The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ZackM]

4 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Fairly soft final presales today.  Capacity may end up affecting walkups here too.

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Final Presales	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	65	166	1,006	624	54
Seats Added	5,070	14,965	122,030	79,586	7,383
Seats Sold	25,866	42,664	31,753	25,344	16,443
7/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	4,741	274,344	680,326	40.33%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	6	118	425	938	1,588
ATP	Gross
$15.64	$4,290,740

 

 

Barbie now up to 335k.

[ZackM]

4 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Also soft final presales.

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Final Presales	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	11	39	354	252	5
Seats Added	758	3,875	38,456	29,209	1,187
Seats Sold	12,313	19,374	13,868	11,661	7,651
7/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	2,180	148,994	363,495	40.99%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	3	67	229	431	619
ATP	Gross
$18.03	$2,686,362

 

 

Oppenheimer Comps
	Indy 5		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Flash
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0	$12.5	$12.8	$14.8	$16.0	$10.7	$11.0
T-1	$13.2	$13.5	$16.2	$17.3	$11.3	$11.4
T-2	$12.8	$13.1	$16.0	$17.2	$11.0	$11.2
T-3	$12.9	$13.1	$16.1	$17.2	$11.1	$11.2
T-4	$12.7	$13.0	$15.9	$17.1	$10.9	$11.0
T-5	$12.6	$12.9	$15.9	$17.1	$10.6	$10.7
T-6	$12.5	$12.8	$16.1	$17.3
T-7	$12.4	$12.7	$16.2	$17.4
T-8	$12.0	$12.3	$15.9	$17.1	$10.0	$10.1
T-9	$11.8	$12.1	$15.8	$17.0	$9.8	$9.9
T-10	$11.4	$11.8	$15.4	$16.6	$9.1	$9.2
T-11	$11.0	$11.4	$14.9	$16.0
T-12	$10.8	$11.2	$14.6	$15.8
T-13	$10.6	$11.0	$14.4	$15.5
T-14	$10.5	$10.9	$14.2	$15.3
T-15	$10.4	$10.8	$14.1	$15.2	$8.5	$8.5

 

Oppy up to 176k.

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Barbie T-0, Milton, ON

 

Early show update

 

At close of early show, walk ups have lead to 38% increase so far to get to 535 seats so far. I feel pretty confident it'll surpass Mario for highest ticket sales for openers I've tracked.

 

7.230x of TLM for $74.5M

1.579x of ATSV for $27.4M

1.005x of MI7 for $7.0M

0.959x of Mario for $27.4M

2.027x of GOTG3 for $35.5M

 

My numbers don't really align well to others, and Canada seems to operate very differently than the US it seems. However, if the Canadian market is just a rounding error to the domestic total, I'd round up.

 

I'll check in with numbers as final show approaches close.

 

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

T-0 Oppenheimer, Milton, ON

 

Oppenheimer continues to be really strong, for a film that only was available for pre-sales from last Thursday. It's doubled the comps I threw at it, and now comparable to things like ATSV that was a monster performer here.

 

Early sales figure of 297 tickets, up 46% from the morning.

 

This has 2 screens, but, only three screenings ( 2 early evening, one late)

 

 

2.160x of Fast X for $16.2M

0.873x of ATSV for $15.1M

2.467x of Flash for $23.9M

0.553x of Barbie for ???

 

With MI7 doing really well here after a month of things underindexing, I think I'm more confused about my market. Maybe people in my area really are into the Barbieheimer concept.

 

Finalish sales for Barbie is 545, so only a small increase from 535 at early show.

 

Oppenheimer wemt up from 297 to 319, so about a 7% increase.

 

For Barbie, ultimately, lack of capacity was probably a hurdle. It's a remarkable level for only 3 shows. A second screen would certainly have sold well. Capacity was 63% overall with a matinee show in the mix.

 

For Oppenheimer, it managed to sell 60 tickets to a late show on a smaller non plf screen. 

[charlie Jatinder]

In a world where every screen is IMAX, I think Oppy does $20M previews. Will end up a lot frontloaded though like those Potter or Star Wars films.

[TheFlatLannister]

Jat said ~$19.5M for Barbie on twitter

 

below many tracking projections here. ATP and capacity constraints played a major role. 

[ZackM]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Jat said ~$19.5M for Barbie on twitter

 

below many tracking projections here. ATP and capacity constraints played a major role. 

Final Alpha numbers will put it pretty much right at 19.5

[The GOAT]

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

In a world where every screen is IMAX, I think Oppy does $20M previews. Will end up a lot frontloaded though like those Potter or Star Wars films.

It’s that boring?

Edited July 21, 2023 by The GOAT

[keysersoze123]

MTC1 Barbie Previews - 357467/702711 5520636.35 4939 shows

 

Guardians comps takes it to ~19.85m. With early shows it should come close to ~21m. That would be my final prediction for Barbie previews. Its playing well almost everywhere and cannot do worse than what MTC1 is saying.   

Edited July 21, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Bob Train]

West coast should turn up big for Barbie imo just based on vibes

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

In a world where every screen is IMAX, I think Oppy does $20M previews. Will end up a lot frontloaded though like those Potter or Star Wars films.

 

Can you expand on what you mean about the frontloading? Your Twitter comment below mentions that it has good pre-sales for future days/weeks. I have a hard time imagining that it will be as frontloaded as some of the Potter movies. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Can you expand on what you mean about the frontloading? Your Twitter comment below mentions that it has good pre-sales for future days/weeks. I have a hard time imagining that it will be as frontloaded as some of the Potter movies. 

