Weekday numbers July 10-13

[TMP]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Gen Z is infatuated with Keanu. Tom Cruise is viewed as outdated by my generation. 

Nah, I don't think that's true after Top Gun and especially Matrix 4 lol - I'm only in my 20's and I remember the tide on Cruise shifting immensely from Mummy (where he felt like a punchline everywhere) to Maverick (where he's mr. saving hollywood again). I do think the marketing campaign Paramount ran for this movie was really strange, which hurt it

[Liiviig 1998]

Ok..

No offense some don't understand what a flop is here.

 

This needs 700m to breakeven (2.5*)

 

Those using TLM as comp it's not an apple to apples comparison.

 

TLM  has a higher domestic share compared to OS and barely made anything in china.

 

291*0.55 - 160m

249*0.4 -99m

3.7*0.25 -0.9

260m in revenue and counting . It's already exceeded it's production budget. Now ancillaries will do  the rest.

 

Mission impossible is OS heavy and  DR will probably end with lower Domestic share and like around 75m+ in china.

 

Let me just give an estimated range.

 

185 *0.55 - 102m

400*.4.     - 160m

85*0.25.  - 21.25m

Total revenue is 283m which is lower than production budget but it's close enough so breakeven can happen.

 

Percentage that goes back to studio.

 

55% - domestic

38%-40% OS- china

25% china

 

This is the split deadline uses in it's estimation of profit or loss for films. They maybe shitty at tracking box-office but when it comes movie financials and budgets they pretty good . So  the splits are Not just random.

 

2-2.5* is the general breakeven point rule of thumb dependent on Dom/Os share. Once again this range is  not just random.

 

DR needs at least 670M+ to have a chance at breaking even. 700m would guarantee it.

 

Yeah we know covid ballooned the budget and no Russia but in the end a flop is still a flop.

 

Sure some are being hyperpobolic with doom and gloom but also some are just saying throwing numbers and saying 570m to low 600m  is fine and it's not financially speaking.

 

 

 

[ZeroHour]

I look forward to a lively discussion about Ethan Hunt dolls. 

[dxmatrixdt]

didn't the trailer debut for Mi7 in front of TGM a year ago have an emotional response?

[TMP]

35 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

I look forward to a lively discussion about Ethan Hunt dolls. 

Fun(ish) fact: Tom Cruise blacklists any and all merchandise with his face on it, since having statues made of you goes against one of the tenets of scientology. There was a bunch of Mummy merchandise of his character that got produced which got shitcanned last minute when he didn't approve it and it goes on ebay for $1,000+. I think the Applebees cut-out from Maverick's the closest thing he'll allow?

It feels weird since there's a lot of Travolta Pulp Fiction & Battlefield Earth dolls though...

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

44 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

I look forward to a lively discussion about Ethan Hunt dolls. 

 

@Ethan Hunt What kind of dolls do you have?

[ringedmortality]

10 minutes ago, TMP said:

It feels weird since there's a lot of Travolta Pulp Fiction & Battlefield Earth dolls though...

 

Travolta isn't Jesus. Cruise is their Jesus.

[Austin]

1 hour ago, ringedmortality said:

It's always the same people that get triggered when you call Sound of Freedom a religious movie even when it's a joke.

LMAO

 

This is my first comment regarding the movie on this sub, don't pull that shit outta yah ass. Also, how is that me getting "triggered" when I was correcting a statement that could be interpreted in its derivative meaning in a radical fashion? Someone saying it's a religious movie is what many have said or seen the movie as unironically, when it clearly isnt.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Austin

[Austin]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

not talking about SOF, but there's going to be huge amounts of audience overlap between it and (what I assume will be) the big one (passion 2)

Oh gotcha.

 

People have being claiming this as a religious movie on social media and I was trying to correct that notion.

[The Panda]

I’ve seen a lot of reports that large portions of SoF’s audience are no shows, particularly in the cities (due to the “pay it forward” astroturfing campaign). 
 

That’s pretty terrible for theaters. A sold out theater with nobody in it is a concessionless theater. It also crowds our showings for movies that actually have real people showing up for them (and buying popcorn, etc). 
 

I hope this doesn’t encourage future marketing strategies to copy it.

[TwoMisfits]

FRIDAY Numbers from Deadline...https://deadline.com/2023/07/box-office-mission-impossible-dead-reckoning-tom-cruise-1235434821/

 

MI7 "what is expected to be a $16M Friday and $52.2M 3-day at 4,327 theaters.

 

Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom continues to ring loudly at 3,265 theaters with a second Friday of $6M (+15%), a second weekend between $20M-$22.5M and running cume that could reach $81M by EOD Sunday.

 

Sony/Stage 6 Films/Blumhouse’s Insidious: The Red Door is seeing a $4.35M Friday, -71% with a second weekend of $13.5M, -59%, running total by Sunday of $58.6M at 3,188 theaters.

 

Disney/Lucasfilm’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny booked at 3,865 is seeing a third Friday of $3.6M, -53% and third weekend of $12.9M, -53%, and running total by Sunday of $146.2M.

 

Disney/Pixar’s Elemental continues to hold in the top five with an estimated fifth weekend of $8.8M, a great -12% hold, and running total of $125.3M, Friday is estimated to be around $2.5M at 3,235 theaters."

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[LegionWrex]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

FRIDAY Number from Deadline...https://deadline.com/2023/07/box-office-mission-impossible-dead-reckoning-tom-cruise-1235434821/

 

MI7 "what is expected to be a $16M Friday and $52.2M 3-day at 4,327 theaters.

 

Very close to Rogue Nation's 3-day. Exactly as I expected.

[Mulder]

So apparently Sound of Freedom is having entire theaters bought out. Only discussing in box office terms but I’d take anything from it now with a grain of salt.

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

MI7 "what is expected to be a $16M Friday and $52.2M 3-day at 4,327 theaters.

 

 

[LegionWrex]

Also OOF that predicted Insidious drop.

[Michael Gary Scott]

7 hours ago, M37 said:

Yep, Fallout is the exception - Rogue Nation was also 63% M

 

I do wonder if Fallout benefited from Greatest Showman and/or Black Panther afterglow, women turning out more for Rebecca Ferguson & Angela Basset respectively than the 6th entry in an action franchise 

That Henry Cavill effect

[Rainy]

So I’m guessing that’s a bad number?

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

Henry Cavill’s character should’ve had a twin brother to bring back for Dead Reckoning. 

[MovieMan89]

I guess literally all of Gen Z and Millennial attention is being sucked up by Barbenheimer right now. I did say all along 3 heavy adult skew blockbusters in a row was stupid, but figured MI was the safest by far. Idk, if Opp doesn’t breakout then maybe amazing legs. Not likely if Opp breaks out. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by MovieMan89

[LegionWrex]

1 minute ago, Rainy said:

So I’m guessing that’s a bad number?

It's definitely a bit disappointing considering it's budget. It's not performing like a Fallout, it's reminding me more of Rogue Nation then anything else.