The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[CoolioD1]

Should've released it the next week. KillEras of the flower moon would've been the next Barbenheimer.

[Madhuvan]

6 minutes ago, Eric McCall said:

Don't think so. If there's public information about this Eras theatrical release, feel free to make one.

Oh thanks , she announced it

Ig we can make it then 

[Eric Prime]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Does Taylor herself announcing it count as “public information”? 😂

 

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

Guys, I'm not always on social media. I don't think I even follow Swift on social media 😆

[VanillaSkies]

This is already selling crazy around me and tickets have only been on sale for like 30 mins. For example, a 7:30 show has 168 tickets sold already in Toronto. This is going to be huge. 
 

And all adult tickets at $19.89 is going to be a nice ATP. $13.13 for children.

 

she is also releasing her new re-recorded album on Oct 27th, so both events will hype each other. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by VanillaSkies

[Bobzaruni]

The taylor movie is gonna be a giant, legitimately $200m dom with a 70m+ opening is in the cards

[filmlover]

At what time did the tickets for this go on sale? Because it's already almost completely selling out the PLF shows near me.

[WrathOfHan]

Managed to get IMAX tickets. I'm sure more PLF will be added; Exorcist won't be selling this much

[M37]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

At what time did the tickets for this go on sale? Because it's already almost completely selling out the PLF shows near me.

Like 8am ET? Swift’s tweet was at 8:19a, not sure if they were live before or after that 

 

I’m still only seeing some sites & chains on sale too through Fandango, Corp sites may have the full slate 

[vafrow]

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, southern Ontario, D1, hour 2, T-44

 

Total sales:  5620

New Sales: 5620

Growth from yesterday: n/a

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  198

Tickets per showtime: 28.384

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

I have nothing that can really serve as a comp on this. Even things I tracked at a local level that were big like ATSV or Barbie did not have starts like this. My D1 on ATSV locally was 24 sales compared to 86 for hour 2 locally here, and doesn't take into account the ticket price.

 

Barbie locally was slow, as it got added after other theatres, so it's no help.

 

To provide context and scale though, comparing TSwifts hour 2 figure (at over six weeks out) to morning of figures for other recent movies over the same radius.

 

4.84x T-1 Blue Beetle

6.33x T-1 Equalizer

7.97x T-1 Gran Turismo

 

My figures are also so out of date, that when I've lost count, i can't go back and double check a number because it's changing so rapidly.

 

I think it's safe to say we have our next event film.

Edited August 31, 2023 by vafrow

[Ezen Baklattan]

19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Managed to get IMAX tickets. I'm sure more PLF will be added; Exorcist won't be selling this much

In general I think Horror is less PLF-dependent than a lot of people think. Hell, Evil Dead Rise came just shy of $25m in standard formats only.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Ezen Baklattan said:

In general I think Horror is less PLF-dependent than a lot of people think. Hell, Evil Dead Rise came just shy of $25m in standard formats only.

The last two Halloween films were terrible sellers in IMAX/Dolby despite large openings. It doesn't make sense to give Exorcist more than 1-2 shows per screen with Eras now.

[Madhuvan]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, southern Ontario, D1, hour 2, T-44

 

Total sales:  5620

New Sales: 5620

Growth from yesterday: n/a

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  198

Tickets per showtime: 28.384

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

I have nothing that can really serve as a comp on this. Even things I tracked at a local level that were big like ATSV or Barbie did not have starts like this. My D1 on ATSV locally was 24 sales compared to 86 for hour 2 locally here, and doesn't take into account the ticket price.

 

Barbie locally was slow, as it got added after other theatres, so it's no help.

 

To provide context and scale though, comparing TSwifts hour 2 figure (at over six weeks out) to morning of figures for other recent movies over the same radius.

 

4.84x T-1 Blue Beetle

6.33x T-1 Equalizer

7.97x T-1 Gran Turismo

 

My figures are also so out of date, that when I've lost count, i can't go back and double check a number because it's changing so rapidly.

 

I think it's safe to say we have our next event film.

Let's see if it will have legs or not

Which is difficult for such a high profile tour already in the news for months 

 

I think Weekend will be really good

[filmlover]

Business for Exorcist is bound to be on the dead side during the day anyway, regardless of format. Makes sense to give those showtimes to something that is bound to fill up.

[JustLurking]

would keep in mind this will probably be one of the most presales-heavy "films" the tracking thread has ever seen, so largely useless trying to project or comp to anything (considering how concerts go, there might even be some scalping going on); still this will obviously be a pretty big thing

[Madhuvan]

Just now, JustLurking said:

would keep in mind this will probably be one of the most presales-heavy "films" the tracking thread has ever seen, so largely useless trying to project or comp to anything (considering how concerts go, there might even be some scalping going on); still this will obviously be a pretty big thing

Yeah I don't see the usual pattern here

 

This film won't depend on reviews or wom. People who like/love Taylor will go and others mostly won't unless it becomes bigger than expected 

 

So Presales will die down from tomorrow onward 

[abracadabra1998]

Would the best comp here be… Barbie? Female icon and focused and all that. It’ll be way more frontloaded than that of course

[filmlover]

Comps will probably be completely useless here when we have no idea how many theaters it will be in. Reasonable to assume it won't be a 3,000+ release when only the major chains are on board so far (though that could obviously change).

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Comps will probably be completely useless here when we have no idea how many theaters it will be in. Reasonable to assume it won't be a 3,000+ release when only the major chains are on board so far (though that could obviously change).

Those are the chains that bring in the vast majority of revenue though.

[vafrow]

13 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Let's see if it will have legs or not

Which is difficult for such a high profile tour already in the news for months 

 

I think Weekend will be really good

 

From a quick peek, Saturday sales are expectedly slower. But, given how strong sales are in the opening hours, it's going to push sales to Saturday and Sunday. And decision to keep run this only on weekends will soften weekly drops.

 

It's a unique case, but, when the initial reaction I had is that I wished I had No Way Home as a comp, it's a pretty good sign.

 

Other caveat that I would add is that with Toronto just having landed the Eras closing tour dates, for which the vast majority of fans in the region tried and failed to get tickets, hype for Taylor Swift is probably at an all time high here. It's been a major topic of conversation in local media for the last month. It's possible that this area may over index, however, I think it's safe to say hype is high everywhere.

[motionpic05]

Exorcist should really move. It’s going to get destroyed.