Speedorito Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 hours ago, poweranimals said: So what do you think will be the biggest disappointment of 2024? I’m gonna be the bad guy and say Dune 2. The views for the newest trailer are abysmal compared to the first two, and they’ll have to rebuild the hype they lost from delaying the movie due to the strike. And I don’t think they’ll have giant drops, but I don’t think Deadpool 3, Joker 2, or Inside Out 2 will be able to match their predecessors. It feels like it’s been both too long and not long enough. On the flip side, I think Beetlejuice 2 has the chance to surprise people. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-forecast-2024-2025-movies-1235757052/ Quote If projections are right, domestic box office in 2024 could top out at $7.5 billion to $8 billion, compared to an expected $8.8 billion to $8.9 billion this year, say multiple studio executives who spoke with The Hollywood Reporter (a few are more bullish in thinking $8 billion to $8.5 billion is possible). ... All told, the global box office could lose out on $2 billion or more because of the 2024 movies that were bumped to 2025 ... “The reality is that the box office isn’t the same as it was before. There have been two seismic shocks in the past few years — first the pandemic and now the strikes. At the same time, streaming exploded,” says analyst Rich Greenfield of LightShed Ventures. .... At this juncture, no one is sure when, or if, the North American box office will return to pre-pandemic levels, or $11 billion annually. Nor is 2023 revenue likely to cross $9 billion, as originally expected ... One startling stat is the year-over-year dip in the number of wide releases — films that play on 2,000 or more screens (this includes rereleases and specialty films that platform slowly). As of Dec. 13, there were approximately 82 such wide releases on the calendar, compared to an estimated 97 to 99 in 2023... “The calendar for next year is in rough shape, and studios need to be clear-eyed,” says NRG head of film Ray Subers. Ah, so that's where Ray Subers went. Quote Box office analysts are far more bullish on the back half of 2024, led by Marvel’s untitled Deadpool threequel, which opens in July. And many believe the downturn at the animation box office could be reversed when summer pics Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 come out. Other summer releases hoping to achieve event status include The Fall Guy, If and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Year-end notable mentions include Wicked, Mufasa: The Lion King, Karate Kid and Sonic the Hedgehog 3. .... Adds Dergarabedian, “It’s pretty clear there is a correlation between volume and box office. Everyone needs to get out there and take meaningful shots to get the box office back to normal.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 I maintain Mufasa was going sub 250 WW in that original summer release. Maybe gets to 500 now with the premier Xmas slot, so Disney already made one smart move for 2024 I guess. Though 500 would still likely be a box office bomb for it, but sadly maybe not enough to discourage them from these types of ridiculous greenlights entirely like a sub 250 disaster might have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relevation Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: I maintain Mufasa was going sub 250 WW in that original summer release. Maybe gets to 500 now with the premier Xmas slot, so Disney already made one smart move for 2024 I guess. Though 500 would still likely be a box office bomb for it, but sadly maybe not enough to discourage them from these types of ridiculous greenlights entirely like a sub 250 disaster might have. How does a release slot double a movie's potential BO outside of very specific circumstances like holiday-specific movies It's not like you're changing the actual levels of interest in Mufasa, and there isn't nothing over Christmas to challenge it - Sonic 3 is opening on the same day and LOTR is pretty close by - it'll just open much lower and have a more protracted run instead of making substantially more If Mufasa was doing sub-$250M in the summer then its new date takes it to $300M in the upmost optimistic scenario Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 If Beetlejuice 2 is going to blow up I assume it will move off the Sept 6 date. Deeper into the fall closer to Halloween seems likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Brainbug said: This has been discussed in other threads as well, but these Fandango polls dont mean much, if anything. It's not a perfect science. A lot can go right or wrong, but fan anticipation goes a long way. 4 hours ago, DAJK said: Apes. Not sure why, but I have a feeling. I can see that. I didn't finish the last trilogy so I'm a little hesitant towards the new one. Edited December 16, 2023 by poweranimals 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 5 hours ago, Relevation said: How does a release slot double a movie's potential BO outside of very specific circumstances like holiday-specific movies It's not like you're changing the actual levels of interest in Mufasa, and there isn't nothing over Christmas to challenge it - Sonic 3 is opening on the same day and LOTR is pretty close by - it'll just open much lower and have a more protracted run instead of making substantially more If Mufasa was doing sub-$250M in the summer then its new date takes it to $300M in the upmost optimistic scenario A big family release at Christmas definitely adds quite a lot to the box office by default. It’s the perfect time for that sort of thing. The opening is destined to be poor, but no legs to save it in summer that are there for it now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) All of the sequels are definitely at risk if this year has taught us anything but if I had to guess which one is