The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area PREMIERE NIGHT

(Thr Prev) Seat Report:  PREMIERE (THR PREV) MID-DAY REPORT [12:00pm-12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	155	18378	19180	802	4.18%

 

 

Total Net Showings Removed Since Last Night	1
Total Net Seats Removed Since Last Night	16
Total Net Seats Sold Since Last Night	321

NOTE:  One of the local theaters, understandably perhaps, set a couple of 2pm showtimes for today last night, which were subsequently yanked this morning.

 

TET Thru (Mid-Day) = 0.08621x TET Fri (T-2) [????m] (802/9303)

---

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:  [USE MOSTLY FOR PACE PURPOSES ONLY!!!! - ***MOSTLY*** IGNORE THE COMPS]

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	3.04		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	2.85%		1.52m	2.20m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	4.12		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	3.80%		1.48m	2.15m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	5.38		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	4.73%		1.56m	2.26m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	5.44		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	4.77%		1.52m	2.21m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	8.54		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	7.66%		1.49m	2.17m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	8.72		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	7.46%		1.53m	2.21m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

YET MORE T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps: [AGAIN USE MOSTLY FOR PACE PURPOSES!!!]

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [11:30-12:35]	7.65		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	6.82%		1.65m	2.40m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	8.45		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	7.31%		1.52m	2.21m
BA [11:35-12:25]	22.15		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	17.85%		1.68m	2.44m
Ava 2[11:30-12:15]	10.14		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	8.92%		1.72m	2.50m
Shaz2[11:45-12:10]	64.37		177	1246		0/165	21921/23167	5.38%		1663	48.23%		2.19m	3.17m
TLM [11:40-12:15]	14.31		629	5603		0/225	23553/29156	19.22%		6561	12.22%		1.47m	2.14m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	9.94		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	8.23%		1.72m	2.50m
RotB[11:40-12:10]	20.46		487	3919		0/202	21893/25812	15.18%		4973	16.13%		1.80m	2.61m
Barb [11:30-12:40]	7.58		1130	10583		3/271	19233/29816	35.49%		12077	6.64%		1.69m	2.45m
Oppy[12:15-12:25]	19.69		367	4074		2/80	6785/10859	37.52%		4621	17.36%		2.07m	3.00m
Barbn[11:30-12:10]	5.47		1497	14657		5/351	26018/40675	36.03%		16698	4.80%		1.79m	2.60m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     124/5770  [2.15% sold]

 

=======

 

Ain't gonna pull up the "I've made a huge mistake" Arrested Development meme for those theater owners expecting a huge amount of walkups tonight as for all I know it'll still do better than normal Thursday night numbers.  But if they were expected a rush to the doors, they might want a re-think.

 

I pulled in a ton of lower grossing movies mostly for pace.  Is obviously outpacing the Shazam 2's of the world and maybe is a tier or so below the Black Adam's and the Rise of the Beasts type movies.

 

Might do a check of my Master List to see similar films that did 300 to 375 at the mid day (one benefit of tracking a bazillion movies is that I have a bazillion comps I can pull from) to get a sense of what this might get tonight.  If so, won't be for a bit.

 

As for what showtimes are selling?  PLFs, obvs.  And the 6pm'ers.  Anything else?  Not much.

 

Again, wouldn't read too much into the comps as every last one of those films had pre-sale windows and this one didn't.  But as a guide for expecting sales for the rest of the day?  A compare/contrast to final numbers at end of tracking might work.

 

But, I had like NO TIME to do any of that.  In fact, consider y'alls lucky you even got the extra info on smaller releases. 😛

 

Bless you, this is amazing work!

[vafrow]

MTC4 website has been wonky all day, but thought I'd update with a final showtime count.

 

29 showtimes in the GTHA radius. It's in about 80% of theatres, and still only one theatre that has two showtimes. From what others are seeing, MTC4 went light on Thursday previews, and given sales, likely a smart move.

 

I was checking a few hours ago and estimated about 20-25 tickets per showtime. Sales don't appear to have increased since that point, so I'd say there isn't a late walk up effect that I'm seeing.

 

Also, all matinee shows are restored! I don't know why this has been a point of obsession for me, but, I'm happy to see it fully resolved.

 

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Also, all matinee shows are restored! I don't know why this has been a point of obsession for me, but, I'm happy to see it fully resolved.

