The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 8/9/2023 at 8:13 AM, vafrow said:

 

Blue Beetle, T-8, southern Ontario

 

Ticket sales up another 16% or so in under 24 hours. As expected, return after the long weekend likely helped. Sales are at 221 , up from 189.

 

New showtimes are up, with there now being an additional 10 theatres to get to 48, and  showtimes up to 164. It appears that no individual theatre that had existing showtimes expanded, but 10 new theatres added it.

 

With no direct comps for broader area, I still am assessing at the local level. Sales went up to 13 after staying stalled at 6 for a few days. That gives the following comps

 

0.433x The Flash for $4.2M

0.650x T:ROTB for $5.7M

 

With my theatre making up 5.8% of sales, when it doesn't make up that much of showtimes or population base of my coverage area, I'd say it's overindexing the local market.

 

Still, it's all pointing in a positive direction.

 

Blue Beetle, T-7*, southern Ontario

 

*Messed up my calendar a bit. This is two days since last update, even though that's labeled as T-8.

 

Sales have gone up 43% since two days ago, which is very strong. Sales at 317. It's basically at the T-1 level of Haunted Mansion for same radius. I know that's not a great comp, but it's all I have for the comparable region.

 

At the local level, comps still look pretty decent. Right now it's

 

0.533x Flash for $5.2M

0.650x T:ROTB for $5.7M

 

 The population demographics are very different here than the US. For point of reference, Ontario's population is 1.8% latin American. 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/4/2023 at 8:01 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Barbie	3,271	84,803	-26.81%	83,606	802.72	1,197	0	0
Ninja Turtles	3,153	74,466		56,265		18,201	0	12,106
Meg 2: The Trench	2,826	67,894		51,314		16,580	0	11,859
Oppenheimer	2,969	42,208	-24.87%	37,970	831.34	4,238	3,806	0
Haunted Mansion	2,982	40,272	-34.90%	40,186	329.42	86	0	0
Talk to Me	2,086	28,391	-12.13%	28,376	275.91	15	0	0
Sound of Freedom	2,346	25,705	-20.35%	25,693	397.05	12	0	0
Mission: Impossible 7	2,004	20,403	-33.33%	20,346	346.39	57	0	0
Elemental	848	5,860	-58.15%	5,690	248.02	170	0	164
Theater Camp	509	5,404		5,404		0	0	0
Indiana Jones 5	864	5,291	-66.07%	5,285	254.78	6	0	0
Insidious 6	672	4,154	-70.31%	4,154	229.50	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

TMNT 3-Day - 74,466 (3,153 TC) (excludes previews)

 - Free Guy (F-Su) - 72,131 (3,318)

 - Uncharted (F-Su) - 73,998 (3,358)

 - Dune (F-Su) - 72,784 (3,318)

 - The Lost City (F-Su) - 71,896 (3,443)

 - Puss in Boots (F-Su) - 71,525 (3,434)

 - Super Pets (F-Su) - 77,320 (3,390)

 

The Meg 2 - 67,894 (2,826 TC) (11,451 previews)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 65,207 (3,216) (7,894 previews)

 - Don't Worry Darling - 66,697 (3,387) (9,054 previews)

 - Insidious 6 - 63,877 (2,774) (9,617 previews)

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

The Last Voyage of the Demeter - 21,520 (1,552 TC) (3,572 previews)

 - Last Night in Soho - 20,306 (1,787) (2,672 previews)

 - The Northman - 22,383 (1,935) (2,770 previews)

 - Prey for the Devil - 23,020 (1,732) (3,300 previews)

 - Talk to Me - 23,247 (1,431) (3,711 previews)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Strays (8/14 Alamo EA) - 32

Strays (8/16 EA) - 835

Strays - 4,756 (1,745 TC)

 - Easter Sunday - 4,712 (1,706)

 - Cocaine Bear - 4,967 (2,029)

 

Blue Beetle - 7,943 (1,726 TC)

 - Halloween Ends - 7,934 (2,126)

 - Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877)

 - Haunted Mansion - 7,500 (2,108)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Barbie	3,394	77,429	-8.70%	73,026	625.08	4,403	0	0
Ninja Turtles	3,228	59,235	-20.45%	48,582	376.11	10,653	0	7,357
Meg 2: The Trench	2,899	48,506	-14.06%	40,082	441.91	8,424	0	7,136
Oppenheimer	3,078	40,298	-4.53%	35,906	689.94	4,392	3,503	0
The Last Voyage	2,280	37,259		37,224		35	0	0
Haunted Mansion	2,518	31,129	-22.70%	31,068	228.77	61	0	0
Sound of Freedom	2,327	24,453	-4.87%	24,442	294.51	11	0	0
Talk to Me	2,102	24,088	-15.16%	24,068	220.92	20	0	0
M:I 7	1,833	17,547	-14.00%	17,498	324.00	49	0	0
Jules	752	12,726		12,726		0	0	0
Elemental	573	3,953	-32.54%	3,819	225.36	134	0	121
Indiana Jones	583	3,821	-27.78%	3,815	301.16	6	0	0
Gran Turismo EA 8/11-8/13	847	3,287		2,848		439	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

