The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Then this ain’t making 200 million domestic 

That depends on how it holds against Barbeimeir. That is going to make or break this movie's run towards 200m domestic. But for now let us see how the OW goes. I am hoping for something crazy with walkups due to universal acclaim its having. 

[WorkingonaName]

Billy may be dead, still hoping for $850M plus.

[katnisscinnaplex]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Do you have the show counts for Sunday/Monday?

From what I can see...

 

Sunday - 437 shows.  All standard?

AMC-204

Cinemark-131

Regal-0

 

Monday - 707 shows (659 theaters)

Standard - 187

IMAX - 239

Dolby - 102

D-Box - 54

XD - 96

RPX - 29

 

AMC-209

Cinemark-125

Regal-137

 

Top states

CA - 118

TX - 84

FL - 62

NY - 33

[charlie Jatinder]

MI7 TUE walk ups could be HUGE due to T-mobile deal. Screw Paramount for making one of the most anticipated release pre-sale run absolute joke & useless.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

From what I can see...

 

Sunday - 437 shows.  All standard?

AMC-204

Cinemark-131

Regal-0

 

Monday - 707 shows (659 theaters)

Standard - 187

IMAX - 239

Dolby - 102

D-Box - 54

XD - 96

RPX - 29

 

AMC-209

Cinemark-125

Regal-137

 

Top states

CA - 118

TX - 84

FL - 62

NY - 33

Awesome. Thank you. So Sunday should skew AMC big time. I am thinking closer to ~250K-300k for Sunday. Monday distribution makes me think AMC wont skew that much. Should come close to 2m between these 2 days.  

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

MI7 TUE walk ups could be HUGE due to T-mobile deal. Screw Paramount for making one of the most anticipated release pre-sale run absolute joke & useless.

So 125K possible at MTC1? That could ensure 8m+ previews. 

[M37]

Oppenheimer T-11 Preview Comp Update

 

 

A lot of mostly flat if not slightly increasing lines, indicating matching pace, and taking into account the clear over-performing markets, sure looks like around $8M to me.  Will also note, while we don't have a value yet, sales numbers are also very similar to MI7 at same checkpoints, which also looks to be heading towards an ~$8M or so true preview value (before adjusting for discount tickets).

 

Still do worry a bit that the oversized PLF draw here could slow down sales in the home stretch as those seats fill, but the floor is still looking fairly solid at maybe ~$7M

[emoviefan]

34 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So 125K possible at MTC1? That could ensure 8m+ previews. 

I refuse to beleive a movie with 99% on RT does not have huge walkups.  This franchise is made for walkups also. 

[M37]

On 7/5/2023 at 8:35 PM, M37 said:

Barbie T-16.5 Preview Update

 

Let me preface this first update by saying that I went ahead and excluded several comps that were over the top end of the scale on the chart - anything from Drafthouse [where ATSV and JWD have been comping around $53M !!!], as well as a few others (like Orlando vs Fast X = ~$32M). Also, the EA shows, while not PLF, may still inflate these values depending on how much relative capacity was allocated in each sample [I may go back and just pull Thursday only numbers]

 

With those caveats out of the way, I'm not sure there is much else to say, so here it is:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Let me know if the background color is distracting and/or makes graph more difficult to read

 

So many comps are still pushing higher, 3 weeks after tickets first went on sale! The flattest line in that grouping - indicating similar pace - is Sacto vs ATSV ... which is coincidentally right around where the average of this comp set lies. Too early IMO to really set an upper and lower bound, as it hasn't quite hit the bottom of the curve - maybe it never does? - and need at least one more @ZackM Alpha update

 

The absence of PLF (lower ATP) and lack of capacity will be limiting factors, combined with this being a female driven film may, and won't be surprised if we don't see the pace over the home stretch that these comps. But $10M+ preview seems essentially locked, and the ceiling on demand (even is seat supply can't meet it) has yet to be determined

Barbie T-11 Preview Update

I know much has been made of Barbenheimer, and while it was never officially a duel, comparing those two films at this point feels like the 1973 Belmont, where we just passed the mile marker, and Big Red - er Pink? - is "moving like a tremendous machine." Still rising against pretty much every comp, three weeks after tickets went on sale, the only question left is how special of a Thursday and OW we're about to see.

 

 

It's really difficult to overstate just how strong the pace has been at this point, but here's some indication, the rolling 7-day growth rate for all the major release for which I have Alpha data. The only films even close to Barbie's pace (growth rate) at the T-14/12 checkpoint are Avatar 2 and Little Mermaid, and Barbie has basically matched the former in total sales ($17M preview, but with PLF & 3D) and doubled the latter ($10.3M)

 

 

Unfortunately, being an outlier makes it difficult to comp, so four potential ways its could finish:

1. Somehow Barbie can maintain this elevated pace through the finish, and if there are enough seats, we'd be looking at 400K+ total tickets for Alpha and $20M+ previews
2. If it falls back a bit, in line with similar female drive Mermaid, then still have 350K+ tickets, and a preview in high teens
3. Has more of a blended audience, atypical fans who buy early but not right away, plus a GA draw at the end, and TGM/ATSV are the sorta guide, gets to 300K+ tickets, mid teens preview value
4. Due to audience skew and/or limited capacity, finishes more like Avatar 2, with a weaker final week and winds up below 300K and low teens

That puts the preview range right now at something like $13M-$20M+, but probably need to wait until T-7 to be able to narrow down based on pace

 

 

[Unfitclock]

Does anybody know what the Regal mystery movie will be tonight?

