Weekday numbers July 10-13

[ringedmortality]

What happened to the 40% growth from Wednesday that I was promised on the tracking thread?

[Bob Train]

22 minutes ago, John Marston said:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3313272321/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1
 

 

looking eerily similar to the 5 day opening of Transformers 5

If a film as garbage as the Last Knight jumped 70% Thurs -> Fri, then I have to believe MI7 will jump at least 85-90%. Otherwise I give up.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, LegionWrex said:

Hard to remember but the first Shrek was mainly for adult audiences, and the second, while definitely marketed towards kids, probably already had a built in adult audience due to that.

Yeah no. I’m old, and I kinda think this is a rose tinted glasses from your own pasts thing here. Shrek is a kids movie. Sure, I did watch with previous girlfriends and had a blast with it, but it’s a kids movie nonetheless. It’s kinda saying that Marvel, DC or Star Wars aren’t for kids. They are, all of them. We are just following along.

 

Shrek is as much aimed for adult audiences as Finding Nemo or The Incredibles, meaning not at all.

[emoviefan]

30 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

If a film as garbage as the Last Knight jumped 70% Thurs -> Fri, then I have to believe MI7 will jump at least 85-90%. Otherwise I give up.

I can't even believe that movie was brought up as a comp to Mission. It just boggles the mind. 

[MovieMan89]

As someone who was exactly the age at the time, Shrek 1 was a tween movie and 2 was a teen movie. It was massive with our demo and we were the ones driving it the most. Obviously it picked up kids too bc it’s animated and PG, but never underestimate the middle school and then high school phenomenon the first two were. 
 

I obviously wasn’t trying to say Shrek 2 is a good comp to DR1 lol, just that it is another backloaded franchise that couldn’t really be judged at all by opening on weekdays.  MI skewing heavy adult who are working could be a good point to K-12 still being in school for Shrek. 

[MovieMan89]

Way off topic too, but side note how brilliant it was that DWA and Katzenberg capitalized on the 90s kids who grew up with the Disney renaissance and therefore animation as a staple in our lives to make something more irreverent and adolescent targeted in that vein, since they knew we’d all be hitting that age range at the time. Couldn’t have been more perfect. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by MovieMan89

[JustLurking]

Shrek2 was a 4quadrant film enjoyable by everyone (it's also a complete masterpiece fwiw). It's starkly different from what I would truly call a kids film like most illumination stuff where the humor and just overall sensibilities are so focus targeted at kids that as an adult I have a hard time enjoying them.

[Borobudur]

On 7/13/2023 at 11:11 AM, TheFlatLannister said:

I feel like the Barbie-Oppy hype is just so suffocating right now. It's crippling any other blockbusters from breaking out. 

Disagree, Korea is not facing Barbiehelmer, Barbie presale has been weak over there and Oppy only coming in August but MI:DR still underperform over there and that market is stronghold for Cruise. 

 

I now think the Part 1 really is the factor. They shouldn't have put Part 1 in the tile or at least not in the marketing. To me Dune has an more abrupt ending and more Part 1 feel than MI:DR but WB never put Part 1 in the title. It was only revealed as a Part 1 movie by the end of movie. 

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Disagree, Korea is not facing Barbiehelmer, Barbie presale has been weak over there and Oppy only coming in August but MI:DR still underperform over there and that market is stronghold for Cruise. 

 

I now think the Part 1 really is the factor. They shouldn't have put Part 1 in the tile or at least not in the marketing. To me Dune has a more abrupt ending and more Part 1 feel than MI:DR but WB never put Part 1 in the title. It was only revealed as a Part 1 movie by the end of movie. 

I still insist that being the 7th installment of a 20 years franchise that apparently has hit its ceiling is what is key here, not that it’s a part 1 or Barbiehammer. The theory that TGM could benefit MI started here and never came to fruition. It’s that simple.

[Fanboy]

MI7 is adding nearly 300 theatres on FSS which could help its Friday bump. 

[baumer]

You know there's been a few of us now that have used Shrek 2 as a possible comparison and just to reiterate what I think everybody has been saying is that, it's not that we expect mission Impossible to have the ridiculous increases like 200% on Friday and 58% on Saturday but the fact that it was released in the early part of the week and it does cater to an older audience, it could go up significantly on Friday and saturday. Let's hope it does because the numbers right now are not looking very good.

[baumer]

With a 4.5 Thursday, I'm curious what kind of increases we can expect from SOF. 

 

If it follows last weekend we'd get

 

6.3

8.6

8.7

 

24 mill 🤐

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

With a 4.5 Thursday, I'm curious what kind of increases we can expect from SOF. 

 

If it follows last weekend we'd get

 

6.3

8.6

8.7

 

25 mill 🤐

 

I think we'll see a small Sunday drop (I think)...so, I'd be in the $20M+, but not quite $25M club...although who knows...anytime I think it might be time for the movie to slow down, it just keeps speeding up...

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[baumer]

15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I think we'll see a small Sunday drop (I think)...so, I'd be in the $20M+, but not quite $25M club...although who knows...anytime I think it might be time for the movie to slow down, it just keeps speeding up...

 

 

Yes I agree with you. I don't think we'll see numbers exactly like last weekend. But if it did follow the exact same pattern not only is 100 mill toast it could be heading to some really gaudy gross even the most optimistic of us would not have seen.

[CJohn]

I don't think a run has ever shocked me as much as Dead Reckoning P1. I am in absolute disbelief. 

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I don't think a run has ever shocked me as much as Dead Reckoning P1. I am in absolute disbelief. 

We all get our TASM2 moment. It’s a matter of when. It’s a canon event.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I don't think a run has ever shocked me as much as Dead Reckoning P1. I am in absolute disbelief. 

 

I am not leaving the $300M+ DOM train til this movie is dead and buried outside the theatrical market...then, I'll go through my 5 stages of grief and wonder how an indy movie sniped it right before open...

 

I mean, that's my biggest wow - it's not even making 2x/day of an indy movie that opened 11 days ago now...

 

But I have hope that this will have a GotG3 run - semi-disappointing open followed by a long steady run b/c it's guaranteed to run past Barbie/Oppy, so it's around til Labor Day...

[stripe]

Sound Of Freedom 2nd weekend over OW? That would be awesome!

If Barbie doesn't overperform like crazy, SOF could become the success story of the Summer. And it would be an original under the radar non IP movie.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I don't think a run has ever shocked me as much as Dead Reckoning P1. I am in absolute disbelief. 

Q won. @Maggie won. What a disgrace.

[stripe]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I don't think a run has ever shocked me as much as Dead Reckoning P1. I am in absolute disbelief. 

 

This left me thinking what are my WTF underperformers following BO. Scream 4 would be one of them. I really thought hype/nostalgia was there and that it would open over 40M.