2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[WittyUsername]

3 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

https://deadline.com/2023/12/box-office-2024-predictions-movies-cinemas-1235682149/

 

 

Dune, a billion dollar hit? I’ve been pretty optimistic about its box office prospects, but a billion? 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

6 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

Dune, a billion dollar hit? I’ve been pretty optimistic about its box office prospects, but a billion? 

Yeah same here. It would be cool to see a Dark Knight-level increase but it’s more likely to be akin to Across The Spider-Verse.

[emoviefan]

55 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Yeah same here. It would be cool to see a Dark Knight-level increase but it’s more likely to be akin to Across The Spider-Verse.

If if does half of what ATSV did DOM I would say that is pretty good. I fear some are going to put to much of a burden on it to explode and when it does 150 -200 DOM and 500+ WW are going to be really disappointed. 

[stripe]

Deadpool 3 - 375M DOM / 1b WW

Despicable Me 4 - 325M DOM / 950M WW

Twisters - 320M DOM /1b WW

Inside Out 2 - 300M DOM / 850M WW

Mufasa - 275M DOM / 900M WW

Gladiator 2 - 250M DOM / 700M WW

Joker 2 - 225M DOM / 650M WW

Dune 2 - 210M DOM / 640M WW

The Fall Guy - 190M DOM / 490M WW

Furiosa - 175M DOM / 450M WW

Venom 3 - 165M DOM / 550M WW

Godzilla x Kong - 160M DOM / 450M WW

If - 150M DOM / 420M DOM

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 145M DOM /400M WW

Bad Boys 4 - 140M DOM / 400M WW

Ghostbusters - 140M DOM / 350M WW

Beetlejuice 2 - 130M DOM / 310M WW

 

 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

Deadpool 3 - 375M DOM / 1b WW

Despicable Me 4 - 325M DOM / 950M WW

Twisters - 320M DOM /1b WW

Inside Out 2 - 300M DOM / 850M WW

Mufasa - 275M DOM / 900M WW

Gladiator 2 - 250M DOM / 700M WW

Joker 2 - 225M DOM / 650M WW

Dune 2 - 210M DOM / 640M WW

The Fall Guy - 190M DOM / 490M WW

Furiosa - 175M DOM / 450M WW

Venom 3 - 165M DOM / 550M WW

Godzilla x Kong - 160M DOM / 450M WW

If - 150M DOM / 420M DOM

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 145M DOM /400M WW

Bad Boys 4 - 140M DOM / 400M WW

Ghostbusters - 140M DOM / 350M WW

Beetlejuice 2 - 130M DOM / 310M WW

 

 

 

Really? Why so much? Given even the people involved are struggling to explain its connection to the 1996 movie in the press (if it's not a sequel and it's not a remake then it's...what to the original, exactly?) and disaster movies no longer being in fashion, it seems far more likely to pull an Independence Day: Resurgence, especially when absolutely no one from the original is returning for this.

Edited December 29, 2023 by filmlover

[Warmaster506]

Dune 1 billion would shock everyone. 

[M37]

I'm not all that great at these long range forecasts, but scrolling through some of these projections, feel compelled to offer a gentle reminder:

 

Only 1 film post-pandemic has grossed between $225M and $325M Domestic (and that is kind of an outlier for other reasons)

 

So when making these projections, have to ask: does said film have the "it factor" to jump over $300M? And if not, then its likely going sub-$200M. There's just nothing that settles into the mid-range

 

This past year, only 5 managed to make the upper echelon, after 8 did the year before. Looking at the release schedule, the only two I feel (semi) confident in making that level are DP3, DM4 and (maybe) Inside Out 2. Possible breakouts would be the second sequel brigade: Beetlejuice 2, Furiosa, Dune 2, Folie a Duex, Gladiator 2, and Twisters, where there is a base of appeal from the original, but room for interest to have grown over time, catch a pop culture wave, and vault up

 

Overall feels a bit like 2023, where 17 films crossed $150M, but this time without a Mario and Barbie coming to save the day, and grossing $1B less in aggregate

Edited December 29, 2023 by M37

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Spitballing some predictions:

- Joker 2 fails to hit half of the the first film’s WW gross due to a BVS level response from audiences.

 

- Inside Out 2 is Disney’s biggest film of the year at a WW gross of $650-700M WW

 

-Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes just hits the $500M WW gross due to great WOM.

- As I mentioned in the Eric/Han thread, it’s likely we will not have a billion dollar grosser this year but if it does it will be Despicable Me 4.

 

- One of the following belated sequels will blow past everyone’s projections and end up in the top 5, possibly top 3 WW: Twisters, Gladiator 2 or Beetlejuice 2. I’m currently leaning towards Beetlejuice, but if Twisters really leans into being a theatrical event it could do excellent.

 

- The Bikeriders will have a respectable performance, at least by specialty movies post-COVID standards, and hit 40M DOM as it ends up being a crowd pleaser that works better in the summer than the previous awards season release.

 

- Horizon: Part 2 will be a bright spot in an otherwise awful August.

 

- Wolfs, the Apple movie starring Brad Pitt and George Clooney, will be the first of the Apple movies given wide theatrical releases to double its budget in terms of box office.

