2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Brainbug]

Just now, ddddeeee said:

This all sounds plausible enough.

 

I think audiences saw GvK, had fun, and then forgot about it. I don't think it left much of an impression. Certainly not enough of an impression to entice them to want to see a sequel that -seemingly- doesn't have anything new to offer. 

 

Again, I hope I'm wrong.

 

I mean who's to say youre wrong?

 

Dont forget, im a hopelessly hopefull fanboy of anything Godzilla-related, so yeah, i cant even fathom arguing against this movies success (though i try to analyse it as realistically as my brain/heart allows me to).

 

But Theaters will certainly hope that GxK doesnt fail. Because if it does - well then April is as fucked as January and February next year.

[WittyUsername]

Speaking of novelty, that’s precisely why I’m not sure I buy that Joker 2 will be a billion dollar hit like the first one. The first one had an undeniable novelty factor to it, and came out at the tail end of the absolute peak of the CBM genre. I can’t picture it being able to recapture that lightning in a bottle now. 
 

Then again, perhaps the team behind Joker 2 is aware of that if they’re making the next one a musical. I don’t know if that’ll really help though. It might draw in an audience that may not have cared for the first one, but couldn’t it just as easily alienate people who loved the first one? 

[Flip]

47 minutes ago, ddddeeee said:

What exactly is the hook for GxK? Here's Godzilla and Kong on screen together...again?

 

I like all the Monsterverse movies to varying degrees, but I don't see why this would do particularly well. GvK's gross was deflated for sure, but that was the event. Freddy Vs Jason was huge and they never even bothered with another one because they knew the drop off would be huge (and neither of those franchises were ever sequel shy). When they were toying with another one, they were trying to find other another franchise to mix with it. AvP Requiem...well....

 

I will go see it and I hope I'm wrong, but I think the novelty is gone. 

I think the fact that it’s a big brash action movie and has all of April to itself should be enough

[MovieMan89]

49 minutes ago, ddddeeee said:

What exactly is the hook for GxK? Here's Godzilla and Kong on screen together...again?

 

I like all the Monsterverse movies to varying degrees, but I don't see why this would do particularly well. GvK's gross was deflated for sure, but that was the event. Freddy Vs Jason was huge and they never even bothered with another one because they knew the drop off would be huge (and neither of those franchises were ever sequel shy). When they were toying with another one, they were trying to find other another franchise to mix with it. AvP Requiem...well....

 

I will go see it and I hope I'm wrong, but I think the novelty is gone. 

The hook is Zilla is on a roll rn thanks to Toho and Monarch (and no thanks at all to the Legendary films). But the newfound popularity should translate if the movie is actually decent. 

[NoobSaibot]

1 hour ago, ddddeeee said:

What exactly is the hook for GxK? Here's Godzilla and Kong on screen together...again?

 

I like all the Monsterverse movies to varying degrees, but I don't see why this would do particularly well. GvK's gross was deflated for sure, but that was the event. Freddy Vs Jason was huge and they never even bothered with another one because they knew the drop off would be huge (and neither of those franchises were ever sequel shy). When they were toying with another one, they were trying to find other another franchise to mix with it. AvP Requiem...well....

 

I will go see it and I hope I'm wrong, but I think the novelty is gone. 

 

Big dinosaur joins big monkey in battle.

 

In all fairness I anticipate that even with an empty April, this movie stands a good chance of tanking at the box office. Depends on the good will of audiences and whether or not they can differentiate between a Godzilla vs Kong film, and a movie where they're teaming up for once. I try to have high hopes, but even with the trailer out I anticipate there will be audiences who go "Wait, didn't they already do this?"

 

We'll see. We just entered winter in the US, but Spring will be here before we know it.

Edited December 31, 2023 by NoobSaibot

[Flip]

Went through most of next year and it's not looking good, here's my top 40:

 

1. Inside Out 2 ($515M)

2. Deadpool 3 ($425M)

3. Despicable Me 4 ($305M)

4. Joker: Folie a Deux ($300M)

5. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ($295M)

6. Gladiator 2 ($285M)

7. Dune 2 ($245M)

8. Venom 3 ($220M)

9. Beetlejuice 2 ($215M)

10. Godzilla X Kong: New Empire ($200M)

11. Mufasa: The Lion King ($186M)

12. Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim ($175M)

13. The Garfield Movie ($160M)

14. Kung Fu Panda 4 ($147M)

15. Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 ($146M) 

16. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($145M)

17. Furiosa ($138M)

18. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($134M) 

19. A Quiet Place: Day One ($130M)

20. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 2 ($128M)

21. Wicked Part 1 ($125M)

22. Bad Boys 4 ($125M)

23. The Fall Guy ($118M)

24. Twisters ($106M)

25. Transformers One ($100M)

26. Mean Girls ($95M) 

27. Alien: Romulus ($92M)

28. Untitled Karate Kid Movie ($87M)

29. Ballerina ($85M)

30. IF ($85M)

31. Borderlands ($80M) 

31. Bob Marley: One Love ($65M)

32. Mickey 17 ($60M)

33. Civil War ($58M) 

34. Argylle ($57M)

35. Kraven the Hunter ($55M)

36. Untitled M. Night Shymalan ($54M)

37. Challengers ($50M)

38. It Ends with Us ($49M)

39. Madame Web ($48M)

40. Trap ($46M)

 

After that it becomes a crapshoot, there's definitely going to be films that make it into the top 40 or even 30 that aren't on this list.

 

 

40.

 

[MovieMan89]

LOTRs anime background sounds fascinating and like it could be exactly what the franchise needs. I would love to see it become a Spiderverse where everyone is blown away by the style and fans really rally after a ho-hum OW. 

