2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[MovieMan89]

Everything will have to go perfect for 1b for DP3, so it sure shouldn’t be seen as a disappointment to miss. 

[filmlover]

 

[Maggie]

Any potential breakout like Barbie?

[AN9815]

28 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Any potential breakout like Barbie?

Not like Barbie (+$600M DOM / $1.4b WW) but I think Inside Out 2, Gladiator 2 or Deadpool 3 could be pretty big if things go well. Despicable Me 4 will do great as well. 

 

By going well I mean great trailers, reviews, advertisement...

Edited December 19, 2023 by AN9815

[titanic2187]

I was laughing so hard seeing my 2023 prediction during early of 2023. That is before I fully grasp just how bad the superhero fatigue and China rejection of Hollywood.

 

1. Aquaman 2 : $1bn

2. MI7: $875m

3. GOTG3: $850m

4. The Flash: $850m

5. Fast X: $750m

6. Antman 3: $725m

7. Dial of Destiny: $710m

8. Spiderman ATSV: $700m

9. The Marvels: $600m

10. Dune 2: $600m

11. Elemental: $550m

12. Mario: $540m

13. Transformer ROTB: $530m

14. Barbie: $525m

15. JW4: $500m

16. Oppenheimer: $500m

17. Shazam 2: $480m

18. The Little Mermaid: $470m

19. Hunger Games Prequel: $450m

20. Megs 2: $400m

 

In general, I was way too confident with the market recovery. Only three movies came substantially above my expectation.  Funny enough, I didn't even bother predict Wonka but that movie is looking for some 600m+ WW.

 

 

[Flip]

4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I was laughing so hard seeing my 2023 prediction during early of 2023. That is before I fully grasp just how bad the superhero fatigue and China rejection of Hollywood.

 

1. Aquaman 2 : $1bn

2. MI7: $875m

3. GOTG3: $850m

4. The Flash: $850m

5. Fast X: $750m

6. Antman 3: $725m

7. Dial of Destiny: $710m

8. Spiderman ATSV: $700m

9. The Marvels: $600m

10. Dune 2: $600m

11. Elemental: $550m

12. Mario: $540m

13. Transformer ROTB: $530m

14. Barbie: $525m

15. JW4: $500m

16. Oppenheimer: $500m

17. Shazam 2: $480m

18. The Little Mermaid: $470m

19. Hunger Games Prequel: $450m

20. Megs 2: $400m

 

In general, I was way too confident with the market recovery. Only three movies came substantially above my expectation.  Funny enough, I didn't even bother predict Wonka but that movie is looking for some 600m+ WW.

 

 

I feel like mine was worse:

 

Top 10 Worldwide: 

1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($1.445B w/China and $955B w/o China) 

2. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning ($1.04B assuming China release) 

3. Indiana Jones 5 ($1B) 

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($900M) 

5. Fast X ($855M) 

6. The Little Mermaid ($759M) 

7. The Flash ($728M) 

8. Meg 2: The Trench ($712M w/ China) 

9. Super Mario Bros ($698M)

10. The Marvels ($664M)

 

only decent prediction was GOTG3 and maybe Fast X

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, Flip said:

I feel like mine was worse:

 

Top 10 Worldwide: 

1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($1.445B w/China and $955B w/o China) 

2. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning ($1.04B assuming China release) 

3. Indiana Jones 5 ($1B) 

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($900M) 

5. Fast X ($855M) 

6. The Little Mermaid ($759M) 

7. The Flash ($728M) 

8. Meg 2: The Trench ($712M w/ China) 

9. Super Mario Bros ($698M)

10. The Marvels ($664M)

 

only decent prediction was GOTG3 and maybe Fast X

I wonder how many people had Mario, Barbie, Oppenheimer and now possibly Wonka in their top 5 of the year.

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

I wonder how many people had Mario, Barbie, Oppenheimer and now possibly Wonka in their top 5 of the year.

I had Mario...but Barbie and Oppenheimer came out of nowhere...

[Flip]

Yeah, people expected Mario to be a success, but not to the level it ended up being. I remember a large point of contention was about whether it could pass 1 billion. 