The Last Voyage of the Demeter - 37,259 (2,280 TC) (5,328 previews)

 - Last Night in Soho - 37,843 (2,701) (3,850 previews)

 - Antlers - 36,968 (2,572) (4,064 previews)

 - Talk to Me - 37,809 (2,113) (5,499 previews)

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Strays (8/14 Alamo EA) - 32

Strays (8/16 EA) - 930

Strays - 31,750 (2,083 TC) (5,417 previews)

 - 80 for Brady - 30,871 (2,381) (5,963 previews)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 31,725 (2,366) (5,366 previews)

 - Insidious - 31,621 (1,952) (5,785 previews)

 

Blue Beetle - 47,033 (2,293 TC) (9,789 previews)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771) (7,088 previews)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 47,052 (2,460) (7,633 previews)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (2,518) (5,790 previews)

 - Scream VI - 47,509 (2,548) (8,081 previews)

 

Gran Turismo EA 8/18-8/20 - 2,712 (687 TC)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Gran Turismo - 6,664 (1,574 TC)

 - Oppenheimer - 6,315 (2,375)

 - Scream VI - 6,937 (2,271)

 - Gran Turismo (Original date) - 7,244 (1,832)

[el sid]

16 hours ago, richyboycaldo said:

You said you are biased for this movie, so it is safe to say that your 9M OW prediction translates to a safe and unbiased 8M OW?

No, 9M OW are my real prediction. I meant that I think the walk-ups will be better than for Renfield. But I had no desire to see Renfield in theaters and maybe the moviegoers disagree with me.

[Eric is Quiet]

11 hours ago, datpepper said:

Equalizer 3 on sale this Tuesday

This better get a 38/103 run to fit the series' patterns. Otherwise, cancel the whole thing

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/10/2023 at 7:26 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-1	Jax	3	3	3	35	531	6.59%
		Phx	3	3	4	17	432	3.94%
		Ral	3	3	9	41	438	9.36%
	Total		9	9	16	93	1,401	6.64%
	T-2	Jax	3	6	8	20	1,508	1.33%
		Phx	3	6	8	19	1,066	1.78%
		Ral	3	6	16	31	760	4.08%
	Total		9	18	32	70	3,334	2.10%
	T-3	Jax	3	4	2	8	526	1.52%
		Phx	3	3	2	4	548	0.73%
		Ral	3	3	9	18	322	5.59%
	Total		9	10	13	30	1,396	2.15%
Last Voyage	T-0	Jax	5	17	24	76	1,688	4.50%
		Phx	6	20	29	94	1,958	4.80%
		Ral	7	19	28	84	1,886	4.45%
	Total		18	56	81	254	5,532	4.59%

 

Last Voyage T-0 comps

 - Renfield - .841x (715k)

 - Black Phone - .376x (977k)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .69x (1m)

 - Northman - .463x (625k)

 - Green Knight - .715x (537k)

 - Talk to Me - .715x (826k)

 - Beast - 1.1x (1.02m)

 - The Invitation - 1.358x (1.05m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 873k

Growth rate model forecast - 788k

 

Last Voyage pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Last Voyage	146.60%	46.60%	52.73%	46.82%
Renfield
Black Phone			26.67%	57.58%
Knock at the Cabin	117.75%	24.26%	22.66%	47.20%
Northman	90.63%	37.50%	40.00%	35.56%
The Green Knight	308.05%	42.53%	54.00%	53.02%
Talk to Me	275.49%	47.06%	42.59%	55.69%
Beast	192.41%	37.97%	46.94%	39.16%
The Invitation	356.10%			78.10%

 

3-day pace is all over the place for these comps.   Still a little conflicted on preview number; on one hand I want to go higher, but I still feel like this is an 800k kind of movie.  Something I found interesting - 15/22 of the R horror comps are under 1m, while every single PG13 horror movie I've tracked comps to over 1m.  For now I'll stick with my guns at 800k and we'll see what the final update brings.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-0	Jax	3	3	33	68	531	12.81%
		Phx	3	3	17	34	432	7.87%
		Ral	3	3	29	70	438	15.98%
	Total		9	9	79	172	1,401	12.28%
	T-1	Jax	3	6	9	29	1,508	1.92%
		Phx	3	6	6	25	1,066	2.35%
		Ral	3	6	22	53	760	6.97%
	Total		9	18	37	107	3,334	3.21%
	T-2	Jax	3	4	13	21	526	3.99%
		Phx	3	3	8	12	548	2.19%
		Ral	3	3	12	30	322	9.32%
	Total		9	10	33	63	1,396	4.51%

