Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

[von Kenni]

46 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Dune has the PEREFCT spot right now.  It opens alone on Nov 3, a spot that has gone huge in the past.  It has almost no competition coming into its weekend, with the Halloween horrors normally instant wash outs.  It will get ALL PLF (and can do some of those "early" PLF shows Wed before open).  It will get HUGE showing sets.  And THEN, it will have a 2nd weekend that will be a holiday weekend and it will be around for the Thanksgiving week.  All while weather will not be an issue.  

 

As an adult-based blockbuster, it can't really get better.

[Liiviig 1998]

WB made lots of terrible decisions in the 2010s and now we are here. One of the prestigious studios is a shadow of itself.

 

DCEU has been a sinking ship post 2018. Yeah there were covid related issues but it has been flop after flop and don't get me started is Zack synders vision  scraped or not fiasco. It just confused the GA.

 

Jason killar day and date simultaneous release was a total disaster that lost WB tons of money.

 

Tried to turn fantastic beasts into something it clearly wasn't.

 

Oversaturated the Lego franchise .

And so on...

 

[PlatnumRoyce]

32 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

Paramount: Babylon, Dungeons and Dragons, Paws of Fury

 

Universal: Spirit Untamed, Easter Sunday, Renfield, and (soon) Ruby Gillman.

 

Sony: Morbius, Devotion, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, etc.

 

They might not have as many recent Ls as Disney and WB, but they're not exactly in that much of a better spot. The box office is still recovering.

It's too soon to really judge Morbius. If it didn't hurt the underlying "Sony spider-verse" brand the film's result is fine. 

 

Easter Sunday was just a dumped film and Paws of Fury was picked off the trash heap by Paramount's distribution arm. Just as big of a loss for Sony (who paid for 1/3 of the  film's production budget). I can't imagine paramount spent enough to lose a lot on it. 

[cookie]

27 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

not reading through all these pages

 

how's transformers and gotg doing

Deadline's last update had TF dropping sharp, up to 66%.

[THUNDER BIRD]

44 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Bolts is Christmas.

Bolts has full potential of wasting Christmas-NY period.

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Everyone who made Batgirl right now looking at the box office performances of the DC movies that have been released since that movie was thrown in the trash:

 

Still blows my mind that that wasn't even released directly to Max or something. I'm sure it's happened before that seemed incredibly rare.

[grey ghost]

Most people are blaming the director.

 

But what about Erza?

 

Even when you move past the LGBT political stuff you still have their alleged criminal activity.

 

This is one of the few situations where an actor has anti-star power. Where people might avoid a movie because of an actor.

 

Also aren't Snyder fans also against this movie?

 

[Darth Homer]

Have we ever seen a bigger rejection of both a franchise and a lead actor at the same time? I mean this will be the lowest grossing movie in which Batman has a major role adjusted for inflation ever. Even unadjusted it may struggle to beat Batman & Robin. How much would this be opening to without Keaton and Affleck propping it up? Sub-30?

[cookie]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Still blows my mind that that wasn't even released directly to Max or something. I'm sure it's happened before that seemed incredibly rare.

It was supposed to go to streaming in the first place. That's what probably made it easy for them to can it since they had no theatrical obligations.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Most people are blaming the director.

 

But what about Erza?

 

Even when you move past the LGBT political stuff you still have their alleged criminal activity.

 

This is one of the few situations where an actor has anti-star power. Where people might avoid a movie because of an actor.

 

Also aren't Snyder fans also against this movie?

 

Ezra's antics likely impacted promotion more than anything else (and as a result, did hurt). Imagine James Gunn's Superman film having to go ahead without whoever gets to play the Man of Steel out there charming the press lmao. 

 

Keaton has been busy filming Beetlejuice 2, which is also from WB, and the fact the studio didn't care enough to make time for him to promote this (knowing Ezra couldn't) should've been the sign that they knew this was doomed tbh.

[Madhuvan]

1 minute ago, Darth Homer said:

Have we ever seen a bigger rejection of both a franchise and a lead actor at the same time? I mean this will be the lowest grossing movie in which Batman has a major role adjusted for inflation ever. Even unadjusted it may struggle to beat Batman & Robin. How much would this be opening to without Keaton and Affleck propping it up? Sub-30?

Maybe a Speedster is not exciting on it's own. They work well when they some amazing scenes in team up movies where lead are other superheroes 

[AJG]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Most people are blaming the director.

 

But what about Erza?

 

Even when you move past the LGBT political stuff you still have their alleged criminal activity.

 

This is one of the few situations where an actor has anti-star power. Where people might avoid a movie because of an actor.

 

Also aren't Snyder fans also against this movie?

 

 

Nobody knows who Ezra Miller is. The problem was that he wasn't able to promote the movie at all.

 

No little fun YouTube skits. No car tie-in ads, no phone tie-ins ads. No images of him on a pack of frozen vegetables. No interviews. No photoshoots. No presence. 

