The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[DisposedData]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

Sure she has fans in their 30s, but I don't think they are the main ones going to her concert movie. Maybe they buy her newest albums, but this movie is going to be attracting mainly her younger audiences.

Her older audience are the diehards though and they have been there since her debut. I would think they would be the ones buying these as well.

[Madhuvan]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

Sure she has fans in their 30s, but I don't think they are the main ones going to her concert movie. Maybe they buy her newest albums, but this movie is going to be attracting mainly her younger audiences.

Her concert audience was mostly in 20s and 30s

She isn't a new act. But yeah Kids will be there but I don't think relatively more

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Sure she has fans in their 30s, but I don't think they are the main ones going to her concert movie. Maybe they buy her newest albums, but this movie is going to be attracting mainly her younger audiences.

This is an out of touch take.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I think considering the presales, everyone is buying a ticket...

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

14 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Probably don't think it's worth it? TS fans are I imagine mainly little girls/tweens and they will all be too busy in school on the weekdays that theaters aren't going to bother with Mon-Wed showings where maybe 2-3 people show up.

I don't think you can get as big as Taylor without attracting the GA, just from looking at some demographic breakdowns she seems to be biggest among millennials

https://pro.morningconsult.com/instant-intel/taylor-swift-fandom-demographic

granted this is only looking at the demographics of adults so excludes children entirely, but I doubt that group is overwhelmingly large when the gen z group is significantly smaller than the millennial group. 

 

Justin Bieber on the other hand WAS huge among teenage girls back in 2011, his concert movie had a 73% Sun -> Mon drop which could still be $5-10m for Taylor's movie if it opens as big as the early presale numbers are indicating.

[SpiderByte]

I think this is going to be extremely frontloaded

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Probably don't think it's worth it? TS fans are I imagine mainly little girls/tweens and they will all be too busy in school on the weekdays that theaters aren't going to bother with Mon-Wed showings where maybe 2-3 people show up.

 

12 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Sure she has fans in their 30s, but I don't think they are the main ones going to her concert movie. Maybe they buy her newest albums, but this movie is going to be attracting mainly her younger audiences.

 

Just judging by how many Swifties of various ages (including many women in their 50s) I see on Baseball Twitter, of all places, you would be very very very wrong with this take.

 

Taylor Swift might have first only appealed to Tweens, but she long ago broke out of that demo and is a legitimate all ages superstar.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Porthos

[upriser7]

I just checked a nearby AMC in Minneapolis suburbs area and all the allotted 8 shows on Friday are pretty much full except few wheelchair seats...just insane

 

I didn't count exact number of seats but here are rough numbers

 

Friday - 800 tickets sold (8 shows - 98%+ occupancy)

Saturday - 1300 tickets sold (14 shows  - 85% occupancy)

 

I never tracked numbers for other movies here but this doesn't strike to me as a very frontloaded movie. It's gonna have lot of spillover demand

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by upriser7

[upriser7]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I don't think you can get as big as Taylor without attracting the GA, just from looking at some demographic breakdowns she seems to be biggest among millennials

https://pro.morningconsult.com/instant-intel/taylor-swift-fandom-demographic

granted this is only looking at the demographics of adults so excludes children entirely, but I doubt that group is overwhelmingly large when the gen z group is significantly smaller than the millennial group. 

 

Justin Bieber on the other hand WAS huge among teenage girls back in 2011, his concert movie had a 73% Sun -> Mon drop which could still be $5-10m for Taylor's movie if it opens as big as the early presale numbers are indicating.

Taylor Swift's median fan is probably a millennial liberal white woman

[Cmasterclay]

They should change the subtitle of the new Exorcist from Believer to Exorcist: The Eras Tour to try to bring in some overflow business. Makes just as much sense, too.

[Mojoguy]

I haven't being following TS career that much, but I guess I should have accounted for those that grew up on her. I suppose it will be younger adults and teens that will be making most of the audience. There could be less interest from the 40+ age group who are not interested in concert films.

[TheFlatLannister]

6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I think this is going to be extremely frontloaded

Oh defintely, but OW is shaping up to be such a monster it could have terrible legs and still be a success. 

[keysersoze123]

 @Porthos I hope you will start tracking Eras tours sales in Sacramento. Friday seems more like "previews" to me. At MTC1 I see ~2800 shows while saturday have 5407 shows !!!

[Hilts]

Okay Taylor, I guess this is as good a day as any for my official tracking debut! It was fun. This covers Oklahoma.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-43	16	93	0	6,148	6,148	15,916	38.63%

 

MTC1: 4,299/6,212 - 69.2% sold 🔥

MTC2: 812/4,576 - 17.7% sold

MTC3: 957/4,492 - 21.3% sold

 

No actual sellouts just yet but a few of my MTC1s are at 90%+ capacity already.

 

No relevant Day 1 comps as this is just crazy. T-0 comps below which I expect to rise much higher shortly as more shows are added.

 

T-0 Comps
Barbie					0.622x	=	$13.12m
Oppenheimer					1.263x	=	$13.26m
Barbenheimer					0.417x	=	$13.17m

 

Might drop in with an Equalizer 3 prediction in a bit.

[keysersoze123]

Taylor Swift Eras Tours MTC1 Saturday - 226319/1002772 4831886.31 5407 shows. 

 

At least show times are more like blockbusters. Friday will sellout everything and so I am expecting sat/sun to be crazy as well. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by keysersoze123

[SpiderByte]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Oh defintely, but OW is shaping up to be such a monster it could have terrible legs and still be a success. 

Well concert movies always do well since they're usually pretty cheap to make.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 @Porthos I hope you will start tracking Eras tours sales in Sacramento. Friday seems more like "previews" to me. At MTC1 I see ~2800 shows while saturday have 5407 shows !!!

 

Funny you should mention that.

 

Might, just might, have some info for this thread in about 15 minutes... 

[Nova]

30 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Sure she has fans in their 30s, but I don't think they are the main ones going to her concert movie. Maybe they buy her newest albums, but this movie is going to be attracting mainly her younger audiences.

Are we talking about the same 30+ year olds who make friendship bracelets to exchange at her concerts cause if so then you better believe those same people will be lined up for this movie. 

 

Her fans are all die hards regardless of their age. And she’s only gotten bigger and bigger and bigger that almost feels like most people i meet are self proclaimed swifties. 

 

It’s actually wild in my opinion but I am

also a self proclaimed swiftie and will be attending this concert movie just like i attended the real life thing 😝

 

[WrathOfHan]

23 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I think this is going to be extremely frontloaded

Second week sales are nowhere near opening weekend. It looks like it's keeping the first Dolby show from KOTFM at most theaters which sounds about right given both of their runtimes.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

 

More showings just became available 👀