Weekday numbers July 24-27

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

26M Wed would have been mind-breaking.

 

23M is still mind-boggling. What a phenomenal opening week for Barbie.

can it stay over 20M today? I mean not go under 20M. 

[Cheddar Please]

25 minutes ago, M37 said:

Can anyone name the last major release to match its Thursday preview on the first full Thursday? (Without some holiday/school impacts, and MI7 doesn’t count because of Paramount shenanigans). I’m having a difficult time trying to come up with one

 

Because both Barbie and Oppy have a chance today, at $22.3M and $10.5M respectively 

Is that what tracking is indicating right now? Because a flat Thursday with Haunted Mansion previews stealing screens would be huge, especially in terms of its ramifications for the weekend

[harrisonisdead]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

Can anyone name the last major release to match its Thursday preview on the first full Thursday? (Without some holiday/school impacts, and MI7 doesn’t count because of Paramount shenanigans). I’m having a difficult time trying to come up with one

 

Because both Barbie and Oppy have a chance today, at $22.3M and $10.5M respectively 

Minions 2 got close last summer, $10.34M to $10.75M

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

can it stay over 20M today? I mean not go under 20M. 

 

I dont see any reason why it should not be able do that. In fact, i could see it having a better 2nd Thursday number than its first (Previews) Thursday of 22,3M.

 

In other words, it would need a drop worse than -13,4% to go under 20M for Thursday. TDK dropped 10%, BATB 2017 dropped just -5% (although not a perfect comp because it opened in March), JW also dopped -10%.

 

With the kind of WOM Barbie is having, a -10% drop is probably the very worst-case scenario, so a Thursday over 20M again should be locked.

[eeetooki]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

$20m plus 20% of the gross.

 

Sounds like a lot, but when you have flops left and right, at least Nolan's movies are a guaranteed money maker these days. Tenet being the only exception, but that was released at the height of the pandemic.

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Hiccup23]

Thinking Barbie will fall around $21.3M today. I really don't see this missing $100M this weekend. 

[Sophia Jane]

Second Weekend (three day)	Opening Weekend (three day)	Change (%)
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	2015	$149,202,860	$247,966,675	-39.8
2	Avengers: Endgame	2019	$147,383,211	$357,115,007	-58.7
3	Avengers: Infinity War	2018	$114,774,810	$257,698,183	-55.5
4	Black Panther	2018	$111,658,835	$202,003,951	-44.7
5	Jurassic World	2015	$106,588,440	$208,806,270	-49.0
6	The Avengers	2012	$103,052,274	$207,438,708	-50.3
7	The Super Mario Bros. Movie	2023	$92,347,190	$146,361,865	-36.9
8	Beauty and the Beast	2017	$90,426,717	$174,750,616	-48.3
9	Top Gun: Maverick	2022	$90,037,011	$126,707,459	-28.9
10	Frozen 2	2019	$85,977,773	$130,263,358	-34.0
11	Spider-Man: No Way Home	2021	$84,548,505	$260,138,569	-67.5
12	Incredibles 2	2018	$80,347,651	$182,687,905	-56.0
13	Avengers: Age of Ultron	2015	$77,746,929	$191,271,109	-59.4
14	The Lion King	2019	$76,621,553	$191,770,759	-60.0
15	Avatar	2009	$75,617,183	$77,025,481	-1.8
16	The Dark Knight	2008	$75,166,466	$158,411,483	-52.5
17	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	2013	$74,179,601	$158,074,286	-53.1
18	Finding Dory	2016	$72,959,954	$135,060,273	-46.0
19	Captain America: Civil War	2016	$72,637,142	$179,139,142	-59.5
20	Iron Man 3	2013	$72,525,615	$174,144,585	-58.4
21	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	2017	$72,389,590	$177,383,864	-59.2

Edited July 27, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[Hatebox]

Holy shit at that spider-man domestic number. I hadn’t been following it at all.

[WorkingonaName]