Edited December 30, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[Bob Train]

-Mean Girls makes 100m+ DOM

 

-Madame Web bombs

 

-Dune 2 puts up Spider-Verse 2 numbers WW, 200m or so DOM

 

-Mickey 17 is a hit, $200m-$300m WW

 

-Frozen Empire makes Afterlife numbers

 

-Fall Guy makes Bullet Train numbers

 

-Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes makes TBOSAS numbers WW, but fails to crack 100m DOM

 

-Inside Out 2 has $130m OW, $400m+ DOM

 

-Bad Boys 4 flops

 

-The Horizon duology are massive hit, both grossing around Sound of Freedom numbers

 

-Deadpool 3 opens huge but collapsed due to WOM

 

-Beetlejuice 2 opens big but collapses due to WOM

 

-Joker 2 claims the yearly crown WW, $1.1b or so

 

-FNAF 2 will release in Q4 2024, makes similar numbers or more to the first

 

-VEN3M makes V2NOM numbers WW, but less from DOM

 

-Mufasa bombs hard, making Aquaman 2 numbers

 

-Sonic 3 grosses 200m+ DOM, 500m WW

 

-LOTR makes Smurfs: Lost Village numbers

[WorkingonaName]

1. Wicked: $1B

2. Joker 2: $1B

3. Gladiator 2: $1B if good

4. DM4: $850M

5. Inside Out 2: $850M

6. Deadpool 3: $750M

7. GXK: $700M

8. Dune 2: $700M

9. Horizon: $2: $650M

10.  Horizon: $500M

[Flip]

I feel like we will see a large amount of movies (around 15) hit somewhere in the mid 100s

[Warmaster506]

Joker or DP3 will win the year IMHO. 

[MovieMan89]

Joker should have WW on lock unless it’s hated. Nothing else next year is on that level OS. 

[NoobSaibot]

This is purely anecdotal, but I remember early responses to Joker's sequel being less than ideal because of its shift to a musical style. Not sure if a shift in tone will harm or aid it, but either way I don't think it'll hit $1 billion. I agree with AMC's notion that Despicable Me 4 has potential for $1b, as it's such a beloved franchise at this point and DM3 already achieved that milestone.

 

Other passing glances: I anticipate that Dune will have a stronger box office worldwide total since the first one was enjoyed so much, but expecting more than $550 million WW might be pushing it. Same for GxK.

Edited December 30, 2023 by NoobSaibot

[ddddeeee]

What exactly is the hook for GxK? Here's Godzilla and Kong on screen together...again?

 

I like all the Monsterverse movies to varying degrees, but I don't see why this would do particularly well. GvK's gross was deflated for sure, but that was the event. Freddy Vs Jason was huge and they never even bothered with another one because they knew the drop off would be huge (and neither of those franchises were ever sequel shy). When they were toying with another one, they were trying to find other another franchise to mix with it. AvP Requiem...well....

 

I will go see it and I hope I'm wrong, but I think the novelty is gone. 

[JustLurking]

Dune is making 1 billion. Furiosa too.

 

Then I wake up.

[Eric the Ape]

3 minutes ago, ddddeeee said:

What exactly is the hook for GxK? Here's Godzilla and Kong on screen together...again?

 

They're boyfriends now.

[ddddeeee]

6 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

They're boyfriends now.

Works for me. I hope everyone else is into it.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, ddddeeee said:

What exactly is the hook for GxK? Here's Godzilla and Kong on screen together...again?

 

I like all the Monsterverse movies to varying degrees, but I don't see why this would do particularly well. GvK's gross was deflated for sure, but that was the event. Freddy Vs Jason was huge and they never even bothered with another one because they knew the drop off would be huge (and neither of those franchises were ever sequel shy). When they were toying with another one, they were trying to find other another franchise to mix with it. AvP Requiem...well....

 

I will go see it and I hope I'm wrong, but I think the novelty is gone. 

 

I agree that the hook of seeing Godzilla and Kong together is gone, but my two main counterarguments would be

 

1) GvK gave the MonsterVerse new life and popularity. After KotM, things looked quite bleak but GvK's reception was really good among the GA and brought in a ton of new fans. Looking at the media landscape in late 2023, Kaiju movies actually were never as popular as they are right now with Legacy of Monsters and Minus One contributing to that heavily as well.

 

2) Early 2024 is a complete desert. Apart Dune 2, there really is nothing exciting or "Big" coming out until GxK releases. It could be seen as something worthwile checking out for those who crave some action/fun cinema at that point next year.

 

But imo, the main factor will be obviously the quality of the movie. Like we see with every other movie, you can have 1000 things going for or against you, if you (the movie) are shit, then its bombage time. In this case, i hope that Wingard and Co. can make this one as fun as GvK. If they manage to do that, i dont see why this one shoud fail in outgrossing it.

[ddddeeee]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I agree that the hook of seeing Godzilla and Kong together is gone, but my two main counterarguments would be

 

1) GvK gave the MonsterVerse new life and popularity. After KotM, things looked quite bleak but GvK's reception was really good among the GA and brought in a ton of new fans. Looking at the media landscape in late 2023, Kaiju movies actually were never as popular as they are right now with Legacy of Monsters and Minus One contributing to that heavily as well.

 

2) Early 2024 is a complete desert. Apart Dune 2, there really is nothing exciting or "Big" coming out until GxK releases. It could be seen as something worthwile checking out for those who crave some action/fun cinema at that point next year.

 

But imo, the main factor will be obviously the quality of the movie. Like we see with every other movie, you can have 1000 things going for or against you, if you (the movie) are shit, then its bombage time. In this case, i hope that Wingard and Co. can make this one as fun as GvK. If they manage to do that, i dont see why this one shoud fail in outgrossing it.

This all sounds plausible enough.

 

I think audiences saw GvK, had fun, and then forgot about it. I don't think it left much of an impression. Certainly not enough of an impression to entice them to want to see a sequel that -seemingly- doesn't have anything new to offer. 

 

Again, I hope I'm wrong.