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2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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52 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It should do well. People just adore Gosling at this point, he is very much the new Leo and the closest we have to true box office draw power actor in 2024 imo. But yeah, the ceiling is still kinda capped for such a movie, so I expect no more than 225 or so at best. 

Yeah. Finally got around to watching Barbie on HBO Max last night.  It was okay. The movie was not made for me of course.  But Gosling just kills it. Just like Chris Hemsworth when you when you tap into  their stealth comedic gifts watch out.  And as long as they kept the budget reasonable for The Fall Guy 225 DOM and 400 + WW would be just fine. I think higher is possible though with that release date and no competition for a few weeks and hopeful good WOM.

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6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah. Finally got around to watching Barbie on HBO Max last night.  It was okay. The movie was not made for me of course.  But Gosling just kills it. Just like Chris Hemsworth when you when you tap into  their stealth comedic gifts watch out.  And as long as they kept the budget reasonable for The Fall Guy 225 DOM and 400 + WW would be just fine. I think higher is possible though with that release date and no competition for a few weeks and hopeful good WOM.

 Everyone I know who didn’t care for Barbie all still caveated with “but Gosling was amazing!” The man has universal appeal right now, which is increasingly rare in a modern actor. 

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On 12/29/2023 at 4:40 PM, filmlover said:

 

Really? Why so much? Given even the people involved are struggling to explain its connection to the 1996 movie in the press (if it's not a sequel and it's not a remake then it's...what to the original, exactly?) and disaster movies no longer being in fashion, it seems far more likely to pull an Independence Day: Resurgence, especially when absolutely no one from the original is returning for this.

 

What's the problem there? It's a film connected in spirit with 1996 movie. Just that. The people involved want to distance it from the source material because they think it's more than just a remake.

Regarding no original cast returning... Who cares? The real protagonists of that movie were the twisters.

 

I know my prediction is very high. Twisters BO is a wildcard, but I perceive catastrophe genre has been dormant for years and it's about to come back soon with a blast.

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DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS 2024

1. Inside Out 2 - $540M
2. Joker: Folie á Deux - $385M
3. Despicable Me 4 - $315M
4. Deadpool 3 - $305M
5. The Garfield Movie - $280M
6.  Sonic the Hedgehog 3 - $235M
7. Beetlejuice 2 - $230M
8. Kung Fu Panda 4 - $212M
9. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 2 - $200M
10. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - $166M

 

11. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 - $165M
12. Venom 3 - $161M
13. Bad Boys 4 - $150M
14. Dune: Part Two - $145M
15. The Karate Kid - $144M
16. Wicked: Part One - $140M
17. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire - $135M
18. A Quiet Place: Day One - $130M
19. Gladiator 2 - $129M
20. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga - $120M

 

21. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim - $110M
22. Mufasa: The Lion King - $108M
23. Transformers One - $105M
24. Mean Girls - $101M
25. Twisters / The Fall Guy / Smile 2 (TIE) - $100M

 

Paddington in Peru / IF (TIE) - $96M
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $87M
Cabrini - $90M
Alien: Romulus - $70M
Nosferatu - $67M
Challengers / Civil War (TIE) - $60M
Mickey 17 - $50M

 

JUST IN CASE (undated movies that could release in 2024, my predictions if they do)
The Passion of the Christ: Resurrection - $385M
Michael Jackson biopic - $345M
Zootopia 2 - $305M
The Secret Life of Pets 3 - $170M
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs and Reyes - $135M
The Apprentice - $90M
Mortal Kombat 2 - $80M
Untitled original Walt Disney Animation Studios film / Tron: Ares (TIE) - $78M
Juror #2 - $70M

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Domestic Box office Predictions for 2024

Deadpool 3 : 400m DOM ( I can potentially see this become the highest grossing R rated film DOM beating Passion of the Christ’s record of 20 years.)

Joker Folie a Deux : 380m DOM ( Ironically enough it’s being released on the exact same date as the original almost 5 years ago. I’m going wild and say that I think this will break the October record. I think this could be the first film to make 100m on its opening weekend on the month of October.) 

Inside out 2 : 360m DOM ( I think this will make similar numbers like the original, not sure if I can see a huge increase from the first.)

