The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

On 7/11/2023 at 1:51 PM, M37 said:

Had an idea 💡, ran some numbers, worked something up. Gonna wait until after MI7 previews (and hopefully one more Alpha update), to debut it, but think it may be help shine some light on a certain preview expectation

Alright, time to delve into this a little bit. Gong to be a long post, so putting it behind spoiler boxes to not clog up  the thread. Grab a seat - maybe even a drink or snack - before diving in ...

 

1. Baseline

Spoiler

When I create and post the graphs of all the values vs comps, what I hope to see is 1) a lot of straight-ish lines, indicating pace is matching over time  & verifying comps are appropriate, and 2) the values are mostly clustered together, though some high and/or low outliers are common. For example, here is Oppenheimer as of the T-9/8 round of updates:

 

 

Clearly Denver loves Nolan more than Indy, Jax/Pho/Ral is starting to as well, Orlando isn't as Furious about Oppy, and the combination of post-July 4th and premiere reactions boosted sales (curved up) the last couple of days ... but overall that's a workable chart. Eyeballing approximately $8-10M preview from that (based solely on a visual ballpark guess)

 

2. Outlier (LOL)

Spoiler

Alright, so Oppenheimer preview tracking is fairly solid, still some wiggle room there, but what about Barbie?

Yeah, this ain't it:

 

Still growing rapidly against basically every single comp, and the spread goes from $15M to over $30M (not pictured), and that doesn't include the >$35M comps that are likely (probably. maybe ...?) not reflective of where this is headed and have been excluded. All we can really glean from this chart is that Barbie is going to be big, really big, but having no idea when and at what value those comps might level off (if not turn down) and possibly converge ... and we're only 9 days away from release

 

3. Hmm

Spoiler

Almost always, a huge opening has to be "4 Quad", that is appealing to both men and women, over & under 25 - its just really difficult to top $100M in a weekend without pulling in at least some decent amount from each of those groups. Oppenheimer is much more a 2 Quad film, (Dunkirk for reference was 50% Men over 25), but those kind of releases are fairly common - have JW4, Indy and MI7 since March - so there's plenty of comps to use.

 

For Barbie though, there really isn't much in the way of female-skewing big releases (Mermaid is the only one in last 2 years) - which changes the sales patterns, ie when tickets are purchased, and so the comparison at given checkpoints. Plus, even if/when Barbie may level off vs comps, there is an added layer of complexity of limited PLF shows, which will result in a lower ATP and reduce value vs comps

But, what if instead, sales for Barbie & Oppenheimer were combined and then comped for each sample. This first and foremost mostly eliminates the PLF/ATP issue, since Oppy has those (and is selling very well). It would also mostly correct for the Quad issue, because between the two films now we're now assuredly hitting all of the M/F O/U 25 groupings

 

4. Well Then

Spoiler

Here's how that method looks at first run, throwing a kitchen sink worth of comps at it

 

Certainly not perfect, Denver still going crazy and not even Barbenheimer can match TGM's early sales in Sacto, but overall lines are much flatter (again showing the same curve up in last few days), and while the spread is fairly wide, there's a good amount of clustering in the middle, including with averages. For a backdoor method, might be onto something ...

 

In particular, found this part of the data interesting:

 

While there's still a good amount of variation between markets, both the averages and ALL of the Alpha data points - a large sample across many, many markets, and unadjusted - are decently grouped together. (Note: for Avatar 2 comps, would have to adjust $ value down for a lower ATP, but also not expecting nearly the same flat line final week finish, so at this point in the sales run its IMO mostly a wash in actual value)

 

This grouping by the way, suggests a combined preview in roughly the $26-$33M range - on the level of the MCU big boys of BPWF ($28M), Thor L&T ($29M), and even Strange MoM ($36M) - and if Oppy does indeed stay in the $8-$10M ballpark, that leaves the remaining $18-23M for Barbie

 

 

5. Ok, but

Spoiler

Some caveats

• There just may not be enough seats for the demand implied by this method and track. We'd have to see showings and seats expanded up to Thor/BWPF level, and also be properly allocated between the two films on individual theater/market level
• Since Barbie accounts for the majority of sales (1.66x ratio as of last Alpha update), the growth rate curve will be weighted towards however it moves
• Typically, the number of people who purchase multiple tickets to a single preview night is very minimal, but with the Double Feature meme having become a reality, the combined total is likely inflated by ~5% or so
• The theory behind the combination method may prove to be invalid, so take it with a grain of salt