[emoviefan]

I keep wanting to make predictions but it is so hard in this current theatrical marketplace. Like take a movie like The Fall Guy what is the best case result if everything goes right. The marketing connects, the reviews are good, and the WOM is good . With the kickoff to summer release date and not much competition in the following weeks.The thing is it's Dec 30 not April 30th. 150-250 but it could be higher could be lower. Heck with the CBM genre imploding maybe people are ready for a old school star driven action comedy to blow up or there is a ceiling to this type of movie and the lower end is more likely. 

[abracadabra1998]

11 hours ago, emoviefan said:

I keep wanting to make predictions but it is so hard in this current theatrical marketplace. Like take a movie like The Fall Guy what is the best case result if everything goes right. The marketing connects, the reviews are good, and the WOM is good . With the kickoff to summer release date and not much competition in the following weeks.The thing is it's Dec 30 not April 30th. 150-250 but it could be higher could be lower. Heck with the CBM genre imploding maybe people are ready for a old school star driven action comedy to blow up or there is a ceiling to this type of movie and the lower end is more likely. 

 

Rooting so hard for that movie, just like I did with Bullet Train. Need these original star-driven action movies to come back!!

[YM!]

Domestic 100m+ grossers:

 

1. Joker: Folie a Deux: 130m/400m

2. Inside Out 2: 125m/385m

3. Despicable Me 4: 100m/370m

4. Deadpool 3: 150m/365m

5. Beetlejuice 2: 130m/315m

6. Wicked Part One: 100m/305m
7. Gladiator 2: 95m/300m

8. Sonic 3: 65m/270m

9. Dune 2: 80m/245m
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga: 70m/220m

11. Twisters: 70m/200m
12. Venom 3: 70m/195m

13. Mufasa: 45m/190m
14. Garfield: 50m/185m

15. Bad Boys 4: 60m/180m

16. Karate Kid: 35m/175m

17. Kung Fu Panda 4: 50m/175m

18. Godzilla x Kong: A New Empire: 65m/160m

19. The Fall Guy: 55m/140m

20. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: 45m/130m

21. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: 45m/125m

22. Transformers One: 35m/120m

23. Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim: 25m/125m 

24. Mean Girls: 30m/100m

25. Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 25m/100m

 

[Cmasterclay]

Assuming no big twists like Zootopia 2 or Spiderverse or the MJ biopic (gonna be massive folks)

 

1. Inside Out 2 - 140/430

2. Deadpool 2 - 165/405

3. Beetlejuice 2 - 116/320

4. Despicable Me 2 - 100/310

5. Joker 2 - 95/250

6. Mufasa - 60/220

7. Gladiator 2 - 80/210

8. Karate Kid - 50/200

9. Dune 2 - 75/200

10. Sonic 3 - 50/185 (side question -why are people predicting this to be so big? I feel like the last one was the peak in terms of introducing big characters etc)

11. Wicked - 175m total

12. Kung Fu Panda 2 - 55/170

13. Twisters - 60/165

14. Transformers One - 55/155

15. Furiosa - 50/150

Honestly not a terrible year at the top, it's the dire Jan/Feb and the lack of a Barbie/Mario style hit that will cut off the box office total. It's possibly stronger than this year in terms of 100-300m type hits, though.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[misterpepp]

12 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

13. Sonic 3 - 50/165 (side question -why are people predicting this to be so big? I feel like the last one was the peak in terms of introducing big characters etc)

 

Shadow is an exceptionally popular character in that franchise, rivals the ones that were introduced in 2. I recall lots of clips of audiences going crazy during the last movie's credits scene with him. It also helps that there's solid goodwill from two well-received previous entries and seemingly a video game movie boom going on.

 

That being said, I'm not expecting a huge increase from the last one. I don't exactly see it coming close to $300m domestic, but I can definitely see it passing both of the previous installments and the $200m mark.

Edited December 31, 2023 by misterpepp

[emoviefan]

Can't wait to see the Fall Guy be that movie that everybody is  shocked about well it does. Once again not saying 100+ opening or 300+total but 50-70 + opening 180-250+ total provided movie delivers and  at least 3 weeks with no real competition. 

[Flip]

32 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Can't wait to see the Fall Guy be that movie that everybody is  shocked about well it does. Once again not saying 100+ opening or 300+total but 50-70 + opening 180-250+ total provided movie delivers and  at least 3 weeks with no real competition. 

I’m thinking 45/155

[emoviefan]

6 minutes ago, Flip said:

I’m thinking 45/155

Will see. Like I said this movie has the potential to be a movie that surprises you and other  people just because you and they  think there is a ceiling to how well it can do. You could be right.

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

13. Sonic 3 - 50/165 (side question -why are people predicting this to be so big? I feel like the last one was the peak in terms of introducing big characters etc)

Shadow is a far bigger character than Knuckles ever was.

[Flip]

50/165 is also kind of crazy since that would mean almost the same legs that TROS had in the same release date in 2019

[Cmasterclay]

28 minutes ago, Flip said:

50/165 is also kind of crazy since that would mean almost the same legs that TROS had in the same release date in 2019

Yeah I didn't account for holidays, I bumped it to 185.

[Warmaster506]

Busy March for WB.  Should be some civil discussions around that time. 

[MovieMan89]

On 12/31/2023 at 12:04 PM, emoviefan said:

Can't wait to see the Fall Guy be that movie that everybody is  shocked about well it does. Once again not saying 100+ opening or 300+total but 50-70 + opening 180-250+ total provided movie delivers and  at least 3 weeks with no real competition. 

It should do well. People just adore Gosling at this point, he is very much the new Leo and the closest we have to true box office draw power actor in 2024 imo. But yeah, the ceiling is still kinda capped for such a movie, so I expect no more than 225 or so at best.