[Relevation]

22 minutes ago, Flip said:

I feel like mine was worse:

 

Top 10 Worldwide: 

1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($1.445B w/China and $955B w/o China) 

2. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning ($1.04B assuming China release) 

3. Indiana Jones 5 ($1B) 

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($900M) 

5. Fast X ($855M) 

6. The Little Mermaid ($759M) 

7. The Flash ($728M) 

8. Meg 2: The Trench ($712M w/ China) 

9. Super Mario Bros ($698M)

10. The Marvels ($664M)

 

only decent prediction was GOTG3 and maybe Fast X

My DOM top 15 was

 

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie - $502M
2. The Little Mermaid - $461M
3. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning (Part One) - $444M
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $416M
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $287M
6. Wish - $267M
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $255M
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $246M
9. Dune: Part Two - $243M
10. The Marvels - $236M
11. Elemental - $220M
12. Oppenheimer - $209M
13. Fast X - $206M
14. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $202M
15. John Wick: Chapter 4 - $200M

 

Was bang on with Mario, Quantumania, and Wick 4

But TLM, MI7, The Marvels, and Aquaman 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Flip said:

Yeah, people expected Mario to be a success, but not to the level it ended up being. I remember a large point of contention was about whether it could pass 1 billion. 

I got into too many arguments about how “crazy” my 500+/1b+ DOM/WW predicts were pre tracking, so I know for a fact the majority were not high on it for awhile at least. I seem to recall a whole slew of Sonic predictions for its run, to the point I was exhausted listing the reasons why that was far too low.
 

That said, still way easier than when I was predicting that high for Barbie, where there were quite literally several low 100s predicts floating pre-tracking.

Edited December 19, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Bob Train]

I had always thought Mario would make $1.2-$1.4b WW...

[MovieMan89]

21 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I had always thought Mario would make $1.2-$1.4b WW...

Yes not everyone, just majority thought way lower. I actually think 2023 was probably the worst predicted year ever here by the majority since few were acknowledging all the breakout possibilities and collapse of CBMs. 

[Scubasteve716]

Beetle Juice is going to make a bunch of money in September and then make a shit ton of money on PVOD in October. Idk why people are so sure it’s going to get pushed back and shorten / eliminate its PVOD-Halloween window. 

[Speedorito]

22 minutes ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Beetle Juice is going to make a bunch of money in September and then make a shit ton of money on PVOD in October. Idk why people are so sure it’s going to get pushed back and shorten / eliminate its PVOD-Halloween window. 

I could see Beetlejuice being a moderate breakout if the stars align.

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Beetle Juice is going to make a bunch of money in September and then make a shit ton of money on PVOD in October. Idk why people are so sure it’s going to get pushed back and shorten / eliminate its PVOD-Halloween window. 

What??? That would be beyond stupid if its well received. It can be the biggest theatrical breakout of the year, you don’t screw with that unicorn post Covid. The current date is perfect precisely because it allows it to be huge through October if it’s well liked, giving us a leggy juggernaut like TGM and Barbie. 

Edited December 20, 2023 by MovieMan89

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, Speedorito said:

I could see Beetlejuice being a moderate breakout if the stars align.

It's going to be more than a moderate breakout. Way more.

[Scubasteve716]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

What??? That would be beyond stupid if its well received. It can be the biggest theatrical breakout of the year, you don’t screw with that unicorn post Covid. The current date is perfect precisely because it allows it to be huge through October if it’s well liked, giving us a leggy juggernaut like TGM and Barbie. 

99% chance it’s on PVOD October 15th, 100% chance it’s on PVOD the 22nd. Weekends would be single digit millions at that point even if it breaks out. And I expect it to do quite well. WB would be stupid to pass up on PVOD and wait until after Halloween.  