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

46 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

Does anybody know what the Regal mystery movie will be tonight?

On the Regal subreddit, the big guess is Talk To Me.

[Unfitclock]

@BoxOfficeFangrl if it is I definitely want to go see that

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[Eric S'ennui]

46 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

On the Regal subreddit, the big guess is Talk To Me.

What do you want to talk about?

[misterpepp]

On 7/6/2023 at 8:40 AM, datpepper said:

Strays new sale date is July 26.

 

Gran Turismo on sale July 10.

Sheesh, GT tix were delayed a whole week. Now the 17th.

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 2 T-2: 54.53% Awareness

Haunted Mansion T-18: 42.92% Awareness

It Lives Inside T-74: 17.64% Awareness

Dune: Part Two T-116: 34.26% Awareness

Killers of the Flower Moon T-102: 18.58% Awareness

Migration T-165: 12.22% Awareness

Bob Marley: One Love T-186: 25.86% Awareness

 

Barbie T-11: 54.86% Awareness

Final Awareness: 47% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 22% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 90M, 11% chance of 100M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 40M

 

Oppenheimer T-11: 36.76% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Original - High Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

 

Blue Beetle T-39: 23.24% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 51% chance of 10M, 16% chance of 20M, 2% chance of 40M

 

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Barbie T-11 Preview Update

I know much has been made of Barbenheimer, and while it was never officially a duel, comparing those two films at this point feels like the 1973 Belmont, where we just passed the mile marker, and Big Red - er Pink? - is "moving like a tremendous machine." Still rising against pretty much every comp, three weeks after tickets went on sale, the only question left is how special of a Thursday and OW we're about to see.

 

 

It's really difficult to overstate just how strong the pace has been at this point, but here's some indication, the rolling 7-day growth rate for all the major release for which I have Alpha data. The only films even close to Barbie's pace (growth rate) at the T-14/12 checkpoint are Avatar 2 and Little Mermaid, and Barbie has basically matched the former in total sales ($17M preview, but with PLF & 3D) and doubled the latter ($10.3M)

 

 

Unfortunately, being an outlier makes it difficult to comp, so four potential ways its could finish:

1. Somehow Barbie can maintain this elevated pace through the finish, and if there are enough seats, we'd be looking at 400K+ total tickets for Alpha and $20M+ previews
2. If it falls back a bit, in line with similar female drive Mermaid, then still have 350K+ tickets, and a preview in high teens
3. Has more of a blended audience, atypical fans who buy early but not right away, plus a GA draw at the end, and TGM/ATSV are the sorta guide, gets to 300K+ tickets, mid teens preview value
4. Due to audience skew and/or limited capacity, finishes more like Avatar 2, with a weaker final week and winds up below 300K and low teens

That puts the preview range right now at something like $13M-$20M+, but probably need to wait until T-7 to be able to narrow down based on pace

 

 

 

Putting this here more for reference, but, in my area (southern Ontario), current capacity for Thursday previews is limited to one screen per theatre for the most part, with some larger theatres having a second, but usually a small recliner theatre.

 

Cineplex confirms showtimes for the following week starting on Tuesday nights, so I can assess what additional capacity is given.

[titanic2187]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

~110K finish. ATP above does not account for discount tuesday and so I am thinking this will be just ~6m previews at best. THat plus W+ and Monday shows should take it close to 8m. Could go as low as low 7s. 

Is the presale cycle for MI7 this messy? Last few posts was hopeful and upbeating but immediately followed by tepid projections. I am confused by different interpretation that seem to firing in all kind of directions. 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is the presale cycle for MI7 this messy? Last few posts was hopeful and upbeating but immediately followed by tepid projections. I am confused by different interpretation that seem to firing in all kind of directions. 

I extrapolate based on data I understand which is MTC1. May be @M37 or @across the Jat verse can provide a more accurate read overall. I am just not impressed with overall or T-2 pace. It's mess due to weird release with 2 days of "early" shows.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I extrapolate based on data I understand which is MTC1. May be @M37 or @across the Jat verse can provide a more accurate read overall. I am just not impressed with overall or T-2 pace. It's mess due to weird release with 2 days of "early" shows.

 

It's also a mess b/c its core audience works all this week and it's got 80M $5 ticket codes ready to drop from TMobile on Tuesday - which will get used over the next 2 weeks...