 

Big jump for this weekend's EA shows.  Should be plenty of WOM out there, whether for good or bad I cannot say.   First three days of EA finished with 413.  This set is at 342 with a couple days to go so they should surpass the others.  When all nine EA days are said and done, maybe there will be around 2m-2.5m total EA.  There are PLF shows this weekend, including IMAX and Dolby , but there are also matinee shows on Sat and Sun to balance out the ATP.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/10/2023 at 7:30 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-7	Jax	5	42	7	81	6,627	1.22%
		Phx	6	43	15	81	8,909	0.91%
		Ral	8	28	11	92	4,226	2.18%
	Total		19	113	33	254	19,762	1.29%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-10	Jax	4	4	0	0	821	0.00%
		Phx	4	4	2	2	544	0.37%
		Ral	2	2	0	0	155	0.00%
	Total		10	10	2	2	1,520	0.13%
	T-8	Jax	4	4	0	0	821	0.00%
		Phx	4	4	0	0	544	0.00%
		Ral	2	2	4	6	155	3.87%
	Total		10	10	4	6	1,520	0.39%
	T-9	Jax	4	8	2	2	1,642	0.12%
		Phx	4	8	0	0	1,098	0.00%
		Ral	2	4	6	6	310	1.94%
	Total		10	20	8	8	3,050	0.26%
Strays	T-7	Jax	6	15	3	21	1,897	1.11%
		Phx	6	23	4	22	3,053	0.72%
		Ral	6	18	2	22	2,703	0.81%
	Total		18	56	9	65	7,653	0.85%
Strays (EA)	T-6	Jax	3	3	2	5	352	1.42%
		Phx	3	3	1	2	403	0.50%
		Ral	4	4	2	8	506	1.58%
	Total		10	10	5	15	1,261	1.19%

 

Strays (Total) T-7 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.5x (1.25m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .93x (1.02m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .833x (625k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .485x (970k)

 - Violent Night - missed 

 - Turtles (Total) - .1x (560k)

 

Size adjusted average - 941k

 

Blue Beetle T-7 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.54x (3.08m)

 - Bullet Train - .937x (3.14m)

 - Turtles - .825x (3.18m)

 - Suicide Squad - .641x (2.63m)

 - Shazam 2 - .512x (1.74m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Flash - .17x (1.64m)

 - Morbius - .324x (1.85m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.89m

 

Blue Beetle and Last Voyage were both at 254 tickets sold today.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-6	Jax	5	42	12	93	6,627	1.40%
		Phx	6	43	14	95	8,909	1.07%
		Ral	8	28	25	117	4,226	2.77%
	Total		19	113	51	305	19,762	1.54%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-7	Jax	4	4	0	0	821	0.00%
		Phx	4	4	2	2	544	0.37%
		Ral	2	2	-2	4	155	2.58%
	Total		10	10	0	6	1,520	0.39%
	T-8	Jax	4	8	0	2	1,642	0.12%
		Phx	4	8	0	0	1,098	0.00%
		Ral	2	4	2	8	310	2.58%
	Total		10	20	2	10	3,050	0.33%
	T-9	Jax	4	4	0	0	821	0.00%
		Phx	4	4	-1	1	544	0.18%
		Ral	2	2	0	0	155	0.00%
	Total		10	10	-1	1	1,520	0.07%
Strays	T-6	Jax	6	15	2	23	1,897	1.21%
		Phx	6	23	3	25	3,053	0.82%
		Ral	6	18	0	22	2,703	0.81%
	Total		18	56	5	70	7,653	0.91%
Strays (EA)	T-5	Jax	3	3	0	5	352	1.42%
		Phx	3	3	0	2	403	0.50%
		Ral	4	4	9	17	506	3.36%
	Total		10	10	9	24	1,261	1.90%

 

Not much reason to buy GT EA tickets this far out since there are shows this weekend.  We'll see if WOM is good and they pick up next week.