2 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

Second Weekend (three day)	Opening Weekend (three day)	Change (%)
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	2015	$149,202,860	$247,966,675	-39.8
2	Avengers: Endgame	2019	$147,383,211	$357,115,007	-58.7
3	Avengers: Infinity War	2018	$114,774,810	$257,698,183	-55.5
4	Black Panther	2018	$111,658,835	$202,003,951	-44.7
5	Jurassic World	2015	$106,588,440	$208,806,270	-49.0
6	The Avengers	2012	$103,052,274	$207,438,708	-50.3
7	The Super Mario Bros. Movie	2023	$92,347,190	$146,361,865	-36.9
8	Beauty and the Beast	2017	$90,426,717	$174,750,616	-48.3
9	Top Gun: Maverick	2022	$90,037,011	$126,707,459	-28.9
10	Frozen 2	2019	$85,977,773	$130,263,358	-34.0
11	Spider-Man: No Way Home	2021	$84,548,505	$260,138,569	-67.5
12	Incredibles 2	2018	$80,347,651	$182,687,905	-56.0
13	Avengers: Age of Ultron	2015	$77,746,929	$191,271,109	-59.4
14	The Lion King	2019	$76,621,553	$191,770,759	-60.0
15	Avatar	2009	$75,617,183	$77,025,481	-1.8
16	The Dark Knight	2008	$75,166,466	$158,411,483	-52.5
17	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	2013	$74,179,601	$158,074,286	-53.1
18	Finding Dory	2016	$72,959,954	$135,060,273	-46.0
19	Captain America: Civil War	2016	$72,637,142	$179,139,142	-59.5
20	Iron Man 3	2013	$72,525,615	$174,144,585	-58.4
21	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	2017	$72,389,590	$177,383,864	-59.2

Avatar with dat sub 2% drop. 

[upriser7]

 

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

Second Weekend (three day)	Opening Weekend (three day)	Change (%)
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	2015	$149,202,860	$247,966,675	-39.8
2	Avengers: Endgame	2019	$147,383,211	$357,115,007	-58.7
3	Avengers: Infinity War	2018	$114,774,810	$257,698,183	-55.5
4	Black Panther	2018	$111,658,835	$202,003,951	-44.7
5	Jurassic World	2015	$106,588,440	$208,806,270	-49.0
6	The Avengers	2012	$103,052,274	$207,438,708	-50.3
7	The Super Mario Bros. Movie	2023	$92,347,190	$146,361,865	-36.9
8	Beauty and the Beast	2017	$90,426,717	$174,750,616	-48.3
9	Top Gun: Maverick	2022	$90,037,011	$126,707,459	-28.9
10	Frozen 2	2019	$85,977,773	$130,263,358	-34.0
11	Spider-Man: No Way Home	2021	$84,548,505	$260,138,569	-67.5
12	Incredibles 2	2018	$80,347,651	$182,687,905	-56.0
13	Avengers: Age of Ultron	2015	$77,746,929	$191,271,109	-59.4
14	The Lion King	2019	$76,621,553	$191,770,759	-60.0
15	Avatar	2009	$75,617,183	$77,025,481	-1.8
16	The Dark Knight	2008	$75,166,466	$158,411,483	-52.5
17	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	2013	$74,179,601	$158,074,286	-53.1
18	Finding Dory	2016	$72,959,954	$135,060,273	-46.0
19	Captain America: Civil War	2016	$72,637,142	$179,139,142	-59.5
20	Iron Man 3	2013	$72,525,615	$174,144,585	-58.4
21	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	2017	$72,389,590	$177,383,864	-59.2

 

Im thinking Barbie can do 95 - 105M 2nd weekend.

[Sophia Jane]

only 6 movie cross $100m on its second WE

[vale9001]

I think Barbie could more bigger during summer weekdays, and it's less "all family at the theater" than Avengers, Jurassic world etc..

So i'm feeling 90-100M range, with probably again new very fun numbers from monday. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by vale9001

[Sophia Jane]

6 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

I think Barbie could more bigger during summer weekdays, and it's less "all family at the theater" than Avengers, Jurassic world etc..

So i'm feeling 90-100M range, with probably again new very fun numbers from monday. 

Avengers not “all family in theater”,is just like Barbie,MCU audience are majorly teens or young people ,elder or parents not so care about it ,just like Barbie main audience are girls

Edited July 27, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[Valonqar]

44 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I dont see any reason why it should not be able do that. In fact, i could see it having a better 2nd Thursday number than its first (Previews) Thursday of 22,3M.

 

In other words, it would need a drop worse than -13,4% to go under 20M for Thursday. TDK dropped 10%, BATB 2017 dropped just -5% (although not a perfect comp because it opened in March), JW also dopped -10%.

 

With the kind of WOM Barbie is having, a -10% drop is probably the very worst-case scenario, so a Thursday over 20M again should be locked.

 

Thank you!  Doing the math for Countdown2Barbillion so that's why I needed to know. 

[Jiffy]

So are TFA and Endgame the only other films with a full set of $20m+ weekdays? Not to jinx it.

[M37]

17 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

 

It’s better if you take out previews, only count the 7-day week (especially since two of those weeks basically had none anyway)

 

1) Force Awakens Xmas = $514M
2) Avatar Xmas = $506M
3) Endgame OWeek = $478M

4) Force Awakens OWeek = $473M* 

5) Barbenheimer Oweek = ~$458M

6) No Way Home OWeek = $433M

(may not actually be 6th w/o previews)

 

(*As Charlie would tell you, TFA preview probably overestimated, so True week like $3M higher)

[baumer]

44 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

This is going to do close to finish with close to 90 mill. Incredible.