 

And now we know the REAL reason Tay Tay expanded everyone's showtimes to 2pm for Fri!  She didn't want to face a lawsuit from to disappoint all of her Canuck Swifties!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

As for all of us trackers down in the States?  Well, now we can:

 

 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	553	24356	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.302x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.18M THUR Previews

(0.457x) of Mi7 ~$3.20M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.19M 

 

I'm thinking of switching comps tmrw, idk I just feel like Oppy and Mi7 are too big scale wise to really capture KOTFM. Let me know what y'all think can work comp wise 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	580	25536	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.287x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.01M THUR Previews

(0.461x) of Mi7 ~$3.22M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.16M 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
167	2326	31126	7.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

83

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(1.095x) of Flash~$10.62M THUR Previews

(0.775x) of ATSV ~$13.45M THUR Previews

(1.633x) of Fast X~$12.25M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $12.11M

 

For a "horror" film, daily pace is so nuts 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	2396	32508	7.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

70

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(1.083x) of Flash $10.51M THUR Previews

(0.745x) of ATSV $12.92M THUR Previews

(1.670x) of Fast X $12.52M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.98M

 

*For fun*

(0.838x) of Barbie $17.68M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1729	50028	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

110

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-29

 

(0.448x) of GOTG3~$7.83M THUR Previews

(1.129x) of Indy 5~$8.13M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $7.98M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1852	50028	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

123

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-28

 

(0.473x) of GOTG3~$8.28M THUR Previews

(1.180x) of Indy 5~$8.49M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $8.39M

 

1. Pace is actually pretty good??? So maybe the ceiling isn't collapsing just yet

2. In the grand scheme of things, pace doesn't matter so much since its starting from such a low baseline

[keysersoze123]

Day 3 increase is always very good. I definitely think the Eras early release took buzz away from presales yesterday. So it recovered. Key thing is steady state pace from next week. It has no catalyst until its premier(do we have any date yet) and social media reactions post that. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	12226	43831	27.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

103

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

21

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.410x) of GOTG3~$24.67M FRIDAY for TET

(1.806x) of ATSV~$31.34M FRIDAY for TET

(2.617x) of TLM~$29.96M FRIDAY for TET 

(1.374x) of Barbie~$28.99M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $28.74M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $40.24M

 

Decreased by $3M vs comps today 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
363	12993	71527	18.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

767

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

137

 

SELLOUTS

21

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.386x) of GOTG3~$24.25M FRIDAY for TET

(1.566x) of ATSV~$27.18M FRIDAY for TET

(2.437x) of TLM~$25.09M FRIDAY for TET 

(1.226x) of Barbie~$25.88M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $25.6M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $35.8M

 

Good late push and a shit-ton of showings added, but the bleeding didn't stop. $4.5M decrease against comps today 

[Derpity]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It has no catalyst until its premier(do we have any date yet) and social media reactions post that. 

Maybe The Marvels can get a waiver from SAG-AFTRA for actor promotion😀

[Nomoras]

Fixed the D-box double counting, I think.

So some theatres filled up pretty well. Surprising given the one day notice, and on a Thursday night. Bodes well for the weekend?

So I'm quite late with this prediction, but I think The Eras Tour ^{will outperform Barbie on every metric.} 

Rest of the numbers are coming.

 

	Occupied	Available	Seats	Filled	Quartiles	Theatre Count	Showtime Count
Today October 12, 2023	2074	23070	25144	8.25	0|2.93|5.87| 12.93|50.45	108/155	124/125

 

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Nomoras

[Inceptionzq]

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Thursday

78 Showings

939

+939

10191

0.065	Barbie Thurs T-0	1.46M
	Adjusted Barbie Thurs T-0	2.12M

 

Copied @Porthos' homework for the adjustment

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	176	233	14107	25326	55.7

 

Comps, no adjustments:

1.91x Barbie (w/ EA): $42.6 Million

3.63x Oppenheimer: $38.1 Million

5.52x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ all EA): 49.7 Million

 

Guessing this will end up at around $35 Million or so average, but with growth rate comps being obviously terrible, I would predict something like high 20s, which would mean a Friday number of high 30s, low 40s ATP adjusted. We'll see these last two days but I don't think anything can really change, more capacity added (40 shows added in the last two days) has not translated into more sales and that won't change at this point.