 

tl;dr

Spoiler

We're in range, if pace keeps up and there are enough seats allocated, of something in the neighborhood of $26-$33M of combined previews for Barbenheimer, with Oppy grabbing around $8-$10M of that, and the remainder being covered in Barbie pink

 

 

A $200M+ combined opening weekend is very much in play, though will caution that being without good precedent to light the way, cannot be assured pace will keep up and not tail off vs comps in the final week

Edited July 13, 2023 by M37

[Bobzaruni]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Alright, time to delve into this a little bit. Gong to be a long post, so putting it behind spoiler boxes to not clog up  the thread. Grab a seat - maybe even a drink or snack - before diving in ...

 

1. Baseline

  Hide contents

When I create and post the graphs of all the values vs comps, what I hope to see is 1) a lot of straight-ish lines, indicating pace is matching over time  & verifying comps are appropriate, and 2) the values are mostly clustered together, though some high and/or low outliers are common. For example, here is Oppenheimer as of the T-9/8 round of updates:

 

 

Clearly Denver loves Nolan more than Indy, Jax/Pho/Ral is starting to as well, Orlando isn't as Furious about Oppy, and the combination of post-July 4th and premiere reactions boosted sales (curved up) the last couple of days ... but overall that's a workable chart. Eyeballing approximately $8-10M preview from that (based solely on a visual ballpark guess)

 

2. Outlier (LOL)

  Hide contents

Alright, so Oppenheimer preview tracking is fairly solid, still some wiggle room there, but what about Barbie?

Yeah, this ain't it:

 

Still growing rapidly against basically every single comp, and the spread goes from $15M to over $30M (not pictured), and that doesn't include the >$35M comps that are likely (probably. maybe ...?) not reflective of where this is headed and have been excluded. All we can really glean from this chart is that Barbie is going to be big, really big, but having no idea when and at what value those comps might level off (if not turn down) and possibly converge ... and we're only 9 days away from release

 

3. Hmm

  Hide contents

Almost always, a huge opening has to be "4 Quad", that is appealing to both men and women, over & under 25 - its just really difficult to top $100M in a weekend without pulling in at least some decent amount from each of those groups. Oppenheimer is much more a 2 Quad film, (Dunkirk for reference was 50% Men over 25), but those kind of releases are fairly common - have JW4, Indy and MI7 since March - so there's plenty of comps to use.

 

For Barbie though, there really isn't much in the way of female-skewing big releases (Mermaid is the only one in last 2 years) - which changes the sales patterns, ie when tickets are purchased, and so the comparison at given checkpoints. Plus, even if/when Barbie may level off vs comps, there is an added layer of complexity of limited PLF shows, which will result in a lower ATP and reduce value vs comps

But, what if instead, sales for Barbie & Oppenheimer were combined and then comped for each sample. This first and foremost mostly eliminates the PLF/ATP issue, since Oppy has those (and is selling very well). It would also mostly correct for the Quad issue, because between the two films now we're now assuredly hitting all of the M/F O/U 25 groupings

 

4. Well Then

  Hide contents

Here's how that method looks at first run, throwing a kitchen sink worth of comps at it

 

Certainly not perfect, Denver still going crazy and not even Barbenheimer can match TGM's early sales in Sacto, but overall lines are much flatter (again showing the same curve up in last few days), and while the spread is fairly wide, there's a good amount of clustering in the middle, including with averages. For a backdoor method, might be onto something ...

 

In particular, found this part of the data interesting:

 

While there's still a good amount of variation between markets, both the averages and ALL of the Alpha data points - a large sample across many, many markets, and unadjusted - are decently grouped together. (Note: for Avatar 2 comps, would have to adjust $ value down for a lower ATP, but also not expecting nearly the same flat line final week finish, so at this point in the sales run its IMO mostly a wash in actual value)

 

This grouping by the way, suggests a combined preview in roughly the $26-$33M range - on the level of the MCU big boys of BPWF ($28M), Thor L&T ($29M), and even Strange MoM ($36M) - and if Oppy does indeed stay in the $8-$10M ballpark, that leaves the remaining $18-23M for Barbie

 

 

