The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Deep Wang]

13 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

Do you think review matters for Barbie? Unless it is something terrible, I dont think it will affect it significantly. If it is too positive it might affect its legs positively but not the OW. For instance, JWD got horrendous reviews and still had an amazing 143M OW but its legs suffered a lot. Personally, if I am not sure of watching something this big I prefer to wait a week since I dont have the NEED to go. Conversely, Shigeru Miyamoto said that he thinks that negative reviews helped Mario because it created some discussion... the truth is that we will never know.

 

 

We obviously don't have a window into an alternate universe to see how things would perform with different reviews, but I can't imagine a world where better reviews don't improve everything?  Not even just specifically opening weekend, but just in general.  There are always going to be people that wait for reviews.  

[ZackM]

16 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	16	51	10	21	39
Seats Added	2,426	6,296	1,280	2,521	7,493
Seats Sold	5,127	4,706	5,216	4,316	4,255
7/15/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	1,519	84,127	290,010	29.01%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	20	70	155	242
ATP	Gross
$18.80	$1,581,588

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	5	16	51	10	21
Seats Added	1,187	2,426	6,296	1,280	2,521
Seats Sold	7,651	5,127	4,706	5,216	4,316
7/16/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	1,524	91,778	291,197	31.52%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	24	78	185	284
ATP	Gross
$18.68	$1,714,413

[ZackM]

On 7/15/2023 at 6:01 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 413
Showings - 3,994
Sold - 151,654
Total - 671,192
ATP - $15.89

 

Saturday
Theaters - 415
Showings - 4,007
Sold - 111,984
Total - 674,211
ATP - $15.35
 

 

 

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 414
Showings - 4,133
Sold - 192,280
Total - 690,986
ATP - $15.66

 

Saturday
Theaters - 415
Showings - 4,123
Sold - 141,533
Total - 690,769
ATP - $15.20
 

Edited July 17, 2023 by ZackM

[ZackM]

On 7/15/2023 at 6:04 PM, ZackM said:

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 424
Showings - 2,695
Sold - 104,089
Total - 533,173
ATP - $17.46

 

Saturday
Theaters - 425
Showings - 2,701
Sold - 100,602
Total - 533,263
ATP - $16.72
 

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 424
Showings - 2,728
Sold - 125,971
Total - 538,162
ATP - $17.24
 

Saturday
Theaters - 425
Showings - 2,729
Sold - 123,803
Total - 537,857
ATP - $16.51
 

 

[vale9001]

 

37 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

Do you think review matters for Barbie? Unless it is something terrible, I dont think it will affect it significantly. If it is too positive it might affect its legs positively but not the OW. For instance, JWD got horrendous reviews and still had an amazing 143M OW but its legs suffered a lot. Personally, if I am not sure of watching something this big I prefer to wait a week since I dont have the NEED to go. Conversely, Shigeru Miyamoto said that he thinks that negative reviews helped Mario because it created some discussion... the truth is that we will never know.

 

 

Reviews and word of mouth are two separate things.

 

Reviews  can hype a little bit the First weekend but then legs are basically all on WOM.

Edited July 17, 2023 by vale9001

[vale9001]

from Thursday the conversation about Barbenheimer will reach its peak. Everyone would be there to say something about it, what's the best movie (so they're gonna see both or at least one of them).

Both movie will play at the top of the best possibilities they can reach. Walk ups will be over predictions for both. 

[ZackM]

39 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Walk ups will be over predictions for both. 

Whose predictions?

[vale9001]

11 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Whose predictions?

Everyone giving It under 150M 😇

Edited July 17, 2023 by vale9001

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-4	Jax	6	70	201	1,477	8,401	17.58%
		Phx	7	73	134	1,501	11,047	13.59%
		Ral	8	61	216	1,747	6,793	25.72%
	Total		21	204	551	4,725	26,241	18.01%
Barbie (EA)	T-3	Jax	2	3	11	252	319	79.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	202	208	97.12%
		Ral	2	2	0	175	190	92.11%
	Total		5	6	11	629	717	87.73%
Oppenheimer	T-4	Jax	6	28	81	746	5,083	14.68%
		Phx	6	27	56	693	4,102	16.89%
		Ral	8	28	68	755	3,427	22.03%
	Total		20	83	205	2,194	12,612	17.40%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Oppenheimer T-4 comps

 - JWD (Total) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - .631x (9.28m)

 - Avatar 2 - .515x (8.75m)

 - Matrix (OD) - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Indiana Jones - 1.75x (12.6m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.409x (12.4m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .41x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.8m 