[AN9815]

These were my 2023 predictions back in January 2023:

 

1. Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom: $296m DOM - $964m WW (lol)

2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: $387m DOM - $912m WW (lmao)

3. The Little Mermaid: $342m DOM - $875m WW (Feel pretty good for DOM, did not expect OS audiences to reject it)

4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning. Part 1: $274m DOM - $860m WW (If not for Barbenheimer it would have done better)

5. Guardians of the Galaxy. Vol 3: $403m DOM - $824m WW (Very close)

6. Super Mario Bros: $328m DOM - $757m WW (I had this overperforming a bit, not the beast that it was)

7. Fast X: $148m DOM - $710m WW (Feel very proud of this one)

8. The Marvels: $264m DOM - $705m WW (no comments...)

9. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: $225m DOM - $562m WW (This would have totally reached these numbers if not for the awful reception). 

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: $232m DOM - $520m WW (Glad I was wrong on this one)

 

I was pretty bad at predicting the top grosses and surprises of the year (no Barbie or Oppenheiemer) although tbh I could see Barbie and Oppenheimer breaking out as the release date approached, just not in January. Moreover, I did not expect reviews or the superhero fatigue to absolutely kill some movies (Ant-Man, The Marvels, Aquaman). So taking this into account, my very early 2024 predictions: (some of these depend entirely on great reviews)

 

1. Inside Out 2: $484m DOM - $1,094m WW

2. Deadpool 3: $420m DOM - $1,041m WW

3. Despicable Me 4: $302m DOM - $965m WW

4. Joker: Folie a Deux: $291m DOM - $882m WW

5. Gladiator 2: $347m DOM - $832m WW 

6. Mufasa: The Lion King: $252m DOM - $784m WW

7. Dune: Part Two: $305m DOM - $742m WW

8. Twisters: $244m DOM - $643m WW

9. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire: $161m DOM - $540m WW

10. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $152m DOM - $495m WW

 

Purely anecdotal but almost everyone I have talked to has seen the Inside Out 2 trailer and is planning on seeing the movie when it comes out because of the anxiety character so I think it could surprise big time. Deadpool 3, Joker and Gladiator will ride or die depending on reviews and audience scores. Mufasa got saved by moving it to Christmas, yeah I know Aquaman 2 dropped massively compared to the first one but $700-800m is still a huge drop from $1.6b and families will be more forgiving than for Aquaman. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by AN9815

[Eric the Ape]

https://deadline.com/2023/12/box-office-2024-predictions-movies-cinemas-1235682149/

 

Quote

There will be blood at the box office in 2024.

 

And not the type that comes with two studio tentpoles going at each other. Nah, as Barbenheimer showed this past year, that’s actually great for business.

 

We’re talking the red-ink kind, and it will be felt on both sides, studios and cinemas, with the latter sector experiencing a potential collapse come spring among midsized circuits due to the erratic pipeline of product.

 

While this year counted 124 wide theatrical releases (opening in 1,000-plus theaters), the dual WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes forced a bulk of tentpole delays that are leaving 2024 with only 107 wide titles. Craters abound on the release schedule, with six weekends currently sans wide entries: January 26, March 15, May 31, October 11, December 6 and December 27. The domestic box office this year, after being +21% over 2022 with a near $9 billion, is expected to shed at least $1 billion in 2024 to $8 billion, -11%.

 

After exhibition and the major studios were wounded during Covid due to cinema closures between March 2020-March 2021 and features stuck in post-production during fall 2022, this year saw a return to some form of normalcy due to a conveyor belt of tentpole releases every weekend starting back in mid-February with Disney/Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106.1M opening, $214.5M domestic) and through post-Labor Day with New Line’s The Nun II. The supply of wide releases was so great in 2023 that there’s only one weekend without ’em: this upcoming New Year’s weekend.

 

An indication of the new year’s success at the box office is always determined by the spillover of the previous year’s pinnacle Christmas release; in recent years that was 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home delivering $232M to the 2022 domestic B.O, and 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water fueling this year with $283M. There’s no FOMO movie on the marquee this holiday season that will continue to rain cash next year, thanks to the the lackluster $38M+ four-day Christmas launch of Warner Bros/DC’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, coupled with a slew of titles posting high-single-digit grosses during the post-holiday midweek. Wonka‘s $8.9M was the second-lowest gross for a No. 1 movie on December 26 in the millennium after 2020’s Wonder Woman 1984 ($5.8M) — and that’s when a majority of the nation’s cinemas were shuttered due to Covid.