most immune to massive disappointment I would say Joker 2 due to the Gaga of it all (everyone will be shocked if it doesn't have the most wild press tour out of any movie in 2024)? It won't do as well as the first in all likelihood but there already seems to be plenty of buzz for it based on the chatter surrounding the set photos alone, which might be enough to overcome a half-decade gap between movies + lack of novelty. Edited December 16, 2023 by filmlover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, filmlover said: All of the sequels are definitely at risk if this year has taught us anything but if I had to guess which one is most immune to massive disappointment I would say Joker 2 due to the Gaga of it all (everyone will be shocked if it doesn't have the most wild press tour out of any movie in 2024)? It won't do as well as the first in all likelihood but there already seems to be plenty of buzz for it based on the chatter surrounding the set photos alone, which might be enough to overcome a half-decade gap between movies + lack of novelty. I still think quality and buzz will go a long way for the sequels in 24. A lot of this years sequels that bombed or underperformed got so-so reviews and buzz at best. Except for DR Part 1 which got great reviews but was killed by it's release date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 22 hours ago, poweranimals said: So what do you think will be the biggest disappointment of 2024? Looking at some of the big expectations for 2023 movies that went terribly wrong, I’m wondering what are some big movies that might face the same fate. I don’t think anyone expects any of the Sony Marvel stuff to do well except for maybe Venom 3 but I’m feeling like the bubble on that one might burst too. I have a bad feeling about Mufasa as well. With the first movie doing so well, expectations are high but the Disney brand isn’t what it used to be. Luckily it has the Christmas factor but it’s also competing with Sonic 3 and Karate Kid. Both of which could steal a lot of attention from it. Furiosa. The trailer looks really off-putting and Planet of the Apes will be sizeable competition for it + it's a prequel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Flip said: Furiosa. The trailer looks really off-putting and Planet of the Apes will be sizeable competition for it + it's a prequel The two movies will not open up on the same date. WB is already hinting strongly they plan to move Furiosa. Still don't understand the negativity people are having with the movie but whatever to each their own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warmaster506 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Dune 2 will have a big increase. 600+ is probably where it's headed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toutvabien Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 34 minutes ago, Flip said: Furiosa. The trailer looks really off-putting and Planet of the Apes will be sizeable competition for it + it's a prequel It legit has the coolest teaser trailer to come out of Hollywood in many many years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontofan Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Warmaster506 said: Dune 2 will have a big increase. 600+ is probably where it's headed. World.wide ? Yeah Domestic no Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warmaster506 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Yes worldwide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 22 hours ago, Speedorito said: I’m gonna be the bad guy and say Dune 2. The views for the newest trailer are abysmal compared to the first two, and they’ll have to rebuild the hype they lost from delaying the movie due to the strike. And I don’t think they’ll have giant drops, but I don’t think Deadpool 3, Joker 2, or Inside Out 2 will be able to match their predecessors. It feels like it’s been both too long and not long enough. On the flip side, I think Beetlejuice 2 has the chance to surprise people. Dune 2 won’t even be a disappointment to me since I think that audience is capped around the first one. And that’s if all goes well too. I know soooo many people who gave one a curiosity watch and just hated it. It makes tons of sense because it’s hardcore sci-fi, which has literally never sold at the box office. 500 WW would be a massive win and achievement for it. I expect right in line with the 400 of 1 (all the casuals not coming back should be offset a bit by more core fans seeing it in theaters vs 1). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WittyUsername Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Are people gonna see DP3 as a disappointment if it doesn’t hit a billion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, WittyUsername said: Are people gonna see DP3 as a disappointment if it doesn’t hit a billion? Nah, dont think so. The first two Deadpool movies grossed just under 800M and with the current superhero fatigue/bombage happening, matching those first two movies would already make DP3 a big success. Plus, its an R-Rated movie and theres only one R-Rated movie that ever crossed a billion (Joker, 2019). So expecting DP3 to reach such a number would be ... well, extremely optimistic lets call it that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontofan Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, WittyUsername said: Are people gonna see DP3 as a disappointment if it doesn’t hit a billion? I think a Guardian 3 run will be a big win imo 800 million WW is the benchmark or around deadpool 1 or 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, WittyUsername said: Are people gonna see DP3 as a disappointment if it doesn’t hit a billion? after all the superhero flops, no. For me though it would be a disappointment if it isn't the highest grossing of the 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
