Weekdays (8-11 May, 2023) Thread.

[Liiviig 1998]

21 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Something like $61M sounds about right for Guardians 3 this weekend going off of these weekdays. The drop is likely to be a massive step up from the rest of Phase 4 and 5, and I think it's also one of the best for the franchise as a whole. The Marvels being a huge wildcard is a shame, because otherwise I can see this year being a big rebound for the Marvel brand with early raves for Loki Season 2 and Secret Invasion.

For marvels it's all about reception now.

 

The true wildcards are next year discounting DP3 ofcorse.

[Dale Cooper]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Getting way OT, but I think the potential is there for Elder Scrolls 6 to be even bigger than GTA 6. Been a longer wait and Elder Scrolls fits the mold of the direction gaming has gone in more than GTA does now.

But GTA V has sold more in the past four or five years than the entire Elder Scrolls series have done in total. So if gaming has gone in one way it clearly has not affacted GTA V.

 

Anyway, great numbers for Vol 3. Should come in around Vol 2 for the second weekend.

[Krissykins]

GOTG3 does have the benefit of nothing notable opening on its second weekend. I’m also guessing it didn’t lose a single PLF on Thursday to another film having previews?
 

That will explain why it’s avoiding the 60% drops the crowded March films had. As well as the WOM. 
 

The next films to have this benefit will be Flash and Indiana Jones I think?

[charlie Jatinder]

first weekend was low, second weekend would be decent. that gives you the hold. may be it start doing good. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

20 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

GOTG3 does have the benefit of nothing notable opening on its second weekend. I’m also guessing it didn’t lose a single PLF on Thursday to another film having previews?
 

That will explain why it’s avoiding the 60% drops the crowded March films had. As well as the WOM. 
 

The next films to have this benefit will be Flash and Indiana Jones I think?

Maybe not other blockbusters but Flash has No Hard Feelings in its second weekend. I guess one could argue Indy will have to go up against Insidious and Joy Ride in its second weekend too but those aren’t as notable as Feelings methinks.

[fabiopazzo2]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Getting way OT, but I think the potential is there for Elder Scrolls 6 to be even bigger than GTA 6. Been a longer wait and Elder Scrolls fits the mold of the direction gaming has gone in more than GTA does now.
 

Big fantasy open world RPGish games like Breath of the wild, Witcher 3 and Elden Ring have seen more success than most “gritty” shooter type games in recent years. And Skyrim is arguably what set the industry on that course to start with. And that game is one literally every platform at this point, it never dies. Of course, both may literally still be a decade away, so who knows what mainstream gaming taste will be then. 

No

WAY

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

first weekend was low, second weekend would be decent. that gives you the hold. may be it start doing good. 

First wknd missing 41% of audience. 2nd weekend if it do 64M is missing perhaps 20% of audience. Caught up for wknd 3? 
 

Spoiler

That be about 42M I guess 👀

 

[BluKyberCrystal]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Getting way OT, but I think the potential is there for Elder Scrolls 6 to be even bigger than GTA 6. Been a longer wait and Elder Scrolls fits the mold of the direction gaming has gone in more than GTA does now.
 

Big fantasy open world RPGish games like Breath of the wild, Witcher 3 and Elden Ring have seen more success than most “gritty” shooter type games in recent years. And Skyrim is arguably what set the industry on that course to start with. And that game is one literally every platform at this point, it never dies. Of course, both may literally still be a decade away, so who knows what mainstream gaming taste will be then. 

There is no earthly way Elder Scrolls 6 anywhere near as big as GTA 6, when GTA 6 will launch on the PS5/6/whatever, and Elder Scrolls will be limited to the Xbox and PC.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

First wknd missing 41% of audience. 2nd weekend if it do 64M is missing perhaps 20% of audience. Caught up for wknd 3? 
 

  Reveal hidden contents

That be about 42M I guess 👀

 

Ultron did $39M, so I guess, $42M be good but FX will make it unlikely. 4th may be.

[stripe]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Something like $61M sounds about right for Guardians 3 this weekend going off of these weekdays. The drop is likely to be a massive step up from the rest of Phase 4 and 5, and I think it's also one of the best for the franchise as a whole. The Marvels being a huge wildcard is a shame, because otherwise I can see this year being a big rebound for the Marvel brand with early raves for Loki Season 2 and Secret Invasion.

 

If 61M happens I think it would challenge second best drop ever for an MCU (Iron Man). Best drop ever was Black Panther's 44.7%

Are there already reactions for Loki and Secret Invasion? I didnt know!

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

GOTG3 does have the benefit of nothing notable opening on its second weekend. I’m also guessing it didn’t lose a single PLF on Thursday to another film having previews?
 

That will explain why it’s avoiding the 60% drops the crowded March films had. As well as the WOM. 
 

The next films to have this benefit will be Flash and Indiana Jones I think?

