The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Bob-omb]

21 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Haunted Mansion, southern Ontario, T-5 

 

I lied about not doing further updates. I need to put the Barbieheimer energy somewhere.

 

Sales up to 107 for southern Ontario. Almost one for the 123 showtimes.

 

As a general rule, I usually look at the major chain here, that has about 80% of the market, but being so low I took a peak at the secondary chain. It actually has a decent sales pace, better than what I'm seeing out of the primary chain. Not huge, but better.

 

It makes the low sales out of the primary chain puzzling.

Do you know (or anyone else) if Haunted Mansion (Disney) will request PLFs as a must?

Edited July 23, 2023 by Bob-omb

[vafrow]

29 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

Do you know (or anyone else) if Haunted Mansion (Disney) will request PLFs as a must?

 

Around my area, none of the shows are in the PLFs. Its in a number of larger auditoriums though. Based on local sales, I'm betting they're regretting giving them that.

 

In two weeks, Gran Turismo on pre-sales has a bunch of them. TMNT seems to have regular 3d  theatres and some Dbox. Meg 2 isn't available yet for sale.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Oppenheimer (Sat)	PLF	21	458	3,124	4,747	65.81%
		Standard	49	639	2,038	4,552	44.77%
	Total		70	1,097	5,162	9,299	55.51%
T-1	Oppenheimer (Sun)	PLF	21	378	2,230	4,747	46.98%
		Standard	52	350	1,265	4,817	24.93%
	Total		73	728	3,495	9,564	36.54%

 

Oppenheimer Sat T-0 comps

 - Batman - .448x (19.37m)

 - TG2 - .572x (21.75m)

 - JW3 - .331x (15.51m)

 - Avatar 2 - .546x (24.22m)

 - Crawdads - 6.292x (33.69m)

 - Elvis - 2.044x (20.295m)

 

Looks like the 23m forecast from yesterday is going to pan out.  Here are the adjusted comps based on that number.

 

Oppenheimer Sat adjusted comps

 - Batman - 29.23m

 - TG2 - 30.13m

 - JW3 - 29.85m

 - Avatar 2 - 28.89m

 - Crawdads - 27.33m

 - Elvis - 28.71m

 - Nope - 29.31m

 - Bullet Train - 29.03m

 

Solid Saturday of 29m in the works if Santikos is right again.

 

Oppenheimer Sun T-1 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .86x (25.09m)

 - Batman - .637x (21.73m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Oppenheimer (Sun)	PLF	21	743	2,973	4,747	62.63%
		Standard	52	799	2,064	4,817	42.85%
	Total		73	1,542	5,037	9,564	52.67%

*I noticed I missed updating one show yesterday (that wasn't on Fandango, only corp site), so I've updated the quoted post.

 

Oppenheimer Sun T-0 comps

 - Batman - .506x (17.26m)

 - TG2 - .609x (22.34m)

 - JW3 - .379x (14.62m)

 - Avatar 2 - .643x (23.51m)

 - Crawdads - 7.28x (33.74m)

 - Elvis - 2.16x (18.42m)

 

Using an avg of reported Fri and Jat's Sat est for adjustments.

 

Oppenheimer Sun adjusted comps

 - Batman  -24.07m

 - TG2 - 28.19m

 - JW3 - 25.75m

 - Avatar 2 - 26.06m

 - Crawdads - 26.14m

 - Elvis - 24.29m

 - Bullet Train - 27.7m

 

There's a wider range here than I would like to see, but I think the spillover is interfering with normal sales pattern for the chain.  Here are the comps adjusted by only Saturday (which I think will be more reflective)

 

Oppenheimer Sun adjusted comps (by Sat)

 - Batman - 23.21m

 - TG2 - 26.75m

 - JW3 - 24.56m

 - Avatar2 - 25.28m

 - Crawdads - 26.08m

 - Elvis - 23.64m

 - Bullet Train - 26.81m

 

Based on this along with the continued capacity issues for PLF, I'll go with 24.5m for Sunday.  

[M37]

46 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

Do you know (or anyone else) if Haunted Mansion (Disney) will request PLFs as a must?

