Weekend Thread - 03/31-04/02 | #FRI - D&D $15.3M, JW4 $7.9M, HOS - $2.1M, Scream VI $1.55M, Creed III $1.4M, Shazam $1.2M &1001 $700K

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Issac Newton

[Ryan Reynolds]

that's good but budget is still too high

[thajdikt]

OS needs to outperform this weekend and legs will be crucial in relation to budget but looking aside it´s been a positive development for this movie.

[Mulder]

Decent. Thinking it'll open mid-30s, maybe get bigger and make it to low 40s. I think the budget and apparently weak OS numbers though will hurt it.

[vafrow]

The trade estimates over this weekend are going to be super conservative. Paramount is going to want to avoid any situation where expectations get too aggressive and then  actuals come in below.

 

Expect deadline to forecast low 30s and a chance at winning the weekend.

[Lestranger]

Awareness never broke 50 on Quorum and interest never broke 55. Seems like it's just not gonna take off with any general audience interest. Anything above 30m ow feels like a win given the situation. But its not making a dime in profit. 

[Krissykins]

This also feels like the most marketed film of the year so far? 
 

Trailers, TV spots, countless early screenings, Amazon deals, outdoor ad campaigns, numerous red carpet events in several different countries, TV interviews, press junkets, SXSW premiere. They must’ve spent a fortune. 
 

Should’ve been more careful with the production budget. 

[AGlitchGnome]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Should’ve been more careful with the production budget. 

Not that it's an excuse but wasn't DND stuck in production hell for a long time? is it possible the budget ballooned after being in development for like 10+ years? 

[JayPrimetown]

Considering where the expectations were for this film a month or six weeks ago, it's rebounded well.

 

I agree with others that it cost too much to make and it will be a struggle to even get close to break even. I think Paramount understood that months ago and are trying to make the best of a losing situation. 

 

Paramount made a boatload on Top Gun Maverick and can handle a couple of misfires before they need another big hit. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

Semi-off topic but does anyone know what's the best breakdown is of pro.boxoffice's long range forecast model? 

 

Obviously, the "correct" answer is for someone to come in and tell me to pay for it, (Shaun saying this) to and see behind the paywall. That would be fair enough, but want to see if I can get more.

 

Quote

"Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts."

So when something like DnD's final range going from 60-130M. That seems like a large range from relatively narrow OW range. Is it because of presales? Comps? Is the fact that it's not, not a franchise film pulling in a wide range of flops and hits based on that + genre attributes? Am I wrong and this is a normal looking range? How would you parse this beyond a screenshot?

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-covenant-and-evil-dead-rise/

[stripe]

If OW finally is around 40M, I can see DnD grossing close to 150M DOM, and that would make Paramount quite happy.

As someone already said, a month ago not many were thinking 100M was possible for DnD

[TwoMisfits]

Something with GA - Atom deals have follow on effects.  GA had 2 blockbusters for $5 PLFs this month, plus a full price horror and a super, all sequels.  The GA didn't even show up for the super, since the super did nothing to push them, and the horror did well (especially in its empty market lane), but under the 2 price-spurred sequels.

 

DnD is not a sequel with a certain level of base support, and it tried to push GA with early showings vs price reduction.  In this case, it does not seem like that plan worked that well, since the early shows seem to have only dragged committed folks in early vs spurring big GA interest.

 

I mean, GA don't go to a movie every week, especially when it's not the summer.  Something was always gonna disappoint in March.  And not being one of the Atom deal blockbusters this month pretty much set the path for what was gonna be disappointing, b/c quality was good enough for everything...and when that's the case, price can be a big mover...

 

Edit to Add: And the TMobile deals don't just help OW (although that's big) - they get a lot of folks in, and then friends want to talk movies to other friends and they get follow on full price business later.  Just like what DnD has tried with the early shows, but with about 25x fewer people from those events than a full BO week of a deal...and magnitude of WOM and viewing matters...

 

 

Edited March 31, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[vafrow]

I have no issue with Paramount spending this much on this property. We don't know if this will successfully launch a scalable franchise, but if this at all looked cheap, it would turn people off.

 

We need studios taking some swings on new, scalable franchise attempts. And putting the resources in to try and get the best possible product to start is the best way to do so.

 

 

[Maggie]

4.1!!!

 

 

 

The new Paramount and eOne movie grossed a strong $5.6 million in previews this week, including $4.1 million in Thursday evening shows and the rest from special screenings earlier in the week.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/dungeons-dragons-honor-thieves-box-office-previews-1235364373/

Edited March 31, 2023 by Maggie

[Borobudur]

$5.6m preview for DnD

[BadOlCatSylvester]

 

[Maggie]

Pretty good, i say. Could have been way worse. Let's go 40M OW

[MightyDargon]

Y'know, if the film DOES breakeven and has extremely good WOM it could be valuable to Paramount anyway. Any well regarded film is a streaming asset that's likely to be valuable for some time.

[Borobudur]

6 minutes ago, Maggie said:

4.1!!!

 

 

 

The new Paramount and eOne movie grossed a strong $5.6 million in previews this week, including $4.1 million in Thursday evening shows and the rest from special screenings earlier in the week.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/dungeons-dragons-honor-thieves-box-office-previews-1235364373/

Surprised by high preview number but low EA number. 

[kayumanggi]

Some comps.