Madame Web : 50m DOM ( Maybe I’m highballing this one, it could probably do worse) 

Dune Part 2 : 175-180 DOM ( Honestly I don’t think it’s gonna be a huge increase from the first, it’ll make money but I just can’t see it increasing a hundred million more although I would like to be proven wrong)

Kraven the hunter : 65m DOM ( similar numbers to Morbius, maybe a bit worse) 

Sonic 3 : 205-210m DOM 

Kong X Godzilla : 150M DOM

Kung fu panda 4 : 155-160M DOM

The Fall guy : 145M DOM

Beetlejuice 2 : 190-200M DOM

 

 

 



 

 

Edited by Justin
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God Jan and Feb look terrible. I can honestly say I may not see a movie  from now until Dune 2 opens. Still hoping Argyle surprises but not holding my breath on that at this point. The marketing for that has been so strange.

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DOMESTIC

1. Joker 2 (154/419)

2. Gladiator 2 (122/374)

3. Despic4ble Me (87/154/370)

4. Inside Out 2 (102/344)

5. Garfield (79/239m)

6. Sonic 3 (59/231m)

7. Beetlejuice 2 (101/231)

8. Deadpool 3 (109/229)

9. Wicked (54/81/203)

10. Horizon: Part One (52/201)

 

WORLDWIDE

1. Joker 2 ($1.2b)

2. Gladiator 2 ($1.1b)

3. DM4 ($1b)

4. Inside Out 2 ($850m)

5. GxK ($700m)

6. Dune 2 ($650m)

7. Garfield ($600m)

8. Twisters ($550m)

9. Sonic 3 ($500m)

10. Wicked ($500m)

 

 

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The continued pessimism about DeadPool 3 around here.  Whatever.  Because Boo The MCU and CBM's right now. Like it can't go the route of ATSV or Guardians 3 instead of Quantamania or The Marvels.

Edited by emoviefan
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47 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

The continued pessimism about DeadPool 3 around here.  Whatever.  Because Boo The MCU and CBM's right now. Like it can't go the route of ATSV or Guardians 3 instead of Quantamania or The Marvels.

You know this is a shawn levy joint, right

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Deadpool 1 and 2 were made in a pre Renolds becoming a major shill world, with Deadpool 3 it seems less like a passion project like the first 1 was and more of an Adam Sandler type deal where it's just Reynolds making a movie to hang out with his friends and Marvel is desperate for it to make the GA give a shit about their multiverse plans outside of Spider-man cameo's

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8 hours ago, TMP said:

You know this is a shawn levy joint, right

I think Levy is alright journeyman. Like reservations on Free Guy and The Adam Project, those legged it out just fine. My youngest cousin watched the former so many times it became a mainstay at home lol. The former had strong legs at the box office, and tbh if it didn’t open when people were still skeptical of going to the movies, think it’d probably do around upper 100s, maybe low 200s. Like I don’t care for Jon Watts Spideys but he’s a good journeyman that the GA usually eats up.

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6 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I think I’m at the point where I’m more excited about Sonic 3 than any CBM this year. 

Praying for that Timothee as Shadow announcement. Gonna make the film blow up 🙏

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13 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I think I’m at the point where I’m more excited about Sonic 3 than any CBM this year. 

Honestly same

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34 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I think I’m at the point where I’m more excited about Sonic 3 than any CBM this year. 

I can understand that to an extent. Despite it being a comic book film, I’m more excited for Joker 2 than for any superhero movie this year (yes that even includes Deadpool 3). 

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50 minutes ago, cannastop said:

🤨

Yeah

 

- People love the first Inside Out, it’s 9 years out putting it in a good time space for a big nostalgia boost

- Pixar nostalgia direct sequels kinda have a perfect track record as of late (Toy Story 3, Finding Dory, Incredibles 2, Toy Story 4)

- The Pixar brand is still very strong theatrically (they launched an original fantasy romcom to global numbers bigger than 6/8 superhero movies last year, one dud with a whole host of unique handicaps is not emblematic of an entire brand’s strength)

- I expect it to at least get very good audience reception with its touching on mental health and anxiety likely resonating big time with audiences and crucially with Gen Z and the 18-24 demographic, a major fueler of recent young skewing breakouts (Mario, The Rise of Gru, Barbie)

- It’s in a wide open June with no other strong 4 quadrant blockbusters, and I expect it to have good legs

- The anticipation and hype is very big, it launched to the biggest 24hr trailer views for a Disney animated film ever 

 

 

So yeah, all those factors combined are why I’m pencilling in a prediction of $135M OW / $540M DOM (4x legs) / $1.175B WW and by a significant margin the biggest movie of 2024

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