 

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2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I think it could be the discrepancy between fans and GA here - the hardcore fans drove up OW because of Kang, but there's only so many of them, and with the GA rejecting the film, the legs are melting down.

 

Either way, if the outlook doesn't improve soon, this 2nd weekend drop will be one for the ages lol.

I somewhat agree with this, in that my view is that both the Kang-driven fan rush and holiday helped boost the OW, and now we’re seeing it come back down to earth 

 

Just think it’s less of a GA rejection, more of a loss of potential, and it will leg out fine after the apparent crash this upcoming weekend & week, in part because of absence of alternatives. Have heard from too many people (many unprompted) that liked it, but there’s really no rush now 

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27 minutes ago, M37 said:

That Wed number is so low that I have to wonder if there isn’t some weather (or Ash Wed?) effect baked in there. Or maybe it is just Quorum/review/lack of holiday effect finally catching up, finding it’s natural - and much lower - baseline level moving forward 


Capt Marvel had a 7.9x second weekend of its Wed, and that was with a +8% Thur, while MoM was 6.78x (off a -10% Thur).  Thinking ~7.5x Thur here, so if it drops further …

 

 

 

The weather has been nasty here in the Midwest. Definitely impacted theaters here. 

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