2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[emoviefan]

17 minutes ago, YM! said:

Think Kung Fu Panda should do it if it stays there.

Yeah can see there should be a trailer this week to go in front of Trolls if not then it is probably moving.

[YM!]

1. Inside Out 2 - 130m/390m

2. Deadpool and Wolverine - 150m/390m

3. Despicable Me 4 - 115m/375m
4. Joker: Folie A Duex - 125m/375m

5. Gladiator 2 - 100m/300m

6. Wicked Part One - 90m/285m

7. Kung Fu Panda 4 - 80m/270m
8. Godzilla x Kong - 100m/265m

9. Venom 3 - 85m/220m

10. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 75m/200m
 

(If WDAS 2024 is Zootopia 2 - 150m five day/400m)

[Liiviig 1998]

Updated domestic

 

IO2 - 130m/485m.

Deadpool 3 - 165m/420m.

DM4.            -120m/375m

Joker.          - 135m/375m

Passion of Christ 2 - 80m/300m

Wicked part 1.        -75m/300m

Gladiator 2.             -85m/275m

Garfield.                   - 60m/260m

Mufasa.                  -85m/250m

Dune 2.                    -75m/235m

KP4.                         -65m/225m

GVK.                        - 80m/225m

KOTPOFP.               - 70m/205m

 

If Zootopia 2 is to release in 2024 - 450m.

 

2024 should be a good bounce back year for animation atleast.

 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Garfield.                   - 60m/260m

That’s kind of high for Garfield don’t you think?

[Liiviig 1998]

22 minutes ago, YM! said:

That’s kind of high for Garfield don’t you think?

Expect to do really well with kids.

Chris Pratt factor. 

 

Lego movie type of box-office for this. Way more Dom heavy than OS.

 

Yeah it's bold but just got a good feeling about this.

 

[Safeno Rdz]

On 11/11/2023 at 11:37 PM, Liiviig 1998 said:

Expect to do really well with kids.

Chris Pratt factor. 

 

Lego movie type of box-office for this. Way more Dom heavy than OS.

 

Yeah it's bold but just got a good feeling about this.

 

Garfield is a kind of a dark horse, It could ride the Mario & Barbie success wave, but those were brands that hadn't had a big film, unlike Garfield which has had quite a few. 

[MovieMan89]

Full disclosure that this is the most “I don’t know, let’s wait and see” I have been on a top ten year prediction in a very long time:

 

1. Joker 2 - 350/1.15b

2. Inside Out 2 - 325/915

3. Beetlejuice 2 - 400/900

4. Despicable Me 4 - 265/825

5. Deadpool 3 - 275/750

6. Passion 2 - 275/725 

7. Wicked pt 1 - 225/725

8. Gladiator 2 - 190/675

9. Godzilla x Kong - 150/600

10. Borderlands or Sonic 3 - 240/550, 200/550

 

Ick at all the sequels. Lots of crapshoot predictions right now too that could drastically change with marketing. Have a great feeling about Beetlejuice DOM though and Borderlands continuing the video game breakouts at least DOM. 

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Full disclosure that this is the most “I don’t know, let’s wait and see” I have been on a top ten year prediction in a very long time:

 

1. Joker 2 - 350/1.15b

2. Inside Out 2 - 325/915

3. Beetlejuice 2 - 400/900

4. Despicable Me 4 - 265/825

5. Deadpool 3 - 275/750

6. Passion 2 - 275/725 

7. Wicked pt 1 - 225/725

8. Gladiator 2 - 190/675

9. Godzilla x Kong - 150/600

10. Borderlands or Sonic 3 - 240/550, 200/550ere 

 

Ick at all the sequels. Lots of crapshoot predictions right now too that could drastically change with marketing. Have a great feeling about Beetlejuice DOM though and Borderlands continuing the video game breakouts at least DOM. 

Has there been any confirmation about Passion 2 or that it has shot or about to shoot or anything IMBD has it for 25 right now... And Borderlands Eli Roth was fired or quit that movie a long time ago. That may never see the inside of a theater or if it does it's going to be a badly edited mess. That prediction would be great for Beetlejuice 2. If good DP 3 is going to be much bigger than that also. CBM fatigue will not affect it one bit.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Has there been any confirmation about Passion 2 or that it has shot or about to shoot or anything IMBD has it for 25 right now... And Borderlands Eli Roth was fired or quit that movie a long time ago. That may never see the inside of a theater or if it does it's going to be a badly edited mess. That prediction would be great for Beetlejuice 2. If good DP 3 is going to be much bigger than that also. CBM fatigue will not affect it one bit.

I honestly don’t know, I just glanced at the release schedule. 

I think Borderlands could be a similar situation to FNAF where quality might not matter. Can very much go for the same audience if they’re smart.

 

I think the LOTR animated film in December is a huge wildcard. This could be exactly what middle earth fans have been waiting for all these decades with Hobbit movies and Rings of Power both underwhelming. Animation could be an exciting and fresh foray for the franchise. Animated Hobbit is still great.

[MovieMan89]

Beetlejuice I see as a mini TGM parallel if all goes well. Actual huge Gen X nostalgia potential (one of the few IPs Hollywood has left for that imo) + Gen Z potential in the form of Ortega if they use her correctly. The way she resonated with Gen Z as Wednesday was totally crazy. 

[MattW]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/box-office-estimates-2024-2025-cut-analyst-1235667892/

Quote

Movie theater industry analyst Eric Wold cut his domestic 2024 full-year forecast from $9.6 billion to $8.6 billion and his 2025 estimate from $10.29 billion $9.92 billion.

Before the strikes I didn't think 2024 would be better than 2023, I thought at best it would come close.