5. Ok, but

  Hide contents

Some caveats

• There just may not be enough seats for the demand implied by this method and track. We'd have to see showings and seats expanded up to Thor/BWPF level, and also be properly allocated between the two films on individual theater/market level
• Since Barbie accounts for the majority of sales (1.66x ratio as of last Alpha update), the growth rate curve will be weighted towards however it moves
• Typically, the number of people who purchase multiple tickets to a single preview night is very minimal, but with the Double Feature meme having become a reality, the combined total is likely inflated by ~5% or so
• The theory behind the combination method may prove to be invalid, so take it with a grain of salt

 

tl;dr

  Hide contents

We're in range, if pace keeps up and there are enough seats allocated, of something in the neighborhood of $26-$33M of combined previews for Barbenheimer, with Oppy grabbing around $8-$10M of that, and the remainder being covered in Barbie pink

 

 

A $200M+ combined opening weekend is very much in play, though will caution that being without good precedent to light the way, cannot be assured pace will keep up and not tail off vs comps in the final week

Combining them for the 4 quad and then extrapolating from each is really fucking smart. Great analysis.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/24/2023 at 8:53 PM, across the Jat verse said:

Barbie MiniTC2 T-27

Early Shows - 1628/2910 (10 showings) $26178

Previews -  615/37951 (160 showings) $7494
FRI - 726/68588 (276 showings) $8927

 

Comps (4 days for Previews / 3 days for FRI)

1.88x TLM Previews - $19.4M

1.07x TLM FRI - $29.8M

 

1.31x Flash Previews - $12.7M

1.26x Flash FRI - $18.5M

 

Barbie MiniTC2 T-8

Early Shows - 2968/3727 (13 showings) $47,415

Previews -  4979/53439 (232 showings) $59,669
FRI - 6806/87378 (349 showings) $80,019

 

Comps

0.63x Thor 4 Previews - $18.2M

1.08x GoTG 3 Previews - $19.4M

 

2.39x TLM Previews - $24.6M

1.84x TLM FRI - $51.4M 

Insane last three days of sales. Pace second only to DSitMoM.

 

[reddevil19]

What I'm choosing to get out of all this is that Oppenheimer does 10, Barbie does 20+, on their way to 50M and 150M, respectively, and the cinema apocalypse (cinepocalypse, if you will), is cancelled...well, delayed until Blue Beetle opens to 20 million and it's all dead again.

Edited July 13, 2023 by reddevil19

[charlie Jatinder]

Fri & Sat sales for MI7 are better, especially Sat. There is a good enough shot at 80m still.

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Fri & Sat sales for MI7 are better, especially Sat. There is a good enough shot at 80m still.

. That's weird how the 163 minute long movie that plays to a audience that works during the week might do better on the weekend. 

[charlie Jatinder]

15 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

SUN - $400K
MON - $2M
TUE - $6.75M

Will have fully confirmed nos. tomorrow. 

Discount day meant Canada over-indexing. TUE did $870K in Canada. US was like $6.3M nationwide previews.

TUE - $6.4M

Total $8.8M previews.

[keysersoze123]

When is Paramount including the early grosses.

[Algebra]

Am I reading this correct?

 

MI7 had a pretty average true Tuesday despite the discounts at $6.4m 

And had a Wednesday of $6.7m

 

Considering how early previews start these days and how the discounted prices boost sales, the fact that it increased on Wednesday is pretty good no?

Edited July 13, 2023 by Algebra

[Bobzaruni]

4 minutes ago, Algebra said:

Am I reading this correct?

 

MI7 had a pretty average true Tuesday despite the discounts at $6.4m 

And had a Wednesday of $6.7m

 

Considering how early previews start these days and how the discounted prices boost sales, the fact that it increased on Wednesday is pretty good no?

Maybe wednesday was wider?

[Inceptionzq]

18 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Thursday

298 Showings

1493

+547

4108

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Thursday

298 Showings

2121

+628

40696

 

18 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Thursday

352 Showings

4104

+1054

45182

ATP:

16.87

 

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Thursday

356 Showings

5193

+1089

45558

ATP:

16.64

 

Emagine is at 75.7% of Wednesday's numbers around the same time, and Drafthouse is at 97.3%. 

[Algebra]

4 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

Maybe wednesday was wider?

Yeah Wed is wider and Tuesdayys had 2pm start but still close to 30% tickets at discounted prices on Tuesday

[M37]

18 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

TUE - $6.4M

Total $8.8M previews.

