The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Brainbug]

Barbie 210M OW
Oppenheimer 70M OW

Make it happen, box office gods.

[The Dude]

Hey guys, been checking this thread for some time now and you guys are doing an absolutely amazing job in accurately predicting OW's. Very interesting how you guys approach this. I was wondering (since I also see lots of numbers being thrown around on social media), what are these Oppenheimer and Barbie ticket sales really telling us? As in, real predictions. Or is it too soon?

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/11/2023 at 6:51 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	4138	32369	12.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

385

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1461	1747	83.6%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

6

 

 

COMPS

T-10

*Excludes any EA

 

(2.632x) of RoTB

~$23.16M THUR Previews

 

(2.583x) of Fast X

~$19.37M THUR Previews

 

(1.059x) of ATSV

~$18.38M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $20.3M THUR Previews 

 

Comp average finally over $20M. How high can this go? 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	4704	32369	14.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

566

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1472	1747	84.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

6

 

 

COMPS

T-8

*Excludes any EA

 

(2.940x) of RoTB

~$25.87M THUR Previews

 

(2.762x) of Fast X

~$20.72M THUR Previews

 

(1.153x) of ATSV

~$20.00M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $22.2M THUR Previews 

 

Keep in mind the $22.2M comp average does not include any EA 

 

7th straight day it's rapidly increased against comp. At this point I don't see how it misses $100M OW 

Edited July 12, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[abracadabra1998]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	4704	32369	14.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

566

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1472	1747	84.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

6

 

 

COMPS

T-9

*Excludes any EA

 

(2.940x) of RoTB

~$25.87M THUR Previews

 

(2.762x) of Fast X

~$20.72M THUR Previews

 

(1.153x) of ATSV

~$20.00M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $22.2M THUR Previews 

 

Keep in mind the $22.2M comp average does not include any EA 

 

7th straight day it's rapidly increased against comp. At this point I don't see how it misses $100M OW 

Haven’t counted Barbie since Sunday, planning to do so tomorrow and I think I might be in for a treat lol

[Flopped]

Lmao I guess it's the wrong time to ask about Talk To Me, it's alllll about Barbie rn. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/11/2023 at 6:54 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
97	1828	17595	10.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

144

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(1.141x) of Fast X

~$8.56M THUR Previews

 

Really great day. Looks like a $50M+ OW to me 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
97	2021	17595	11.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

193

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.187x) of Fast X

~$8.9M THUR Previews

 

Still increasing against comps.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/11/2023 at 6:57 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1236	19452	6.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

63

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.537x) of TLM

~$5.5M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1281	19452	6.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

45

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.532x) of TLM

~$5.47M THUR Previews

[Flopped]

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

~$5.47M THUR Previews

 

That's kinda huge, isn't it? I thought it would flop. 

[M37]

25 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Hey guys, been checking this thread for some time now and you guys are doing an absolutely amazing job in accurately predicting OW's. Very interesting how you guys approach this. I was wondering (since I also see lots of numbers being thrown around on social media), what are these Oppenheimer and Barbie ticket sales really telling us? As in, real predictions. Or is it too soon?

Oppenheimer looks good for $50M+ or so, maybe even higher 

 

Can’t really put a number on Barbie just yet, because it keeps growing against every single comp anyone has. But if someone projected say $20M Thursday/$140M OW, that may not be all that far off, could even be too low …

 

(But hold that thought until a little while later tonight 😉)

[Austin]

Is next weekend with MI/Oppenhiemer/Barbie able to crack into a top 10 overall weekend or something? I can't seem to find a list of the largest weekends at the BO overall anywhere.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Austin

[TheFlatLannister]

10 minutes ago, Flopped said:

 

That's kinda huge, isn't it? I thought it would flop. 

It's definitely going to overindex in Orlando-Melbourne-Sanford because of Disney.

 

Something like $4M previews $40M OW would not shock me. 

[The Dude]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Oppenheimer looks good for $50M+ or so, maybe even higher 

 

Can’t really put a number on Barbie just yet, because it keeps growing against every single comp anyone has. But if someone projected say $20M Thursday/$140M OW, that may not be all that far off, could even be too low …

 

(But hold that thought until a little while later tonight 😉)

Thanks! That really helps. I'll be checking the updates you guys post the coming days leading up to release.

 

Such an interesting weekend coming up, you guys must all be very excited about this! It's great that these two totally different movies going against each other might very well help both of their box office runs. I have a feeling Oppenheimer may profit most from this situation. Either way, cinema wins!

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

Oppenheimer looks good for $50M+ or so, maybe even higher 

 

Can’t really put a number on Barbie just yet, because it keeps growing against every single comp anyone has. But if someone projected say $20M Thursday/$140M OW, that may not be all that far off, could even be too low …

 

(But hold that thought until a little while later tonight 😉)

So what you’re saying is…..

 

My Detective Pikachu OW > Barbie OW Club could….potentially….be wrong?

 

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, XXR Electric Touch said:

So what you’re saying is…..

 

My Detective Pikachu OW > Barbie OW Club could….potentially….be wrong?

 

No, no, there's still a chance. I mean, what if a meteor hits the US?

[Bob Train]

Everytime a movie is compared to Detective Pikachu it become a huge hit

 

Happened with ATSV, Mario, and will happen with Barbie

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, XXR Electric Touch said:

So what you’re saying is…..

 

My Detective Pikachu OW > Barbie OW Club could….potentially….be wrong?

 

 

 

missed opportunity for actually appropriate gif usage

smdh.       

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It's definitely going to overindex in Orlando-Melbourne-Sanford because of Disney.

 

Something like $4M previews $40M OW would not shock me. 

 

FWIW I've occasionally glanced at it here locally, and...

 

Yeah, not worth it at the mo.  Might provide an occasional Q&D much later and $4m wouldn't shock me due to growth rates and what not, but at the moment it's not really moving the needle locally

[Cooper Legion]

40 minutes ago, Austin said:

Is next weekend with MI/Oppenhiemer/Barbie able to crack into a top 10 overall weekend or something? I can't seem to find a list of the largest weekends at the BO overall anywhere.

Very unlikely. Last weekend was 130, say holdovers to 75 and MI 65 is 140, then holdovers to 60+Oppenheimer 60+Barbie 150 is still a miss:

1	Apr 26, 2019	$401,994,732	Avengers: Endgame	$357,115,007
2	Dec 18, 2015	$313,076,133	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	$247,966,675
3	Apr 27, 2018	$312,340,779	Avengers: Infinity War	$257,698,183
4	Dec 25, 2015	$296,418,979	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	$149,202,860
5	Feb 16, 2018	$286,496,153	Black Panther	$202,003,951
6	Dec 17, 2021	$281,591,442	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$260,138,569
7	Dec 15, 2017	$277,940,566	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi	$220,009,584
8	Jun 22, 2018	$277,076,918	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	$148,024,610
9	Jun 12, 2015	$273,849,469	Jurassic World	$208,806,270
10	Jun 15, 2018	$270,884,807	Incredibles 2	$182,687,905

[misterpepp]

On 7/9/2023 at 11:21 PM, datpepper said:

Talk to Me should be on sale in a few hours.

 

This is actually on sale for most locations on Friday. Think there might've been a chain or two that put it on sale early as an error?

Edited July 13, 2023 by datpepper

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

missed opportunity for actually appropriate gif usage

smdh.       

 

I'll let James Earl Jones know you don't think his gif is appropriate....

 

Spoiler

Say goodbye to "

Resident Star Wars Shill and Apologist"