Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M

[baumer]

4 hours ago, Flip said:

Will probably end at 140m 

 

Missing Puerto Rico IMAX dollars will probably take it to 142.5 🤣

[filmlover]

The Flash and Elemental already about $300K apart in dailies, yeesh. Will the former somehow manage avoiding a 65% drop or more this weekend?

[Ledmonkey96]

26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Flash and Elemental already about $300K apart in dailies, yeesh. Will the former somehow manage avoiding a 65% drop or more this weekend?

I wouldn't be too surprised if Elemental is ahead on Wednesday

[Jonwo]

I'm starting to feel bullish that Elemental will be number 1 this weekend,

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I'm starting to feel bullish that Elemental will be number 1 this weekend,

I got that feeling too

[Ledmonkey96]

I wonder what's best for Disney with relation to Elemental's D+ debut.... ignore it till it stops making money, announce it for Christmas or announce it for 1 year after it's theater release. In terms of maximizing theatrical gross that is. 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I wonder what's best for Disney with relation to Elemental's D+ debut.... ignore it till it stops making money, announce it for Christmas or announce it for 1 year after it's theater release. In terms of maximizing theatrical gross that is. 

I imagine Christmas would make the most sense but don't announce it until November. 

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I wonder what's best for Disney with relation to Elemental's D+ debut.... ignore it till it stops making money, announce it for Christmas or announce it for 1 year after it's theater release. In terms of maximizing theatrical gross that is. 

 

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I imagine Christmas would make the most sense but don't announce it until November. 

sadly, I imagine it will be on the plus in August, just like Lightyear.

[ZeroHour]

It would be amazing if Disney held Elemental until Christmas. It would also be a boon for Wish because it would let people know that movie isn’t hitting on Christmas. After Encanto and Strange World, I feel like a lot of people are going to make that assumption. 

[XXR vs XXR]

THE FLASH drop should be in the 68-72% range. Lightyear dropped 64% and it didn't have a holiday Monday nor was it a Father's Day type film, and Flash is already 10% behind its equivalent Tuesday. 

[PrinceRico]

12 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

It would be amazing if Disney held Elemental until Christmas. It would also be a boon for Wish because it would let people know that movie isn’t hitting on Christmas. After Encanto and Strange World, I feel like a lot of people are going to make that assumption. 

Disney has lost too much money on the movie. With a 200 million budget and opening of 29 million they may want to put it on streaming sooner to drive up views.

[ZeroHour]

31 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Disney has lost too much money on the movie. With a 200 million budget and opening of 29 million they may want to put it on streaming sooner to drive up views.

I don’t actually think they’ll wait until Christmas (they should though) but it seems clear after Quantumania and Avatar 2 that Disney is done rushing these movies to D+. Elemental will likely see a PVOD window too like both of those films did. I doubt releasing it on D+ at the end of summer or further into the fall makes much of a difference for the views it gets. If anything, dropping a big animated film on the service at Christmas guarantees a lot of exposure. Even Strange World saw big numbers its first week on streaming over the holidays. It would be crazier for them not to save a big film to drop in that period and they have no big releases between Haunted Mansion in July and The Marvels in November. So unless they’re planning to sabotage Wish with a Christmas streaming release, they need to save one of these big summer movies to launch on D+ over the Christmas period. 

[Bob Train]

Oh wow, Elemental is gonna lose $100m instead of $120m. Pixar is back!

[Ledmonkey96]

18 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Oh wow, Elemental is gonna lose $100m instead of $120m. Pixar is back!

Ehhhh a movie legging out off good reception is probably worth more to Disney than anything else right now. They need people to have trust in the brand again for future movies more than they need a single movie to make a profit.

[ThomasNicole]

19 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Oh wow, Elemental is gonna lose $100m instead of $120m. Pixar is back!

We don’t have to be ironic all the same, a movie can be a financial failure and still a good run compared to it’s OW

 

And for Pixar where the problem is less lack of connection with audiences and more of people waiting for streaming, having a leggy run is still a footstep in the right way 

[MovieMan89]

I don’t think a “leggy” run is what some of y’all think it is in the case of Elemental. It opened to 29m, that’s abysmal. In order for it to do any real repair to the damage, it would need Puss in Boot esque spectacular legs. Even 4x for Elemental would really be nothing in the grand scheme of things. It would still be as big of a flop as Lightyear and I don’t think it would indicate particularly incredible WOM so much as more natural course correcting for a major summer animated film that opened so horrifically. We need some like 8x multi craziness before we can start talking about Elemental having helped Pixar’s very bad state in any way whatsoever. 

[Safeno Rdz]

2 hours ago, ZeroHour said:

I don’t actually think they’ll wait until Christmas (they should though) but it seems clear after Quantumania and Avatar 2 that Disney is done rushing these movies to D+. Elemental will likely see a PVOD window too like both of those films did. I doubt releasing it on D+ at the end of summer or further into the fall makes much of a difference for the views it gets. If anything, dropping a big animated film on the service at Christmas guarantees a lot of exposure. Even Strange World saw big numbers its first week on streaming over the holidays. It would be crazier for them not to save a big film to drop in that period and they have no big releases between Haunted Mansion in July and The Marvels in November. So unless they’re planning to sabotage Wish with a Christmas streaming release, they need to save one of these big summer movies to launch on D+ over the Christmas period. 

They're probably having Haunted mansion for Christmas and Elemental for October probably

[Chaz]

Elemental will probably get added to D+ in September, shortly after the home video release. 

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, Chaz said:

Elemental will probably get added to D+ in September, shortly after the home video release. 

When are the dates? If it drops on September (D+), it will likely be another Disney bomb as Japan release is on August.

[Chaz]

44 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

When are the dates? If it drops on September (D+), it will likely be another Disney bomb as Japan release is on August.

I’m not sure. I’m just estimating based on recent other Pixar titles that released in June. 
 

Lightyear: September 13

Toy Story 4: October 8

Incredibles 2: November 6

Cars 3: November 1

Finding Dory: November 10

Inside Out: November 3

Elemental is not making money so they will not wait until November to release it on home video.