 

Strays (Total) T-6 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.043x (1.02m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .887x (975k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .817x (613k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .577x (1.15m)

 - Violent Night - missed 

 - Turtles (Total) - .103x (577k)

 

Size adjusted average - 910k

 

Blue Beetle T-6 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.87x (3.74m)

 - Bullet Train - .956x (3.2m)

 - Turtles - .866x (3.34m)

 - Suicide Squad - .718x (2.94m)

 - Shazam 2 - .589x (2m)

 - Black Adam - .255x (1.93m)

 - Flash - .19x (1.85m)

 - Morbius - .364x (2.07m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.09m

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Retribution T-15: 27.95% Awareness

Bottoms T-22: 13.34% Awareness

Dumb Money T-43: 14.34% Awareness

The Creator T-50: 12.65% Awareness

Killers of the Flower Moon T-71: 20.67% Awareness

Five Nights at Freddy's T-78: 33.75% Awareness

Dune Part Two T-85: 35.71% Awareness

Journey to Bethlehem T-92: 12.95% Awareness

Wonka T-127: 51.75% Awareness

 

The Last Voyage of the Demeter T-1: 33.49% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 10% chance of 20M

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Eric the Turtle said:

Quorum Updates

 

The Creator T-50: 12.65%

 

Ouch. 
 

Glad to see I’m clearly not the only one who had never heard of the Journey to Bethlehem then. 

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Ouch. 
 

Glad to see I’m clearly not the only one who had never heard of the Journey to Bethlehem then. 

That is depressing. Original sci-fi does not stand a chance. Maybe they should have kept the orginal title of True Love as if that would help. At the same time I still think the Qurom is still a dubious at best. 

[filmlover]

True Love would've been an awful title for a sci-fi action thriller. The Creator, while more generic, is at least more marquee-friendly. 

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

True Love would've been an awful title for a sci-fi action thriller. The Creator, while more generic, is at least more marquee-friendly. 

yeah well it does not seem to have helped. There have been two trailers for this thing in front of the biggest movies of the summer and 12% is all it can muster. Really shows how stuff can just wash over Casual moviegoers and not make any impact. 

[Tinalera]

Edit:

 

Just wanted to re write this to be simpler-Im trying to start a fresh count for Gran Turismo-and I pretty much have a wasteland of seats lol

Edited August 11, 2023 by Tinalera

[abracadabra1998]

20 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Last Voyage of the Demeter (T-1 hour):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	49	74	212	4361	4.86

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	53.62
3-Day:	207.25

 

Comps (1 and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.18x Insidious Red Door: $878k (1-day: 189%, 3-day: 520%)

 

I only have a T-1 hour comp for Insidious unfortunately, but a 53% last day growth rate is not good for horror. I'm gonna put in my prediction at $800k, +/-50k.

 

It’s within my range, I’ll claim the W on it 😎

 

[Dlund87]

Blue Beetle Social reactions appear to be really positive. Hopefully we start seeing a big boost in pre sales!

[Megajohn01]

5 minutes ago, Dlund87 said:

Blue Beetle Social reactions appear to be really positive. Hopefully we start seeing a big boost in pre sales!

The social media reactions are oddly mirroring that of Shazam 2 so I wouldn’t hold my breath on big boost. If reactions didn’t help The Flash, they ain’t helping Blue Beetle. 

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

yeah well it does not seem to have helped. There have been two trailers for this thing in front of the biggest movies of the summer and 12% is all it can muster. Really shows how stuff can just wash over Casual moviegoers and not make any impact. 

To be fair, it is an original sci-fi movie that isn't a star vehicle. The final weeks of marketing + reviews will be what ultimately makes or breaks it.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, it is an original sci-fi movie that isn't a star vehicle. The final weeks of marketing + reviews will be what ultimately makes or breaks it.

Most likely. 

[excel1]

1 hour ago, Megajohn01 said:

The social media reactions are oddly mirroring that of Shazam 2 so I wouldn’t hold my breath on big boost. If reactions didn’t help The Flash, they ain’t helping Blue Beetle. 

 

Honestly, BB and Flash are on opposite ends of the spectrum approaching review release. FLASH was still predicted for $100m-140m range on THEORY prior to the start of critic review releases which was abnormally early in their cycle. If anything, BB is poised to benefit from extremely low expectations. 

Edited August 11, 2023 by excel1

[Megajohn01]

5 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Honestly, BB and Flash are on opposite ends of the spectrum approaching review release. FLASH was still predicted for $100m-140m range on THEORY prior to the start of critic review releases which was abnormally early in their cycle. If anything, BB is poised to benefit from extremely low expectations. 

If the review embargo wasn’t dropping the same day as the film’s international rollout, I’d agree that it would indeed benefit Blue Beetle but given DC films’ General track record critically and audience wise, as well

as the ongoing strikes, Blue Beetle is DOA

[MovieMan89]

Blue Beetle seems like a huge missed opportunity to tap into the Hispanic audience effectively (aka the demo that drives modern blockbusters the most). If the movie was actually high quality and they pushed the representation aspect harder in marketing, it could have probably been a huge breakout.