Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[filmlover]

Ruby Gillman is headed for a similar total to 2003's Sinbad, another DreamWorks release over 4th of July weekend. Congrats to them and Disney for finding their 2020s equivalents of that movie and Treasure Planet (Strange World).

[LegionWrex]

5 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Feel like budget wise we also have to acknowledge how much COVID stuff inflated budgets. Hopefully with COVID finally becoming less of an issue, we'll see budgets go down again too.

Honestly I feel this is absolutely the real issue right now. There has been a budget issue in Hollywood for a while but the sheer size of some of them this year in particular is 100% due to COVID, no two ways about it.

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

 

The takeaway shouldn't be "Flash did worse" or "Indy did worse." They are all doing bad. Even Wes Anderson's Asteroid City is floundering compared to its budget!

 

That said, I understand why people are turning the 2023 box office into a weird culture war. With a SAG strike looming and the WGA strike entering its third month, it's a scary time for theatrical.

Huh? Asteroid City is doing fine. It doing better than most Wes stuff with a similar budget. It just had the highest wide OW DOM of any Wes movie. His movies generally have around a 25M budget. I imagine Asteroid City is no different.

[Grebacio]

 

 

 

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

As far as expectations vs. reality is concerned, The Flash is definitely a much more embarrassing flop than Indiana Jones could ever be simply because the studio for the former worked overtime trying to will it into being a blockbuster until the very last second. The latter was always more of a gamble that had no hook beyond "we (again) finally made another one" and therefore had more room to go either way.

This all the way.  Just speaking for myself I gave up on the Box Office of Indy a long time ago. Once the Cannes debacle happened the goose was cooked for this.  That's probably is why International is so bad. In Europe that was major news the reception was not good at all.Seeing the movie today. As long as I enjoy it all I care about right now.  As for the Flash, which I did enjoy, I and many others probably thought they would will it to being a blockbuster at the end. I think at the end of the year more people will be talking about the implosion of the DCEU while nobody will be talking about Indy. Heck in a few weeks nobody will be talking about it. it will be on Disney Plus and people will watch it either enjoy or not and move on. 

[cooldude97]

the biggest problem with Dial of Destiny and why it was destined to fail is that it should have been a celebration for the Indiana jones character one last Hurrah. instead, it was written and directed like the funeral for the character  

[MysteryMovieMogul]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Huh? Asteroid City is doing fine. It doing better than most Wes stuff with a similar budget. It just had the highest wide OW DOM of any Wes movie. His movies generally have around a 25M budget. I imagine Asteroid City is no different.

Okay, so... numbers time!

Asteroid City: WW BO $22.7 mil/ Budget $25 mil
The French Dispatch: WW BO $46.3 mil/ Budget $25 mil
Isle of Dogs: WW BO $64.2/ Budget $35 mil

The Grand Budapest is an outlier and made $174.8 million off a $25 million budget!

So, I don't know where you're seeing it "doing better than most Wes stuff with a similar budget" because it really isn't.

 

Edited July 1, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul
typos and numbers

[KP1025]

26 minutes ago, JohnCarterofEarth said:

Less than $400M gross probably means $200M+ loss. It needs like $750M to break even maybe more.

 

Have to wait for the inevitable Deadline article for the specifics, but I don't see it losing more money than Strange World after ancilliaries. It's probably grossing at least $300 million more WW which more than makes up for the additional $100 million in spending. Plus, the $295 million budget likely doesn't account for the 25% UK tax rebate. 

[MrPink]

28 minutes ago, M37 said:

So is Jordan Peele, and a preview, OW, and overall run very similar to Nope (w/ same release week) is still where my expectations lie with Oppy

 

The lock on PLFs for 3 weeks is going to help with legs, but between subject material and length, don’t think it multis like previous Nolan offerings with how the market has softened post-pandemic/rise of streaming 

Pending reviews, I would expect multi to be a fair better than Nope which I think was fairly divisive. But a wide gap between a Dunkirk multi and Nope’s multi. Subject material and competition is a knock against it, but feel length may actually play into its favor with multi. Affects rewatches but may spread out when people get around to it due to the commitment of time. Think it can pull closer to a 3x or so

Edited July 1, 2023 by MrPink

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Okay, so... numbers time!

Asteroid City: WW BO $22.7 mil/ Budget $25 mil
The French Dispatch: WW BO $46.3 mil/ Budget $25 mil
Isle of Dogs: WW BO $64.2/ Budget $35 mil

The Grand Budapest is an outlier and made $174.8 million off a $25 million budget!

So, I don't know where you're seeing it "doing better than most Wes stuff with a similar budget" because it really isn't.

 

Asteroid City literally just went wide last week.

[JWR]

Gone in a Flash....

