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[excel1]

2 thoughts:

 

1) The assembly line franchise tentpole filmmaking era of 2010-2019 is D.E.A.D. Flash, Indiana Jones, and MI7 look like, and pretty much are, films that would been mild to big successes circa 2018-2019. It feels so recent, because it is, but these 6 weekends can be summarized as absolutely Gen Z & young, Nolanized Millennials making a thunderous statement that they are through with the safe, predictable, fast-food type of tentpole filmmaking. They some spicey, unique flavors added to the menu and will reward high profile, quality creativity. 

 

We may be about to a 2006-2009 similar era of transition where we see huge declines in a number of "big" sequels (Aquaman, MI8, etc) so big to massive underperformances ala Pirates 3, Shrek 3, The Mummy 3, Rush hour 3, Terminator 4, etc as it becomes clear much their audience has moved on.

 

2) Is it time to take films like KILLERS OF FLOWER MOON box office prospects much more seriously? A super critically acclaimed film from a legacy filmmaker starring a mega star in Leo? They may have made a mistake with releasing reviews so early though.

Edited July 22, 2023 by excel1

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I just can’t imagine anybody who is going to see Dune needs to see them on a press tour to want to go to the movie. It’s the second half of a two-film epic that people are either already invested in, or they’re not.
 

If it was the first film, then yeah - I would understand a potential delay. But the first film’s success has already sold the second one in my eyes. Awareness is substantial enough for them to surely not even question releasing it in the fall?? 
 

Cinemas need movies and we’re on a roll now. The last thing studios should be doing is moving films that are ready. Especially ones that sell themselves. Momentum is everything 

It reminds me of what happened to Harry Potter and The Half Blood Prince which was completed but WB had such a big hit in 2008 with TDK that the year after was looking a bit bare and Potter moving to summer meant they could have a hit in 2009.

 

WB's 2024 summer slate is looking a bit bare and I think Dune Part 2 would give them that boost since they have other films in 2023 to cushion the blow. 

[Jonwo]

Just now, excel1 said:

2 thoughts:

 

1) The assembly line franchise tentpole filmmaking era of 2010-2019 is D.E.A.D. Flash, Indiana Jones, and MI7 look like, and pretty much are, films that would been mild to big successes circa 2018-2019. It feels so recent, because it is, but these 6 weekends can be summarized as absolutely Gen Z & young, Nolanized Millennials making a thunderous statement that they are through with the safe, predictable, fast-food type of tentpole filmmaking. They some spicey, unique flavors added to the menu and will reward high profile, quality creativity. 

 

2) Is it time to take films like KILLERS OF FLOWER MOON box office prospects much more seriously? A super critically acclaimed film from a legacy filmmaker starring a mega star in Leo? They may have made a mistake with releasing reviews so early though.

Killers of The Flower Moon is not going to make huge money, it should do well but Marty is not Nolan and even Leo has his limits. A nearly 4 hour film is a tough sell.

[cannastop]

1.8 million on Friday is good for Elemental. Sets up for maybe a $6.3 million weekend. Nice hold for all the Barbenheimer craziness 

[Issac Newton]

OPPENHEIMER $33.0M

[YM!]

I think Flower Moon can do 100m, maybe 150m domestic. Think so long as marketing is strong for it, the audience will follow.

[reddevil19]

Dune DOES need the stars out there in order to promote it properly, otherwise it's not going to break out beyond "cinephiles". The strike means stars can't use social media to promote the movie either. And non-related social media will probably come across as try-hard marketing rather than something clever. Additionally, while Villeneuve is probably mentioned in the same breath as Nolan in cinephile circles, their fanbases are nowhere comparable. Nolan can open a movie to 50 million on his name alone, Villeneuve can't yet. Which means having him as the face of the movie won't work. Hell, even with Nolan for Oppenheimer, the best interviews have been the ones with members of the cast (such as RDJ). There's a reason they're movie stars - they are charismatic and know that half their job is to sell the movie. Lack of stars promoting won't mean a movie flops, but it can make a considerable difference for its OW (which, in turn, might limit overall numbers if the starting base for WOM is smaller than it would have been otherwise).

[Issac Newton]

,

Edited July 22, 2023 by Issac Newton
click bait

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Studios are thinking more about the long term than anything else. The fact the studios are already delaying movies from this fall (including rumors about movies on the move) indicates that 1) they don't expect the strike to be resolved in the near future (their fault and no one else's but I digress) and 2) there's about to be a few holes in the schedule next year that will need to be filled due to a lot of movies being held up by the strike right now (and unlikely to make their dates because of it). It's all about finding that middle ground where everyone wins.