It looks like yes, as tickets are on sale for Dolby (through 7pm) and RPX. Oppy still has IMAX though. Disney usually doesn’t push too much on PLF for their family films, but looks like no 3D on this one so they did 

Edited July 23, 2023 by M37

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Barbie (Sat)	PLF	41	1,275	5,644	9,467	59.62%
		Standard	165	3,048	7,722	18,317	42.16%
	Total		206	4,323	13,366	27,784	48.11%
T-1	Barbie (Sun)	PLF	42	570	3,419	9,621	35.53%
		Standard	174	1,311	3,951	18,728	21.10%
	Total		216	1,881	7,370	28,349	26.00%

 

Barbie Sat T-0 comps

 - Batman - 1.155x (49.97m)

 - TG2 - 1.476x (56.12m)

 - JW3 - .853x (40.01m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.41x (62.49m)

 - Elvis - 5.273x (52.36m)

 

Like Oppenheimer, Barbie's latest number looks pretty close to yesterday's forecast.  I'll use 48m for my adjustments.

 

Barbie Sat adjusted comps

 - Batman - 53.72m

 - TG2 - 55.39m

 - JW3 - 54.86m

 - Avatar 2 - 53.1m

 - Elvis - 52.76m

 - Nope - 53.87m

 

Assuming 48m Friday comes through, I'd put Saturday at 54m. 

 

 

Barbie Sun T-1 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.437x (52.54m)

 - Batman - 1.333x (45.52m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Barbie (Sun)	PLF	42	1,791	5,210	9,621	54.15%
		Standard	174	3,099	7,050	18,728	37.64%
	Total		216	4,890	12,260	28,349	43.25%

*I noticed I had missed the D-Box shows yesterday for Sat final and Sun T-1 that aren't available on Fandango. I've adjusted the quoted post.

 

Barbie Sun T-0 comps

 - Batman - 1.155x (49.97m)

 - TG2 - 1.476x (56.12m)

 - JW3 - .853x (40.01m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.41x (62.49m)

 - Elvis - 5.273x (52.36m)

 

Yesterday didn't really pan out with the adjusted comps (based on the latest estimate).  As others have mentioned, the spillover drove up the matinee show attendance which lowered the ATP.  I'll adjust based on Saturday estimate instead of Fri/Sat avg.

 

Barbie Sun adjusted comps

 - Batman - 39.9m

 - TG2 - 45.97m

 - JW3 - 42.2m

 - Avatar 2 - 43.4m

 - Elvis - 40.63m

 

I'll go with 40.5m for Sunday

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-5	Jax	5	31	15	143	3,813	3.75%
		Phx	6	27	13	135	4,543	2.97%
		Ral	8	30	19	102	3,672	2.78%
	Total		19	88	47	380	12,028	3.16%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-4	Jax	2	2	18	112	395	28.35%
		Phx	1	1	7	89	208	42.79%
	Total		4	4	25	201	603	33.33%
Talk to Me	T-5	Jax	5	15	4	25	1,311	1.91%
		Phx	5	11	12	34	1,258	2.70%
		Ral	6	16	4	15	1,567	0.96%
	Total		16	42	20	74	4,136	1.79%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-5 comps

 - Shazam 2 - 1.06x (3.4m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .121x (2.7m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4.18x (6.06m)

 - Nope - .925x (5.92m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .648x (4.05m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.246x (8.76m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.8m

 

Talk to Me T-5 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .282x (847k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 2.176x (2.61m)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 3.7x (3.57m)

 - Candyman - .705x (1.34m)

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 1.69m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-4	Jax	5	31	21	164	3,813	4.30%
		Phx	6	27	9	144	4,543	3.17%
		Ral	8	30	8	110	3,672	3.00%
	Total		19	88	38	418	12,028	3.48%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-3	Jax	2	2	7	119	395	30.13%
		Phx	1	1	21	110	208	52.88%
	Total		4	4	28	229	603	37.98%
Talk to Me	T-4	Jax	5	15	5	30	1,311	2.29%
		Phx	5	11	4	38	1,258	3.02%
		Ral	6	16	4	19	1,567	1.21%
	Total		16	42	13	87	4,136	2.10%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-5 comps