 

Barbie (Total) T-4 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.256x (21.356m)

 - JWD (Total) - missed

 - Indiana Jones - 4.27x (30.74m)

 - Shazam 2 - 9.295x (31.6m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.062x (200.5m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 30.59x (22.33m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Oppenheimer - 2.44x

 

Size adjusted average - 22.94m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-3	Jax	6	70	275	1,752	8,401	20.85%
		Phx	7	73	190	1,691	11,047	15.31%
		Ral	8	61	306	2,053	6,793	30.22%
	Total		21	204	771	5,496	26,241	20.94%
Barbie (EA)	T-2	Jax	2	3	17	269	319	84.33%
		Phx	1	1	0	202	208	97.12%
		Ral	2	2	8	183	190	96.32%
	Total		5	6	25	654	717	91.21%
Oppenheimer	T-3	Jax	6	28	147	893	5,083	17.57%
		Phx	6	27	48	741	4,102	18.06%
		Ral	8	27	104	859	3,258	26.37%
	Total		20	82	299	2,493	12,443	20.04%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Oppenheimer T-3 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .496x (8.93m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .629x (9.24m)

 - Avatar 2 - .523x (8.9m)

 - Matrix (OD) - missed

 - Dune - 2.115x (10.78m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.825x (13.14m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.384x (12.18m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .405x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.46m

 

Currently expecting around 9m previews.  I would think ATP would be pretty high with the PLF skew, but maybe not as great walkups on Thursday due to length. 

 

Barbie (Total) T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.291x (21.95m)

 - JWD (Total) - 1.224x (22.03m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.088x (21m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 30.75x (22.45m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.277x (19.66m)

 - Eternals - 2.314x (21.98m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.467x

 

Size adjusted average - 21.3m

 

Barbie (Thu) T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.154x (19.62m)

 - JW3 - 1.295x (22.93m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.386x (20.38m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 27.48x (20.06m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.93x (17.57m)

 - Eternals - 2.068x (19.64m)

 

Size adjusted average - 20.23m

 

Current expectations... ~19m for true Thursday, but EA should push it well over 20m (maybe 21m total).  Lower ATP that will continue to decline as Dolby shows are running out of space.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-11	Jax	5	31	8	90	3,813	2.36%
		Phx	6	27	3	73	4,543	1.61%
		Ral	8	30	2	57	3,672	1.55%
	Total		19	88	13	220	12,028	1.83%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-10	Jax	2	2	2	45	395	11.39%
		Phx	1	1	4	58	208	27.88%
	Total		4	4	6	103	603	17.08%
Talk to Me	T-11	Jax	5	13	0	5	1,218	0.41%
		Phx	5	11	1	15	1,258	1.19%
		Ral	6	16	3	6	1,567	0.38%
	Total		16	40	4	26	4,043	0.64%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-11 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .721x (2.45m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .142x (3.26m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

 - Nope - .812x (5.19m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .613x (3.83m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .428x (2.57m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.589x (9.69m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.65m

 

Talk to Me T-11 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 2.167x (2.6m)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 3.714x (3.58m)

 

(I hesitate to put these with 12 and 7 tickets sold respectively.  One family could make a reservation and double the sales so it hardly means anything)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-10	Jax	5	31	2	92	3,813	2.41%
		Phx	6	27	3	76	4,543	1.67%
		Ral	8	30	2	59	3,672	1.61%
	Total		19	88	7	227	12,028	1.89%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-9	Jax	2	2	3	48	395	12.15%
		Phx	1	1	1	59	208	28.37%
	Total		4	4	4	107	603	17.74%
Talk to Me	T-10	Jax	5	13	1	6	1,218	0.49%
		Phx	5	11	2	17	1,258	1.35%
		Ral	6	16	0	6	1,567	0.38%
	Total		16	40	3	29	4,043	0.72%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-10 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .731x (2.48m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .134x (2.86m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.591x (5.21m)

 - Nope - .788x (5.04m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .595x (3.72m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .398x (2.39m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.151x (8.51m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.2m

 

Talk to Me T-10 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .172x (515k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 2.07x (2.49m)*

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 2.42x (2.33m)*

 

*(I hesitate to put these with 14 and 2 tickets sold respectively.  One family could make a reservation and double the sales so it hardly means anything)