Flash will absolutely have all the IMAX but I'd imagine Elemental will take and keep some of the Dolby/XD/etc. PLF right from the jump as they both release on the same date. With that, your point stands but it won't quite be the same as GotGV3 for Flash. With Indy, absolutely. I can't see Joy Ride or Insidious touching any PLFs on 7/7.

Edited May 12, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Maybe not other blockbusters but Flash has No Hard Feelings in its second weekend. I guess one could argue Indy will have to go up against Insidious and Joy Ride in its second weekend too but those aren’t as notable as Feelings methinks.

My point was that I don’t think Insidious, Joy Ride or No Hard Feelings will be taking any PLF though? Not that there are no films opening at all. 
 

14 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Flash will absolutely have all the IMAX but I'd imagine Elemental will take and keep some of the Dolby/XD/etc. PLF right from the jump as they both release on the same date. With that, your point stands but it won't quite be the same as GotGV3 for Flash. With Indy, absolutely. I can't see Joy Ride or Insidious touching any PFLs on 7/7.

Ah yes I forgot all about Elemental, whoops. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

My point was that I don’t think Insidious, Joy Ride or No Hard Feelings will be taking any PLF though? Not that there are no films opening at all. 
 

Ah yes I forgot all about Elemental, whoops. 

Next closest thing is Mission Impossible which won't have them for two weekends but will have PLFs from Tuesday evening 7/11 through Thursday afternoon 7/20. Next after that I'd think would be The Meg 2 on 8/4 but then again TMNT opens that weekend and might snag some Dolby and XD screens then Gran Turismo on 8/11. Oddly enough, thinking on it more, Gran Turismo might have PLFs for 2+ weeks? Pretty much nothing remotely big opening after it until Equalizer on 9/1. Not sure it'll mean much for it though. Likely PLFs will revert back to whichever summer movie deserves to get some back later in their run.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Regarding superhero fatigue... I think it's a thing as others that said but it might not quite show this late spring/summer as Guardians looks likely to leg it out to 325M+ DOM. Spider-Verse I see doing 300M+ DOM. Flash I see doing 300M+ DOM too. So diminished returns from what we had seen in the big boom but still very good numbers and, honestly, better than most other blockbusters. Indy and Little Mermaid might be turn out to be bigger than any of these three movies DOM. Other than that, what will be?

 

It's already pretty obvious Fast X and Transformers won't do close to those numbers. Elemental will hopefully rebound for Pixar but also won't come close to those numbers. Barbie will likely breakout but I'm not convinced it's doing 300M+ DOM. Oppenheimer will do very well considering the type of film it is but absolutely won't be doing 300M+ DOM. And, even later in the year, Dune Part 2 I expect to do very, very well for the type of blockbuster it is but I'm not convinced it's doing 300M+ DOM. Year end Top 5 will likely include 2 or 3 superhero movies to go along with Super Mario. Mario being the only film that totally outclasses the superhero big earners DOM unless Little Mermaid or Indy break out big time.

Edited May 12, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[BadOlCatSylvester]

38 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

If 61M happens I think it would challenge second best drop ever for an MCU (Iron Man). Best drop ever was Black Panther's 44.7%

Are there already reactions for Loki and Secret Invasion? I didnt know!

Early insider/scooperbro word on those have been very good. Those same circles raved about Guardians 3, and now we're about to find out the audience agreed with that, so they're likely right on those Disney+ series as well.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ultron did $39M, so I guess, $42M be good but FX will make it unlikely. 4th may be.

Yeah thinking bit under 3rd but maybe above 4th

[stripe]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

GOTG3 does have the benefit of nothing notable opening on its second weekend. I’m also guessing it didn’t lose a single PLF on Thursday to another film having previews?
 

That will explain why it’s avoiding the 60% drops the crowded March films had. As well as the WOM. 
 

The next films to have this benefit will be Flash and Indiana Jones I think?

 

Lack of competition surely helps, but I feel that the strong 2nd weekend will happen because Guardians3 didn't reach its full potential in OW. An important part of its possible target audience was reluctant/not eager to see it during first days. Once WOM is here, Guardians is slowly recovering part of its audience.

 

Guardians2, MOM, Captain Marvel, Thor4 and WF didn't have new competition in their sophomore weekend but their drops were steeper. That's because all these films burned more demand in their openings.
Looking at 2nd weekend grosses, I find interesting how similar they are for most of these MCU films. 68M for CM, 66.5M for WF, 65.3M for Guardians2, 61.7M for MOM...

[stripe]

50 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Early insider/scooperbro word on those have been very good. Those same circles raved about Guardians 3, and now we're about to find out the audience agreed with that, so they're likely right on those Disney+ series as well.

 

great news. This could help increase hype for The Marvels.

[Bordlove]

So 1 billion is happening? 

[stripe]

4 minutes ago, Bordlove said:

So 1 billion is happening? 

 

Not even 850M is still guaranteed...