 - Shazam 2 - 1.125x (3.83m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .121x (2.7m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4.47x (6.48m)

 - Nope - .909x (5.82m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .635x (3.97m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.18x (8.58m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.84m

 

Talk to Me T-5 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.891x (2.27m)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 3.625x (3.5m)

 - Candyman - .685x (1.3m)

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 1.61m

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-10	Jax	5	40	3	57	5,828	0.98%
		Phx	6	59	4	102	8,926	1.14%
		Ral	8	46	10	79	6,080	1.30%
	Total		19	145	17	238	20,834	1.14%
Turtles (EA)	T-7	Jax	4	6	1	61	384	15.89%
		Phx	1	1	2	23	169	13.61%
		Ral	3	3	8	85	433	19.63%
	Total		8	10	11	169	986	17.14%
	T-9	Jax	5	7	11	115	961	11.97%
		Phx	1	1	3	76	208	36.54%
	Total		7	9	14	191	1,169	16.34%

 

Turtles (Total) T-10 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .24x (5.36m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.066x (6.66m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.79x (8.6m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .729x (5.25m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .712x (4.47m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.25x (5.64m)

 - Dune - .926x (4.72m)

 

Size adjusted average - 5.85m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-9	Jax	5	40	6	63	5,828	1.08%
		Phx	6	59	7	109	8,926	1.22%
		Ral	8	46	11	90	6,080	1.48%
	Total		19	145	24	262	20,834	1.26%
Turtles (EA)	T-6	Jax	4	6	-1	60	384	15.63%
		Phx	1	1	2	25	169	14.79%
		Ral	3	3	6	91	433	21.02%
	Total		8	10	7	176	986	17.85%
	T-8	Jax	5	7	4	119	961	12.38%
		Phx	1	1	8	84	208	40.38%
	Total		7	9	12	203	1,169	17.37%

 

Turtles (Total) T-9 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .22x (4.88m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.02x (6.39m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.71x (8.27m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .75x (5.43m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .709x (4.25m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - missed

 - Dune - .936x (4.77m)

 

Size adjusted average - 5.87m

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-19	Jax	5	30	2	11	4,872	0.23%
		Phx	4	18	9	31	3,705	0.84%
		Ral	7	25	0	7	4,074	0.17%
	Total		16	73	11	49	12,651	0.39%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-11	Jax	1	1	2	2	51	3.92%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
	Total		3	3	2	2	174	1.15%
	T-17	Jax	2	2	0	9	841	1.07%
	T-18	Jax	4	6	1	16	830	1.93%
		Phx	1	1	1	14	208	6.73%
		Ral	1	1	2	9	261	3.45%
	Total		6	8	4	39	1,299	3.00%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-19 comps

 - F9 - .268x (1.9m)

 - John Wick 4 - .202x (1.8m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .178x (1.57m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .495x (2.38m w/ today's average)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-18	Jax	5	30	2	13	4,872	0.27%
		Phx	5	23	4	35	5,736	0.61%
		Ral	7	25	3	10	4,074	0.25%
	Total		17	78	9	58	14,682	0.40%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-10	Jax	1	1	0	2	51	3.92%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
	Total		3	3	0	2	174	1.15%
	T-16	Jax	2	2	0	9	841	1.07%
	T-17	Jax	4	6	0	16	830	1.93%
		Phx	1	1	0	14	208	6.73%
		Ral	1	1	0	9	261	3.45%
	Total		6	8	0	39	1,299	3.00%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-18 comps

 - F9 - .272x (1.93m)

 - John Wick 4 - .2x (1.78m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .182x (1.6m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .517x (2.5m w/ today's average)

[ZackM]

On 7/22/2023 at 9:43 AM, ZackM said:

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday (Final)
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,542
Sold - 679,100
Total - 1,140,832
ATP - $14.21

 

Saturday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,807
Sold - 450,473
Total - 1,171,100
ATP - $14.04

 

Barbie Saturday and Sunday

 

Saturday (Final)
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,878
Sold - 719,696
Total - 1,177,669
ATP - $13.89