 

 

 

[Dragoncaine]

49 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

$5 million more than The Flash is still more people choosing to go see Indiana Jones. Yes, this is a numbers forum, but damn, there seem to be so many excuses for non-Disney films that bomb. RotB isn't Disney. Fast X isn't Disney. Ruby Gillman isn't Disney, and yet the focus is skewed toward Disney because some people are still raging over the Lightyear kiss and need Disney to somehow fail when their movie division isn't even their money-making division. Meanwhile, other movie studios are barely breaking even on certain films and don't have a fleet of Theme Parks to lean back on.

Yes, $5 million more up front which is more than offset by a nearly $100m higher budget. The Flash and Indy are set to be two of the biggest bombs ever created, so I don't know why anyone is cheerleading either of these projects. And I say that as someone who enjoyed The Flash and is looking forward to Indy this weekend. Everything is bombing, it sucks. But I'm not talking about studio optics or how pathetically WB's hype cycle for Flash backfired, I'm talking raw numbers. Flash's ludicrous marketing campaign is going to bury it six feet under, but Indy is no better if we compare what is likely to be the final gross with raw budget and P&A.

30 minutes ago, filmlover said:

As far as expectations vs. reality is concerned, The Flash is definitely a much more embarrassing flop than Indiana Jones could ever be simply because the studio for the former worked overtime trying to will it into being a blockbuster until the very last second. The latter was always more of a gamble that had no hook beyond "we (again) finally made another one" and therefore had more room to go either way.

I completely agree that The Flash is more embarrassing from an "expectations vs. reality" standpoint, but numbers-wise, they're probably just about evenly embarrassing (The Flash would be less so if its marketing campaign wasn't so hilariously outsized bc we'd then be looking at ~$500m breakeven vs. $737.5m).

Edited July 1, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Okay, so... numbers time!

Asteroid City: WW BO $22.7 mil/ Budget $25 mil
The French Dispatch: WW BO $46.3 mil/ Budget $25 mil
Isle of Dogs: WW BO $64.2/ Budget $35 mil

The Grand Budapest is an outlier and made $174.8 million off a $25 million budget!

So, I don't know where you're seeing it "doing better than most Wes stuff with a similar budget" because it really isn't.

 

Wtf? Why are you comparing the full run of French Dispatch and Isle of Dogs to Asteroid City? It's only been in wide release for a single week. It'll pass French Dispatch's entire DOM total today. Best to compare what those films had grossed after their first wide week in release. 

 

And, yes, Budapest is the outlier. That's likely to never be topped by him.

[filmlover]

Will The Flash even reach Green Lantern's total at this rate? Good grief.

 

Big but not entirely unexpected Friday-to-Friday drops for No Hard Feelings and Asteroid City (which was clearly boosted last weekend by Anderson's fanbase). The long holiday should result in more generous drops overall.

[Grebacio]

 

 

 

 

 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Asteroid City literally just went wide last week.

And it'll certainly make more than The French Dispatch when all is said and done. But it's going to lose theaters way quicker than past Anderson films because of the stacked July.

 

This forum is just as bad as the Box Office subreddit when it comes to playing favorites. It's obvious so many folks care more about a particular film failing than the numbers. 

 

But yeah, as someone said above, hopefully budgets will come down now that COVID isn't throwing a wrench into every film. Also, hopefully studios will space their films out better going forward.

 

Like, it's great Mario made $1b and Spider-Verse was a hit (I don't have its numbers in front of me), but theaters need more than this to survive. Studios do too, especially ones that aren't Universal or Sony, although Fast X and RotB kneecaps Universal a little bit.

[Bob Train]

Damn Flash is gonna blow up a lot of people’s derby

 

And I thought my 5.5m was too low…

[LegionWrex]

4 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

This forum is just as bad as the Box Office subreddit when it comes to playing favorites. It's obvious so many folks care more about a particular film failing than the numbers.

The first thing you learn about people is that cognitive bias is very indeed real even if they don't realize it (which is very likely, everybody has it). At some point you just gotta accept that and move on.

[Liiviig 1998]

65-70% drop for flash . Just unreal.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

8 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Yes, $5 million more up front which is more than offset by a nearly $100m higher budget. The Flash and Indy are set to be two of the biggest bombs ever created, so I don't know why anyone is cheerleading either of these projects. And I say that as someone who enjoyed The Flash and is looking forward to Indy this weekend. Everything is bombing, it sucks. But I'm not talking about studio optics or how pathetically WB's hype cycle for Flash backfired, I'm talking raw numbers. Flash's ludicrous marketing campaign is going to bury it six feet under, but Indy is no better if we compare what is likely to be the final gross with raw budget and P&A.

Did you read anything I wrote beyond the first sentence? I'm not making a case for Indy. I'm making the case that Disney can survive flops way better than other studios, so while this forum is arguing which film bombed harder (they both did awful and they both will lose their respective studios' money), Warner Brothers can't fall back on their Theme Park division because they don't have one!

 

That's why I find the Disney focus so funny sometimes. They can afford to release bomb after bomb as long as their Theme Park division doesn't suffer, and it isn't suffering, so I'm way more worried about Warner Brothers and the rumors they're being forced to sell parts of their catalogue to stay solvent!