Ok, that makes a lot more sense than the $7M figure Tue only figure that was reported 

 

Why is Paramount being so … weird with the preview numbers?

 

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

When is Paramount including the early grosses.

Im assuming they’re going to roll them in the weekend total. (Why, I can’t explain though)

[Austin]

33 minutes ago, M37 said:

Ok, that makes a lot more sense than the $7M figure Tue only figure that was reported 

 

Why is Paramount being so … weird with the preview numbers?

 

Im assuming they’re going to roll them in the weekend total. (Why, I can’t explain though)

Looks better for the 3-day I guess.

[vale9001]

 

[TwoMisfits]

If you're into horror movies, Cowweb is offering 2 free tickets through Atom to survive next weekend's gauntlet.  So, don't be surprised if this gets crazy presales today (COBWEBATOM if you want them)...it's while supplies last and only if it's playing in your area (mine is 45 minutes away and I don't do horror much, so I'm passing...if it had been at my Cinemarks...)

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

TUE - $6.4M

Total $8.8M previews.

 

On 7/11/2023 at 4:40 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

If was doing a straight call, probably be looking 10.7m or so. Maybe centered on 11m as I think about it.  But then there's Discount Tuesday, which is absolutely juicing the numbers.  The percentage of tickets which qualify for discounts jumped all the way to 27% of all tickets sold, so I have to slice a huge amount off the total.  Saw @Inceptionzq estimate a 30% slice off of Tuesday sales, but I think I'll go with a near 25% slice (which not quite coincidentally comes to a little more than 2m taken off the comp) and say 8.6m +/- .8m.

 

Large error bar due solely to an extreme ass-pull over Discount Tuesday.  Have no real clue how to treat it, really.  But taking off 2m to 3m feels right, so I'll go with that.

 

To put it another way, 9m+ won't surprise me, but neither would 7.5m.  Such is the havoc created by Discount Tuesday.

 

 

 

[ZackM]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:45 AM, ZackM said:

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	39	22	8	19	4
Seats Added	7,493	4,001	1,053	3,036	820
Seats Sold	4,255	4,348	2,769	2,338	2,464
7/11/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	426	1,421	64,762	277,487	23.34%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	11	43	95	142
ATP	Gross
$19.09	$1,236,307

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	21	39	22	8	19
Seats Added	2,521	7,493	4,001	1,053	3,036
Seats Sold	4,316	4,255	4,348	2,769	2,338
7/12/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	426	1,442	69,078	280,008	24.67%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	13	47	99	171
ATP	Gross
$19.03	$1,314,554

[ZackM]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:43 AM, ZackM said:

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	175	100	21	91	14
Seats Added	28,886	17,738	3,088	15,867	2,074
Seats Sold	9,499	10,100	5,242	4,217	3,932
7/11/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,387	88,556	394,273	22.46%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	16	67	156	292
ATP	Gross
$16.38	$1,450,547

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
7/11/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	18,968	20,668	91.77%
ATP	Gross
$21.18	$401,742

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	117	175	100	21	91
Seats Added	14,991	28,886	17,738	3,088	15,867
Seats Sold	9,910	9,499	10,100	5,242	4,217
7/12/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,504	98,466	409,264	24.06%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	19	76	181	352
ATP	Gross
$16.36	$1,610,904

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
7/12/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,122	20,668	92.52%
ATP	Gross
$21.17	$404,813

[el sid]

Barbie, counted today for Thursday = 7 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 230 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 505 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 90 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 110 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 188 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 724 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.094 (15 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.941.

So my theaters are no exception. The presales are great.
Comps (no comp fits perfectly at the moment): TLC had on Monday of the release week 306 sold tickets for Thursday.
TLM had on Monday of the release week for Friday 1.505 sold tickets (stupidly I don't have numbers of TLM for Thursday so I take the presales for Friday = 3 days left for Barbie but normally the presales for Friday are slightly weaker than those for Thursday.
And TLM's final number (= counted on Thursday for Friday) was 2.523 which means Barbie is already in front (with presales for Thursday but as mentioned the presales of bigger films for Thursday and Friday in my theaters are often pretty similar).
Minions 2 finally (= counted on Thursday for Friday) had 2.893 sold tickets, also for Friday but that means Barbie is also in front in that comp with 6 days left.
And JWD had on Monday of the release week 3.214 sold tickets for Thursday which means Barbie has 4 days left to overtake which very probably will happen.