 

Besides, Dune is in a tough spot right now since it's set to lose all IMAX/PLF screens in Weekend 2. If they can find another, better spot where it can thrive, it wouldn't be the worst thing for it.

I think with a lot of films which are stacked on certain dates, just moving them to where films which won't be ready makes sense. Disney has Kingdom of The Planet of the Apes on Memorial Day weekend, that could move up a few weeks and Ghostbusters could easily move from December this year to June 7th. There are films which are done but undated which may end up getting dated. 

 

The studios are in a pickle but I don't think the situation will be as bad as Covid was.

[baumer]

60% increase for mission Impossible is really impressive. I guess it kind of shows that it's an older audience definitely coming out for it.

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

70

55

47

 

33

27

23

 

$172M for Barbie, $83M for Oppenheimer.

 

We're so fucking back

Capacity is going to limit the Sat jumps IMO, not a lot of room for growth except in the earlier (and lower priced) daytime shows

 

Barbie: $22.3/$47.7/$53/$41 = $164M

Oppy: $10.5/$22.5/$26.5/$22.5 = $82M

 

If this weekend had been given the space - and so seats - of a typical tentpole, challenging NWH would have been on the table. But that lack of supply just means demand will roll forward, legs will be great for both

[Issac Newton]

BARBIE $70.5M

[upriser7]

Barbie doing better than expected in China

 

 

[excel1]

Capacity limits on Saturday absolutely mean Sunday will have above average holds. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Sunday 10-15% drop for each film. 

[WorkingonaName]

Just now, upriser7 said:

Barbie doing better than expected in China

 

 

Over Mario might happen if China explodes. 

[upriser7]

Also good hold for Elemental 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Capacity is going to limit the Sat jumps IMO, not a lot of room for growth except in the earlier (and lower priced) daytime shows

 

Barbie: $22.3/$47.7/$53/$41 = $164M

Oppy: $10.5/$22.5/$26.5/$22.5 = $82M

 

If this weekend had been given the space - and so seats - of a typical tentpole, challenging NWH would have been on the table. But that lack of supply just means demand will roll forward, legs will be great for both

BOT when Barbie comes just short of HP8's opening weekend record:

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Killers of The Flower Moon is not going to make huge money, it should do well but Marty is not Nolan and even Leo has his limits. A nearly 4 hour film is a tough sell.

I mean, we've seen the sorts of success this combination turns out. 100-150 million seems very achievable, but there's little to suggest it would go much beyond that, especially with that runtime (we're seeing how hampered Oppenheimer is by the runtime, and KOFTM won't have the prolonged PLF demand that Oppie has, simply because Nolan is basically synonymous with IMAX now). 

 

Similarly, while Leo is a huge name, the biggest non-Titanic movie is Inception, and by a decent margin - again, Nolan, immediately after TDK, with the insane visuals and cultural zeitgeist that went way beyond cinephiles.

After that, Spielberg, Tarantino and the one where the bear rapes him (I mean, seriously, that was a very prevalent discussion point about his desperate Oscar attempt) stand out before you get to the Marty collaborations. I would look at around 130 for KOTFM. 🤷‍♂️

[harry713]

8 minutes ago, cannastop said:

1.8 million on Friday is good for Elemental. Sets up for maybe a $6.3 million weekend. Nice hold for all the Barbenheimer craziness 

I could see 6.7 happening. It’s Sat/Sun has grown stronger than it’s Friday’s with each passing weekend. 
 

1.8

2.7

2.2

[Merkel]

20 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I just can’t imagine anybody who is going to see Dune needs to see them on a press tour to want to go to the movie. It’s the second half of a two-film epic that people are either already invested in, or they’re not.
 

If it was the first film, then yeah - I would understand a potential delay. But the first film’s success has already sold the second one in my eyes. Awareness is substantial enough for them to surely not even question releasing it in the fall?? 
 

Cinemas need movies and we’re on a roll now. The last thing studios should be doing is moving films that are ready. Especially ones that sell themselves. Momentum is everything 

 

 

You have to realize a press tour could also make people who didn't even watch Part One interest in watching Part Tow and will, therefore, watch Part One beforehand.

 

In fact, I do believe a significant portion of the increase I expect Part Two to have over Part One will come from this sort of audience.

 

You simply cannot rely on the goodwill from Part One alone. If not, why would Tom Cruise even bother promoting Dead Reckoning, after the success and great reception of Fallout?