 

“We should be nervous about the first half of 2024,” sweats one studio exec who wanted to speak confidentially to Deadline.

 

“There’s no way that a labor stoppage as prolonged as chaotic as this wasn’t going to have consequences,” the suit explains. “Fire comes through and burns a forest and a town, and then the fire is over. But the consequences of the fire aren’t over: There’s mudslides, and there’s damaged infrastructure.”

 

“The fire is over: Now we’ve gotta rebuild the town,” they add.

 

The first four months of 2023 grossed $2.65 billion built on the backs of five movies: Super Mario Bros Movie, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, John Wick Chapter 4, Creed III and Scream VI. Touching that figure would be a miracle, especially with nothing on the calendar looking like the half-billion plus success of Super Mario Bros.

 

When it comes to Q1 2024, the stress is on Warner Bros/Legendary’s Dune: Part Two to truly deliver and fire up the year when it arrives March 1; some rival distributors believe the sequel could be a billion-dollar-grossing movie. Dune 2 is one of six titles that could clear $100M+ in the quarter, in addition to Bob Marley: One Love (on February 14), DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 4 and Angel Studios’ Cabrini on March 8, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire on March 29, and Legendary and Warner Bros’ Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire on April 12.

 

In total, exhibition sources are projecting 30 movies that could do more than a century-sized worth of business or more at the domestic box office (see that list of films below). But don’t get excited: Last year at this time we forecasted that 33 movies would click past $100M, and that number fell short by 10: Three of them moved to 2024 (Dune 2, Kraven the Hunter and Ghostbusters), while the other seven missed the mark (Haunted Mansion, Shazam: Fury of the Gods, Blue Beetle, Trolls Band Together, Wish and The Nun II). With Wonka crossing $100M today, there’s technically 22 movies that crossed the century mark stateside in 2023, not counting carryovers Avatar: The Way of Water and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.

 

However, the broken rhythm of big product next year poses further questions about when the theatrical marketplace might return to a place of strength. The consequences are profound trying to rebuild the audiences’ interest in theatrical in getting the business healthy again.

 

“The issue is: What’s happening with the audience,” says another major studio boss concerned about the collapse in superhero movies this year, exemplified by Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and early November’s The Marvels. “These are far bigger issues for me: The failures of this year and beyond, coupled with the lack of originality and the need for newness that actually works. The risk is that we’re boring the audience with the same old sh*t.”

 

Myriad stats from the National Research Group’s recent study on 2024 support studio bosses’ anxieties. NRG’s polling shows that 69% of moviegoers want more original movies. Meanwhile, 41% agree that movie franchises “are getting better,” down from 56% in February 2022. There’s also declining sentiment that franchises are a “safer choice to spend money on” and are “must-see in theaters.”

 

Despite the box office boom this year and the Barbenheimer weekend that grossed $310.9M overall, NRG found that Americans aren’t attending movies as frequently as they did pre-pandemic, off by close to a third from pre-pandemic levels. Hence, the box office is down in spite of ticket price increases. The challenge the industry faces is getting quality, theatrical product out there on a continuous basis to consistently engage the habit of moviegoing.

 

Another takeaway from the NRG study: Compared with other out-of-home activities (i.e., amusement parks, sporting events, restaurants), moviegoing ranks lowest on providing “a lot of value” for consumers’ money spent. That said, “cheaper tickets” and “cheaper concessions” are points that prospective customers cite most often as a way to get them back to theaters, a sentiment up significantly over the past two years, likely driven by inflation concerns.

Post-Covid, moviegoing continues to be challenged by the comfort of the home-viewing experience, which has improved over the past five years as high-quality tech has dropped in price, internet speeds have improved, and streaming services and shortened windows proliferate. Per NRG, around two-thirds of Americans prefer watching movies at home (64% at home vs. 36% in theater) versus 2018, when the preference of cinema viewing outpaced that of the home (57% theater vs. 43% home).