Weekend Thread - 03/31-04/02 | #FRI - D&D $15.3M, JW4 $7.9M, HOS - $2.1M, Scream VI $1.55M, Creed III $1.4M, Shazam $1.2M &1001 $700K

[TMP]

Hoping dnd has good legs. Really feels like the kind of old school blockbuster that legs it out

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Also, John Wick is now an established franchise with quite a big fanbase, which results in frontloading.

 

This right here is so much of it.

 

Nothing to grieve...it just straight-up blew through a lot of its audience in the first weekend.

 

Didn't help that it is a spoiler affected film. A huge element behind Top Gun Maverick, Puss and Avatar being legs juggernauts are that they're all completely spoiler proof.

 

Wick plotted itself out of being spoiler proof and made itself very spoiler dependent.

[Legion Again]

I mean, the OW audience wasn’t much bigger than parabellum and the WoM is better. Where it will mostly be hurt is not having the summer weekdays. Still I would guess like 190-210, solid legs.    
 

Shazam will break 60 but not by much. Could be a hot race between it and QM legs… in the 2.0-2.05 zone 💀

[MovieMan89]

I feel like we’re at a point where the influence RT can have on box office is stronger than ever before, unless we’re talking a true event film that people are going to be there for on OW no matter what.

 

But the correlation between rotten movies way underperforming and fresh ones breaking out this year has been pretty insane. I honestly think DND would have done MAYBE 15m for the whole weekend with rotten reviews. 

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Though that doesnt surprise me either, personally. DnD fans - including myself - have ridiculed this movie ever since it has been announced and i believe for most it will take really good WOM for them to go see it. I will only see it because i followed this films reception and want to give it a chance, but among the 20 persons i know that play DnD, im the only one who is willing to see it. I imagine the same applys to many DnD groups/players.

 

 

I think DnD the movie is a bit of a throwback to the 90's action comedy formula. Maybe that's the reason it didn't connect with gen Z.

[Shawn Robbins]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I agree - with the under 25 weakness, I don't see them pulling out $40M, either...

They're banking on the family turnout, which I could see... it just goes against the usual studio cautiousness. Would be great if they are right, though. Basically requires similar post-preview holds as Shazam. Hard to tell how doable that is with staggered spring break schedules, but we shall see.

[Flopped]

5 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

Also, John Wick is now an established franchise with quite a big fanbase, which results in frontloading.

 

It's also the kind of movie that no matter how great, some people will just not go see. 

 

Off topic but this is kind of hilarious 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Flopped said:

 

It's also the kind of movie that no matter how great, some people will just not go see. 

 

Off topic but this is kind of hilarious 

 

 

 

And by the DnD Friday demo, JW3 also got almost the same audience draw as D&D...skewing very 25+ male heavy...

Edited April 1, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Eric is Anxious]

Fun little detail. With John Wick 4 crossing 100M, Keanu Reeves now has at least 1 film per decade that has grossed over 100M since the 80s.

[PlatnumRoyce]

6 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

I mean, the trailers were indeed very off-putting to a lot of people. I give props to Paramount for their late push with the early review embargo and early screenings. But people did not like the trailers very much. Have seen countless comments everywhere saying "It's good?? I thought the trailers looked like garbage" etc

To be fair, the marketing team's problem was the underlying content is "generic big budget fantasy-adventure film" (albeit one leaning more into a heist/action-comedy tone) It just so happens that this D&D film was a good version of that film. I don't think there's one quick trick to prevent that sort of comment. 
 

[PlatnumRoyce]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I feel like we’re at a point where the influence RT can have on box office is stronger than ever before, unless we’re talking a true event film that people are going to be there for on OW no matter what.

 

But the correlation between rotten movies way underperforming and fresh ones breaking out this year has been pretty insane. I honestly think DND would have done MAYBE 15m for the whole weekend with rotten reviews. 

might be worth re-running this mostly pre-pandemic analysis that argued for story of declining influence. I agree that's how it seems but it would be good to see what a broader look at data says.

https://www.theringer.com/movies/2020/9/4/21422568/rotten-tomatoes-effective-on-box-office

Edited April 1, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[CoolioD1]

38 minutes ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

Fun little detail. With John Wick 4 crossing 100M, Keanu Reeves now has at least 1 film per decade that has grossed over 100M since the 80s.

Yes I was just thinking this the other day. I believe the only other ones to pull that off so far are toms cruise and hanks and willem dafoe. harrison ford will best them when Indy 5 comes out with $100mil grossers every decade going back to the 70s and i don't even think there's another actor who's eligible to match that.

 

Edit: Michael Douglas since the 80s as well. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by CoolioD1

[MightyDargon]

37 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

might be worth re-running this mostly pre-pandemic analysis that argued for story of declining influence. I agree that's how it seems but it would be good to see what a broader look at data says.

https://www.theringer.com/movies/2020/9/4/21422568/rotten-tomatoes-effective-on-box-office

That article is awful and seems almost entirely based on pre-COVID stuff. The only Rotten I can think of that really broke out post COVID was Dominion. Other stuff either "disappointed" or flat out bombed if it got a Rotten. 

I would argue that Rotten didn't matter that much back in the early 2010s when Bayformers could regularly do well with 40% RT scores, but it's VERY dicey now that streaming is in effect and people can get easy access to high quality with little effort.

[Eric is Anxious]

19 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Yes I was just thinking this the other day. I believe the only other ones to pull that off so far are toms cruise and hanks and willem dafoe. harrison ford will best them when Indy 5 comes out with $100mil grossers every decade going back to the 70s and i don't even think there's another actor who's eligible to match that.

 

Edit: Michael Douglas since the 80s as well. 

Stallone will be from the 70s to now when Guardians 3 comes out.

[CoolioD1]

3 minutes ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

Stallone will be from the 70s to now when Guardians 3 comes out.

oh if we're just talking domestic he didn't get one in the 90s.

[Eric is Anxious]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

oh if we're just talking domestic he didn't get one in the 90s.

Well here I was thinking Cliffhanger made 100M the whole time. That's a touch surprising.

[WorkingonaName]

As a 18 year old I only know This shit from stranger things.

[Porthos]

 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Porthos

[grey ghost]

6 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

Yes I was just thinking this the other day. I believe the only other ones to pull that off so far are toms cruise and hanks and willem dafoe. harrison ford will best them when Indy 5 comes out with $100mil grossers every decade going back to the 70s and i don't even think there's another actor who's eligible to match that.

 

Edit: Michael Douglas since the 80s as well. 

 

I think Samuel L Jackson will join the "since the 80's" club soon if he's in The Marvels.

[vafrow]

I was at the theatre yesterday (saw D&D, fun movie) and among the movie posters up was one for Polite Society. I'm in a smaller theater (8 screen), that rarely gets anything unless it's on a wide release. We never got EEAAO last year for example.

 

How wide is this being planned? I'd love it if it comes to our theatre. I assumed it would top out at 500-1000 screens. I'd for it to go wide.