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-16	Jax	5	40	-6	34	5,828	0.58%
		Phx	6	59	3	79	8,926	0.89%
		Ral	5	35	0	60	5,055	1.19%
	Total		16	134	-3	173	19,809	0.87%
Turtles (EA)	T-13	Jax	4	6	22	43	384	11.20%
		Phx	1	1	0	15	169	8.88%
		Ral	3	3	8	64	433	14.78%
	Total		8	10	30	122	986	12.37%
	T-15	Jax	5	7	7	63	961	6.56%
		Phx	1	1	5	49	208	23.56%
	Total		7	9	12	112	1,169	9.58%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Turtles (Total) T-16 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .267x (6.12m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .168x (3.021m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.04x (6.47m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.72x (7.99m w/ today's average)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.9m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-15	Jax	5	40	4	38	5,828	0.65%
		Phx	6	59	8	87	8,926	0.97%
		Ral	5	35	2	62	5,055	1.23%
	Total		16	134	14	187	19,809	0.94%
Turtles (EA)	T-12	Jax	4	6	7	50	384	13.02%
		Phx	1	1	0	15	169	8.88%
		Ral	3	3	0	64	433	14.78%
	Total		8	10	7	129	986	13.08%
	T-14	Jax	5	7	9	72	961	7.49%
		Phx	1	1	7	56	208	26.92%
	Total		7	9	16	128	1,169	10.95%

 

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Turtles (Total) T-15 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .27x (5.75m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .178x (3.21m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.09x (6.82m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.78x (7.45m w/ today's average)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.72m

 

[ZackM]

37 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Everyone giving It under 150M 😇

150M?  Combined?

[Tinalera]

13 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Haunted Mansion, southern Ontario, T-11 

 

Manual count of 53 seats. Same broader southern Ontario radius. Covers 31 theatres (63 showtimes)that have showing over a 120km radius, encompassing Clarington down to London.

 

I get that Canada is a completely different market on some films, but I'm still struggling to make sense of sales being this slow.

 

 

My own thoughts are that Canada for whatever reason just does its own thing, compared to US (and even compared to neighbouring cities lol)-they just have their own personality, logic just doesnt fit sometimes

[vafrow]

I think the review effect will be material, but not just a function of the raw RT number.

 

This is a film that people are genuinely uncertain what it is. It doesn't fit neatly in a box.

 

Is it a biting satire? Is it a fun summer flick? Is it something you can take your kids to? Many will get this info through word of mouth, but, many will look to see what reviewers are saying.

 

Something like Mario or JWD, people have a lot stronger sense of what the movie is.

[reddevil19]

13 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I think the review effect will be material, but not just a function of the raw RT number.

 

This is a film that people are genuinely uncertain what it is. It doesn't fit neatly in a box.

 

Is it a biting satire? Is it a fun summer flick? Is it something you can take your kids to? Many will get this info through word of mouth, but, many will look to see what reviewers are saying.

 

Something like Mario or JWD, people have a lot stronger sense of what the movie is.

Not really sure about that. I think the big red tomato or green splat is what everyone will look for - and the higher the number, the better, of course. Rotten could stop those on the fence and fresh will push them over. But I think most people still won't read the reviews to figure out what it is, beyond that. If it's not what they expect, it will be the weekdays and second weekend that show it, I think.

Edited July 17, 2023 by reddevil19

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

The Hill T-39: 14.32% Awareness

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-74: 27.49% Awareness

The Exorcist: Believer T-88: 20.09% Awareness

The Marvels T-116: 39.12% Awareness

Trolls Band Together T-123: 40.68% Awareness

Ferrari T-161: 16.82% Awareness

 

Barbie T-4: 69.94% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 75% chance of 100M, 25% chance of 200M

 

Oppenheimer T-4: 41.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 70M

Original - High Awareness: 40% chance of 30M

 

Blue Beetle T-32: 25.58% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 51% chance of 10M, 16% chance of 20M

 

Drive Away Dolls T-67: 18.73% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

[M37]

35 minutes ago, Eric Stickell said:

Oppenheimer T-4: 41.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 70M

Original - High Awareness: 40% chance of 30M

Seems really low given the sales volume - Oppy really seems to be riding Barbie’s pink coattails here 

 

Wonder how “Barbenheimer” would stack up on awareness? 

[keysersoze123]

Quorum numbers are bullshit. Even looking at Oppy presales before Barbie PS started, it was not looking like a sub 40m opener. 

[MightyDargon]

Why do people on here even bother with Quorum, anyway? It seems like a terrible metric at predicting anything.

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quorum numbers are bullshit. Even looking at Oppy presales before Barbie PS started, it was not looking like a sub 40m opener. 

Hopefully you are correct.