 

Sunday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,514
Sold - 408,783
Total - 1,129,112
ATP - $13.74
 

[ZackM]

On 7/22/2023 at 9:47 AM, ZackM said:

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday (Final)
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,299
Sold - 370,342
Total - 719,150
ATP - $15.64
 

Saturday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,325
Sold - 310,764
Total - 725,219
ATP - $15.37

 

Oppenheimer Saturday and Sunday

 

Saturday (Final)
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,347
Sold - 444,338
Total - 726,815
ATP - $15.06
 

Sunday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,189
Sold - 281,681
Total - 698,487
ATP - $15.13
 

[keysersoze123]

Both movies have tremendous presales for Sunday. I am hoping for low teens drop for both of them. Spillover effect would be ginormous for both. Even Monday numbers will be yuge. 

[vale9001]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Both movies have tremendous presales for Sunday. I am hoping for low teens drop for both of them. Spillover effect would be ginormous for both. Even Monday numbers will be yuge. 

 

 

for barbie around the 41-42M sunday  @across the Jat verse said? or do you think even more?

it's interesting to understand how near to HP record can go. With 41-42 sunday would be 8-9M from it. Of course can't beat it cause it would need a sunday on pair with saturday, but the most can go near the most is funny. 

[SpiderByte]

On 7/20/2023 at 9:57 AM, SpiderByte said:

I guarantee there's gonna be at least two studios who deliberately try to recreate this, what is basically a freak accident, as their actual marketing campaigns and it's going to be catastrophically embarrassing and it'll tank both movies 

NOT

EVEN

A FULL

WEEKEND

 

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Eric Prime]

53 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

NOT

EVEN

A FULL

WEEKEND

 

 

This isn't gonna work out. Even outside of the whole "when corporations force a meme, it dies" thing, who is going to go out there and look like a creepy pedophile going to see the new Paw Patrol? Nobody, that's who.

[SpiderByte]

Just now, Eric Bainbridge said:

This isn't gonna work out. Even outside of the whole "when corporations force a meme, it dies" thing, who is going to go out there and look like a creepy pedophile going to see the new Paw Patrol? Nobody, that's who.

Exactly. Barbenheimer is a rare example of counterprogramming resulting in people seeing both movies together rather than separate audiences. People aren't going to see the PG rated kids movie and Saw at the same day.

 

Unless that thing that happened with Megamind where they accidentally played Saw 6 by mistake happens again

[Krissykins]

Does anyone know how wide A24 are going with Talk To Me? 

[keysersoze123]

Looking at Oppenheimer presales beyond opening weekend. 

 

Monday - 87290/661480 1511194.76 3970 shows

Friday - 34105/304797 640157.13 1442 shows

Saturday - 46391/302013 808617.63 1419 shows

 

Monday should hit mid teens at this rate. 2nd Fri/Sat would be good numbers if it were opening next week for most movies. This is great for 2nd weekend 🙂

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Looking at Oppenheimer presales beyond opening weekend. 

 

Monday - 87290/661480 1511194.76 3970 shows

Friday - 34105/304797 640157.13 1442 shows

Saturday - 46391/302013 808617.63 1419 shows

 

Monday should hit mid teens at this rate. 2nd Fri/Sat would be good numbers if it were opening next week for most movies. This is great for 2nd weekend 🙂

What do you think for today’s number?

[titanic2187]

If both Hauted Mansion and Talk to me overperform, combine with some solid hold from Barbieheimer, we probably are eyeing for another $200m aggregate weekend.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

What do you think for today’s number?

Based on this morning I am seeing low teens drop. We have to see how walkups go. Oppenheimer walkups have been very limited as most big plexes in  large markets sellout entire day through presales. 

 

Example

Lincoln Sq - 4009/4294

Empire - 1980/2944

Metreon - 2290/2523

Universal - 2477/2784

Disney - 2102/2842

River East - 2135/2944

Boston Common - 3211/3722

 

 

Walkups are dependent mostly on smaller plexes in big markets and smaller markets. I see something like houston doing not so great with presales and has potential for good walkups.