[AJG]

5 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Maybe a Speedster is not exciting on it's own. They work well when they some amazing scenes in team up movies where lead are other superheroes 

 

The Flash has been on TV for 10 Years, and globally it's one of Americas biggest TV shows which sounds insane, but those CW DC shows air on large mainstream public broadcasters internationally (Superman and Lois airs on the BBC over here). Gotham Knights was a top show on HBO Max International a couple weeks ago.

Edited June 17, 2023 by AJG

[grey ghost]

7 hours ago, elothar said:

No kidding, in France, Eternals is seen as the best phase 4 movie by a mile ! It looked way better than most MCU projects these days. 

 

 

"Best phase 4 movie"  is kind of like "best rash" or "best headache".

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Nobody knows who Ezra Miller is. The problem was that he wasn't able to promote the movie at all.

 

No little fun YouTube skits. No car tie-in ads, no phone tie-ins ads. No images of him on a pack of frozen vegetables. No interviews. No photoshoots. No presence. 

@TwoMisfits pointed out very well that claiming that "no one knows or care who Ezra Miller is" doesn’t make sense. The lack of the the female crowd going for this film is unusually high. Underplaying this at this point is just arguing against data.

[DC Rich]

15 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Also aren't Snyder fans also against this movie?

 

I'm not sure if ten or so people make that much of a difference at the box office. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

'In recent years' means literally only three and 2023 has different circumstances. You also can't prove that general audiences knew Joker and The Batman were unique non-DCEU films. It's just an absolutely asinine reason to propose over Ezra Miller's much publicized constantly in the news antics which were heavily discussed on social media. (And yes I know there's other actors who have done shitty stuff, but Tom Cruise's scientology stuff has become a joke not something people are actually mad at him for).

 

I'd separate those two. Joker was just self-evidently seen as a "unique non-DCEU film" regardless of whether or not it was technically in the DCEU. Just look at how the film was rewarded by critics and industry groups: Joker was clearly perceived as a different sort of thing from 'comic book movies.'  

 

Quote

but Tom Cruise's scientology stuff has become a joke not something people are actually mad at him for).

 

Also...Tom Cruise didn't fall off of a cliff but he's also never really reached his pre-~2005 heights and anecdotally I think scientology stuff clearly hurt him even if it didn't rise to level of "Tom Cruise should go to jail" style reactions. 

https://www.hometheaterforum.com/community/threads/2005-at-the-box-office.187837/page-37

seems like there was real contemporary debate about just how good WotW's run was relative to correct baseline (even if studio spun it as a 100% success, you see digs at its failure to break records in e.g. the Guardians' writeup). There are more positive reads of war of the worlds box office but I really do think Cruise's brand was dinged, it just started from massive heights and at the end of the day he's personally not really been accused of anything other than acting weird

[RamblinRed]

I think both movie fans, and more importantly movie execs, need to understand the new normal we are in.

 

We know that admissions are down 20-30% from pre-pandemic and that is unlikely to change significantly. It was already trending down before the pandemic, it simply accelerated a trend that was already happening.

 

Studios/Cinemas have tried to overcome that by raising ticket prices and pushing premium, but that is only going to cover so much. If they want to continue to make the movie business profitable long term they are going to have to rein in movie budgets. 

 

Since the pandemic started only 5 movies have grossed over $1B WW in 3 1/2 years

Avatar 2

SM:NWH

TG:M

SMB

JWD

 

Avatar was the only one to cross $2B and JWD just scraped over $1B by less than $2M (with the lowest total of the 52 movies that have made over a billion). I think this is the new normal. Probably one to two billion dollar grossers a year on average. Compare that to 40 the crossed $1B from 2009-2019. 

 

Also notice only 1 CBM has earned over $1B in the last 3 years. I believe the days of CBM's routinely making over $1B WW are likely over. It looks like a really strong CBM can make around $800M give or take a little (the range that The Batman, GOTG3 and BP:WF all ended up in and that AtSV may eventually get to).

 

I don't see anything else on the calendar this year that looks like it can approach anywhere close to $1B.

It doesn't feel like the studios can count on 200-300M tent pole movies to make enough to support all their projects anymore.

 

I believe we are also seeing a situation this summer where the cinemas obviously need more content to fill seats, but with more movies out, the ceilings for those movies are likely lower as there are simply fewer dollars to go around.

 

 

[FunkMiller]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Cruise has never PERSONALLY been attached or done any of it.  It's a huge difference to folks if you're the actual perp or not...

 

PS - Ezra will struggle to lead any future big budget movie after this, just like Majors.  If you literally assault/enslave women, they are not forgiving...

 

Yeah, that's fair. You have to actively research scientology to find out how awful Cruise and the people he associates with are (some of the stuff uncovered by Leah Remini was horrifying). Miller's a much more public offender.

[PlatnumRoyce]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Ezra's antics likely impacted promotion more than anything else (and as a result, did hurt). Imagine James Gunn's Superman film having to go ahead without whoever gets to play the Man of Steel out there charming the press lmao. 

 

Keaton has been busy filming Beetlejuice 2, which is also from WB, and the fact the studio didn't care enough to make time for him to promote this (knowing Ezra couldn't) should've been the sign that they knew this was doomed tbh.

yeah, I was wondering why we weren't seeing Keaton for the final push.