 

He probably mean Presales to final number. I think previews skew a lot to presales as it has the lowest show count any movie that grossed this much. One could point at Barbie but B+O had fewer shows than Thor 4 last year when the market was not empty and we were coming off Minions 2's huge OW and there were movies like JWD and Maverick still grossing well. 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

He probably mean Presales to final number. I think previews skew a lot to presales as it has the lowest show count any movie that grossed this much. One could point at Barbie but B+O had fewer shows than Thor 4 last year when the market was not empty and we were coming off Minions 2's huge OW and there were movies like JWD and Maverick still grossing well. 

Naa I meant that if every screen was IMAX, Oppy would be doing $20M previews as the demand that is now spilled over to 3 weeks would most likely be consumed in the first weekend. Its a hypothetical.

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Naa I meant that if every screen was IMAX, Oppy would be doing $20M previews as the demand that is now spilled over to 3 weeks would most likely be consumed in the first weekend. Its a hypothetical.

 

Ah, I see what you mean. Thanks for clarifying! Appreciate your reports on both movies tonight. You're like Alice Cooper in Wayne's World. The rest of us are Wayne & Garth bowing down to Alice. "We're not worthy! We're not worthy! We're not worthy!" 

[keysersoze123]

Oppenheimer MTC1 previews - 186098/378965 3271262.96 2262 shows

 

Even with huge over index I am going with 10m previews for Oppy. 

[Rageofthegods]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer MTC1 previews - 186098/378965 3271262.96 2262 shows

 

Even with huge over index I am going with 10m previews for Oppy. 

*banging table*

 

TWO. 10M+. PREVIEWS. TWO. 10M+. PREVIEWS. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Jat said ~$19.5M for Barbie on twitter

 

below many tracking projections here. ATP and capacity constraints played a major role. 

 

"many"    

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

any Barbie update

[Porthos]

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-12]

515/12025 (4.28% sold) [+44 tickets]

 

0.45335x MI7 at T-12           [3.99m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.28429x  GBA at T-12          [5.78m]

0.89410x Sonic 2 at T-12      [5.59m]

1.17045x Shazam 2 at T-12   [3.98m]

0.56223x RotB at T-12          [4.95m]

 

 

Gonna use @across the Jat verse's unofficial number for MI7 [8.8m] here since TMNT3 is also allowing Discount Tuesday pricing at various theaters, and that's gonna be far better than the 7m number that was given.

 

Also gonna use, for now, a few other comps but with a big fat honking warning about DT.  At the very least they'll be good for size comparisons.  If I care enough in the coming days, maybe I'll try to figure out an ad-hoc adjustment based on Sacto's MI7 numbers and Jat's breakdown.  Or possibly not, as it is a Q&D.

 

Next update probs around T-7 or so.

 

NB:  For those who care, the various EA showings account for 279 tickets sold, or 54.17% of all tickets sold so far.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 7/17/2023 at 12:59 AM, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Haunted Mansion Sacto Report [T-11]

391/7723 (5.06% sold) [+29 tickets]

 

0.90719x GBA at T-11            [4.08m]

0.63889x Sonic 2 at T-11      [3.99m]

0.72677x Minions 2at T-11    [7.81m]

0.88864x Shazam 2 at T-11  [3.02m]

0.20988x TLM at T-11           [2.16m]

 

====

 

TLM already had a few days of social media bounce (while HM was yesterday's) and Minions 2 is a special case.  Plus TLM over-performed in Sacramento.  Ignoring those two outliers and looking at the numbers without much of a sense of pace, 4m+ sounds plausible just from a quick surface level glance.  Any other thoughts will have to wait.

 

I'll do another check around T-7 or so (when I'll also have Elemental numbers to rope in) and see how much it changed, if it has.

 

Quick and Dirty Haunted Mansion Sacto Report [T-7]

543/7723 (7.03% sold) [+44 tickets]

 

0.73777x GBA at T-7             [3.32m]

0.59409x Sonic 2 at T-7       [3.71m]

0.65580x Minions 2at T-7    [7.05m]

1.08600x Shazam 2 at T-7   [3.69m]

0.22419x TLM at T-7             [2.31m]

1.77451x Elemental at T-7    [4.26m]

 

Didn't increase much here locally, except against Shazam 2.  But, as I like to say, Sacto Dark Magic does not necessarily apply to low openers.

Mostly coz I don't have a large database of small comps.

 

The Elemental comp might be the most promising of the bunch (outside of M2, obvs), given it was a low opener itself.  Could mean 5m+ is still on the menu, though if I were a bettin' man (and I'm not), I'd still be in the 4m-5m range right now.

 

Next update will probably be T-3, and then the rest of the way through Thr night (if I feel like it).

[vafrow]

On 7/16/2023 at 8:54 PM, vafrow said:

 

Haunted Mansion, southern Ontario, T-11 

 

Manual count of 53 seats. Same broader southern Ontario radius. Covers 31 theatres (63 showtimes)that have showing over a 120km radius, encompassing Clarington down to London.

 

I get that Canada is a completely different market on some films, but I'm still struggling to make sense of sales being this slow.

 

 

 

Haunted Mansion, southern Ontario, T-7 

 

More showtimes were added once they updated showtimes to next week, which basically added 10 additional theatres in my radius at 3 showtimes a piece. Unsurprisingly, no theatre has this on more than one screen.

 

Ticket sales went from 53 to 89. Still ridiculously low for a region that covers about 20-25% of the Canadian population.

 

It's a bit of a pain to count this manually, so not sure if I'll get in another update. I'm tracking it at my local, but it's still at zero, so not much to track.