 

A bit premature but 2025's schedule does look pretty good, and if it gets to the 10b neighborhood that'd be quite the feat.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Trailers I'd like to see before Godzilla: Minus One this week:

 

Cloverfield 2

Universal's April untitled classic monster movie

Godzilla X Kong

 

Godzilla X Kong being the most likely, of course.

 

I wonder where Cloverfield 2 will be put on the schedule, and if Universal's monster movie will move now thanks to GXK releasing a week beforehand. 

[MovieMan89]

18 hours ago, MattW said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/box-office-estimates-2024-2025-cut-analyst-1235667892/

Before the strikes I didn't think 2024 would be better than 2023, I thought at best it would come close.

 

A bit premature but 2025's schedule does look pretty good, and if it gets to the 10b neighborhood that'd be quite the feat.

It sucks because I almost hate to see 2024 succeed with how completely ridiculous Hollywood went on sequels. There’s next to nothing appealing for a tentpole next year that isn’t a sequel, and that’s just unacceptable. Especially when all of the big breakouts this year were not sequels save for like 2, because we actually got several appealing non-sequel big budget films. 

[Alexander]

Wicked or Beetlejuice, honestly they seem more niche than mainstream. At least OS. Gladiator, most fans are in late 40s or older so no guarantees they'll go to cinema. I think Deadpool and Joker will win DOM + OS. IO or DM should do well but those are sequels nobody really needed... Maybe IO 700-800, DM 800-900.

[poweranimals]

So what do you think will be the biggest disappointment of 2024? Looking at some of the big expectations for 2023 movies that went terribly wrong, I’m wondering what are some big movies that might face the same fate.

 

I don’t think anyone expects any of the Sony Marvel stuff to do well  except for maybe Venom 3 but I’m feeling like the bubble on that one might burst too. I have a bad feeling about Mufasa as well. With the first movie doing so well, expectations are high but the Disney brand isn’t what it used to be. Luckily it has the Christmas factor but it’s also competing with Sonic 3 and Karate Kid. Both of which could steal a lot of attention from it.

[poweranimals]

Wow. Joker 2 isn’t even on the list? No Godzilla X Kong either.

 

https://x.com/fandango/status/1735284777689731378?s=46

 

Edit: Not sure why it’s not embedding.

Edited December 15, 2023 by poweranimals

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

So what do you think will be the biggest disappointment of 2024? Looking at some of the big expectations for 2023 movies that went terribly wrong, I’m wondering what are some big movies that might face the same fate.

 

I don’t think anyone expects any of the Sony Marvel stuff to do well  except for maybe Venom 3 but I’m feeling like the bubble on that one might burst too. I have a bad feeling about Mufasa as well. With the first movie doing so well, expectations are high but the Disney brand isn’t what it used to be. Luckily it has the Christmas factor but it’s also competing with Sonic 3 and Karate Kid. Both of which could steal a lot of attention from it.

Apes. Not sure why, but I have a feeling.

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

So what do you think will be the biggest disappointment of 2024? Looking at some of the big expectations for 2023 movies that went terribly wrong, I’m wondering what are some big movies that might face the same fate.

 

I don’t think anyone expects any of the Sony Marvel stuff to do well  except for maybe Venom 3 but I’m feeling like the bubble on that one might burst too. I have a bad feeling about Mufasa as well. With the first movie doing so well, expectations are high but the Disney brand isn’t what it used to be. Luckily it has the Christmas factor but it’s also competing with Sonic 3 and Karate Kid. Both of which could steal a lot of attention from it.

Well given everything is a sequel, nearly everything has flop potential imo. We saw this year how tired audiences are of endless and uninspired sequels. Any of these 2s and 3s and 4s that don’t get great reception are at risk. 
 

To better answer, I could see it being DP3. If the reception is either messy or that it doesn’t do enough new and exciting things, it’s gonna drop like a rock. No CBM is safe now and I think DP3 is most at risk for a huge underperformance if they can’t pull it off, and it’s a hard one to pull off in line with the expectations and state of Marvel. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

So what do you think will be the biggest disappointment of 2024? Looking at some of the big expectations for 2023 movies that went terribly wrong, I’m wondering what are some big movies that might face the same fate.

 

I don’t think anyone expects any of the Sony Marvel stuff to do well  except for maybe Venom 3 but I’m feeling like the bubble on that one might burst too. I have a bad feeling about Mufasa as well. With the first movie doing so well, expectations are high but the Disney brand isn’t what it used to be. Luckily it has the Christmas factor but it’s also competing with Sonic 3 and Karate Kid. Both of which could steal a lot of attention from it.

 

Personally, i dont have high hopes for Mufasa or Joker 2. Lion King 2019 was a true abomination and it may have made a shitton of money, but i dont see close to the same amount of people coming back for this one, especially since its a prequel as well. I dont think it will bomb, but i see it more in the 600M WW range than anywhere near 1B.

 

Joker as well, i dont think it will have the same hype and momentum as the 2019 film. 250M DOM / 650M WW id say for now for it.

 

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

Wow. Joker 2 isn’t even on the list? No Godzilla X Kong either.

 

https://x.com/fandango/status/1735284777689731378?s=46

 

Edit: Not sure why it’s not embedding.

 

This has been discussed in other threads as well, but these Fandango polls dont mean much, if anything.

[MovieMan89]

Joker has the best setup for anything next year. It’s not really a CBM so it slides right past the genre collapse, and more importantly it seems fresh and interesting for a sequel. If Gaga got ASIB tons of attention, she has potential to bring way more attention to a role such as this.
 

It only flops if it’s not well received. If they pull off weird ass psychological musical thriller with unhinged Gaga performance and interesting songs though, it’s massive.