 

The Marvels day 2 update coming in at 10/10:30 PM CST

 

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

Day: T-1 (6 PM onwards)	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	181	461	14568	25705	56.67

 

Day: T-1 (pre-6 PM)	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	37	148	148	5992	2.47

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	4.32
3-Day:	7.47

 

Comps, no adjustments:

1.64x Barbie (w/ EA): $36.6 Million (25%, 94%)

3.01x Oppenheimer: $31.6 Million (25%, 80%)

4.53x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ all EA): 40.8 Million (29%, 69%)

 

The average adjusted (45%) of my comps would be $52.6 Million. Of course, this assumes walk-ups that these movies had that this movie will not touch; usually I look at growth rates and compare them to get at a final prediction number, but I am truly lost at how to do that this time. I'll let more capable minds do that this time; I would guess a Friday number of around $40 million based on my numbers, but I think I'm overindexing this time around.

 

18 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

As for Taylor:

 

Thursday shows: 51 showings in 16 theaters (I track 20)

 

Update on Thursday shows: In the end, 64 showings in 17 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Thursday

44 Showings

447

+447

4715

ATP:

22.88

0.017	Thor L&T Thurs T-0	0.483M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-0	0.714M
0.014	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	0.497M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	0.731M
0.012	NWH Thurs T-0	0.576M

 

Drafthouse didn't really care to go all out last minute for Thursday

[Inceptionzq]

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

139

1408

9.87%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

148

1167

12.68%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
852	N/A	14475	5.89%	13	88

 

0.083

Barbie T-0

1.84M

Adjusted Barbie T-0

2.67M

0.070

Thor L&T T-0

2.02M

Adjusted Thor L&T T-0

2.93M

0.055

Doctor Strange MoM T-0

2.00M

Adjusted DS MoM T-0

2.89M

0.037

No Way Home T-0

1.84M

Adjusted NWH T-0

2.67M

 

Yeah this is just looking like a normal early access instead of actual previews

[vafrow]

19 minutes ago, Nomoras said:

 

 

Fixed the D-box double counting, I think.

So some theatres filled up pretty well. Surprising given the one day notice, and on a Thursday night. Bodes well for the weekend?

So I'm quite late with this prediction, but I think The Eras Tour ^{will outperform Barbie on every metric.} 

Rest of the numbers are coming.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iyPj8hG_gBps0BJSSq1Jk2R2Wt8P-1O-Xr05hBCWsf0/edit?usp=sharing

 

	Occupied	Available	Seats	Filled	Quartiles	Theatre Count	Showtime Count
Today October 12, 2023	2074	23070	25144	8.25	0|2.93|5.87| 12.93|50.45	108/155	124/125

 

 

 

That Google Doc is fantastic. This is great work.

 

Question: what time was the pull done. It's less than what I was estimating for the region. I'm wondering if it was done earlier, or if my guess work is off. Likely the latter, but just curious.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Kinda sad @Shawn took surprise factor of Marvels bombing to something like $50M away from the general internet public. Wish he stick to $70M ish.

[XXR & Friends]

For the Eras Tour we're probably looking at something like....

 

$3-5M Thursday

$32-38M Friday 

$29-35M Saturday

$20-25M Sunday 

 

 

[Derpity]

23 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Thursday

44 Showings

447

+447

4715

ATP:

22.88

0.017	Thor L&T Thurs T-0	0.483M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-0	0.714M
0.014	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	0.497M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	0.731M
0.012	NWH Thurs T-0	0.576M

 

Drafthouse didn't really care to go all out last minute for Thursday

 

Drafthouse seems like the worst possible movie theater to watch this. Are they relaxing any policies about cell phones or talking?

[charlie Jatinder]

Yesterday evening and today morning it looked like perhaps THU will add up to big sum but sales since today morning seems soft. Let's see how walkups go but probably nothing much.

If this continues for weekend as well, we may see something like $80-90M weekend.

 

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Taylor Swift MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

THU - 787/33601 (126 showings)

THU - 2177/34329 (130 showings)

As of 5PM. Final could be 3K+, that should lead to something like $3M I guess.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area PREMIERE NIGHT

(Thr Prev) Seat Report:  PREMIERE (THR PREV) MID-DAY REPORT [12:00pm-12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	155	18378	19180	802	4.18%

 

 

Total Net Showings Removed Since Last Night	1
Total Net Seats Removed Since Last Night	16
Total Net Seats Sold Since Last Night	321

NOTE:  One of the local theaters, understandably perhaps, set a couple of 2pm showtimes for today last night, which were subsequently yanked this morning.

 

Ain't gonna pull up the "I've made a huge mistake" Arrested Development meme for those theater owners expecting a huge amount of walkups tonight as for all I know it'll still do better than normal Thursday night numbers.  But if they were expected a rush to the doors, they might want a re-think.

 

 

 

(well maybe not theater owners who massively overbooked tonight, but *I* certainly did)

((post incoming in about 10)